Bermuda Championship Betting Preview: Plenty of Value in Weak Field

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: October 26, 2021 5:13 AM EDT • 4 min 54 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

NICHOLASVILLE, KENTUCKY - JULY 15: Russell Knox of Scotland plays his second shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the Barbasol Championship at Keene Trace Golf Club on July 15, 2021 in Nicholasville, Kentucky. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by ANDY LYONS / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

We cashed an outright ticket with Hideki Matsuyama at +1200 to win the Zozo Championship last week. Let’s keep it rolling with our Bermuda Championship betting preview.

The PGA Tour returns from its abbreviated, one-event Asia swing for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. Brian Gay returns to defend his 2020 title.

The tournament's low prestige has led to many players withdrawing early in the week. However, the 2021 Bermuda Championship will award full FedEx Cup points and an invite to the 2022 Masters.

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Here are my outright, matchup, and prop picks for the PGA Tour’s Bermuda Championship in Southampton, Bermuda.

Bermuda Championship Odds

Matthew Fitzpatrick: +1000 (DraftKings Sportsbook | +1000 (FanDuel Sportsbook) | +1000 (BetMGM)Christiaan Bezuidenhout: +1200 | +1400 | +1400Mito Pereira: +1600 | +2000 | +2000Patrick Reed: +2000 | +1800 | +1400Seamus Power: +2000 | +2200 | +2500Hayden Buckley: +2500 | +2700 | +2800Chad Ramey: +2800 | +3300 | +3500Matthias Schwab: +3500 | +3300 | +3000Adam Hadwin: +3500 | +3100 | +3000Taylor Pendrith: +3500 | +4100 | +4000

Bermuda Championship Betting Odds Analysis

The wide-open nature of this field is clearly seen in the discrepancies in the odds among the top legal U.S. sportsbooks. Danny Willett, the 2016 Masters champion, is +2700 and +2800 at FanDuel and BetMGM, respectively, but just +4000 at DraftKings.

Reed is the field's top-ranked player at No. 24 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but DraftKings is giving him just a 4.76 percent chance of winning. BetMGM favors Reed — the other former Masters champ in the field — the most while giving him an implied win probability of 6.67 percent.

Port Royal Golf Course Betting Profile

Famed golf course architect Robert Trent Jones designed Port Royal. It measures just 6,828 yards but plays to a par of 71.

Gay won last year’s tournament in a playoff over Wyndham Clark at 15-under par. Brendon Todd took the inaugural running of the event in 2019 by four strokes at minus-24.

The three par 5s range from 507 to 553 yards. Three of the four par 3s top 200 yards, and each one played above par last fall. The Par 4s range from 350 to 458 yards, with six of the 11 shorter than 400 yards.

The easiest hole on the course last year was the 517-yard, par-5 seventh with a scoring average of 4.68 strokes. The toughest was the 235-yard, par-3 16th with a stroke average of 3.34.

Bermuda Championship Key Betting Stats

Strokes Gained: Around-the-GreenStrokes Gained: Driving AccuracyPar 3 efficiency: 200-225 yardsPar 4 efficiency: 350-400 yards

Port Royal’s tight and short design takes the emphasis off the long ball while demanding accuracy off the tee. Strong iron and wedge play are also much more important than driving.

Focus on the specific ranges for the par 3s and 4s, as the par 5s made up three of the nine holes to play below par last year.

Bermuda Championship Betting Picks

To win: Russell Knox (+4500 at BetMGM), Denny McCarthy (+5000 at DraftKings), Cameron Percy (+10000 at FanDuel)

Tournament matchup: Matthew Fitzpatrick vs. Patrick Reed (+145 at DraftKings), Chad Ramey vs. Garrick Higgo (+148 at FanDuel)

First-round leader: Adam Hadwin (+4500 at DraftKings)

Top USA player: Patrick Reed (+1000 at FanDuel)

Lowest score - Group C: Sahith Theegala (+350 at BetMGM)

Bermuda Championship Outright Picks

Russell Knox (+4500)

Knox is averaging 1.16 total strokes gained on the field per round over eight career rounds at Port Royal. He tied for 16th in this event last year following back-to-back missed cuts over his previous two events during the fall swing. The Scotsman is a two-time PGA Tour champ after most recently winning the European Tour’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Open over a strong field in 2018.

Knox was 38th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy last season, averaging 0.50 Strokes Gained: Approach per round over 80 measured rounds. Winds are expected to range from 15 to 26 miles per hour from Thursday to Sunday in Southampton, and Knox leads this field with an average of 1.17 strokes gained per round in strong winds, according to PGA Splits.

He’s just +3700 at FanDuel and is a strong value play at BetMGM.

Denny McCarthy (+5000)

McCarthy tied for fourth here last year and for 15th in 2019, shooting minus-12 and minus-13, respectively. He enters this week at No. 240 in the OWGR, but McCarthy ranked as high as 153rd this year.

He averaged 0.43 Strokes Gained: Putting per round during the 2020-21 PGA Tour season, and the 28-year-old also gained strokes around the greens. McCarthy is among the most experienced in this field at Port Royal, and he can lean heavily on his flat-stick strength.

Cameron Percy (+10000)

Percy has lost an average of 0.09 strokes per round on the field at Port Royal, but he’s one of just 15 playing this week who have logged the maximum of eight rounds in the Bermuda Championship. He tied for 26th last year and for 48th in 2019.

Though he struggles with the putter and around the greens, Percy averaged 0.61 Strokes Gained: Approach per round last season. He was also 16th on the PGA Tour in Par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards and 63rd in driving accuracy.

Bermuda Championship Matchup Picks

Matthew Fitzpatrick vs. Patrick Reed (+145)

The value is strong on Reed to win this tournament at +2000, especially relative to Fitzpatrick's +1000 odds as this week's betting favorite. However, there's always the risk of the highest-profile golfers not being fully devoted in a tournament like this one. The plus-money play in the head-to-head matchup is just fine by me.

Reed hasn't played at Port Royal before, but he was 68th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy last year, and he specializes in the short game.

Chad Ramey vs. Garrick Higgo (+148)

Ramey will play his fourth straight PGA Tour event after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour. He missed the cut during the Fortinet Championship, but Ramey has progressed while finishing tied for 63rd in the Sanderson Farms Championship and tied for 14th in the Shriners Children's Open. He's up to 167th in the OWGR, but the 29-year-old is an undeserving favorite in this matchup

Higgo begins the week at No. 51 in the world, even after missing the cut during his first three events of the 2021-22 European and PGA Tour seasons. Following two wins on the Euro circuit this year, he recorded his first PGA Tour victory at the Palmetto Championship in mid-June, triumphing over a field stronger than the one Higgo will face this week.

Bermuda Championship Top Prop Picks

First-round leader: Adam Hadwin (+4500)

Hadwin is tied for 11th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average after three events this season. He missed the cut at the Fortinet Championship, but Hadwin tied for 45th at the Sanderson Farms Championship before tying for sixth at the Shriners Children's Open.

The Canadian tied for 16th on Tour in Par 4 efficiency: 350-400 yards last season, and he's long benefitted from a strong short game.

Top USA player: Patrick Reed (+1000)

While I like the golfers with the higher odds in my outright picks this week, I still want a fair bit of exposure to Reed as the field's top-ranked player.

The top American market is particularly thin this week. A 10-1 return on the major winner and nine-time PGA Tour champ is too valuable to ignore.

Lowest score - Group C: Sahith Theegala (+350)

Theegala ranges from +3400 to +5000 to win the Bermuda Championship among our top sportsbooks. He tied for eighth at the Sanderson Farms Championship to earn his first top-10 finish on the PGA Tour after racking up three such results on the KFT this year. He specializes in the short game and on the greens, making him a good fit for the short venue.