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Former President Donald Trump makes an appearance at a town hall meeting hosted by the conservative group Turning Point Action at Dream City Church in Phoenix on June 6, 2024. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Several key battleground states will likely decide the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump remains the betting favorite at our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) as we inch closer to the Nov. 5 election date; here's a look at where things stand from an odds perspective across every U.S. state and district.

With the majority of U.S. states galvanized on which presidential candidate they'll favor this fall – and the U.S. presidential odds reflect that – the fate of the 2024 election will come down to select states where the outcome is largely unknown.

Will betting favorite Donald Trump flip back the states he lost to Joe Biden in 2020? Or will the Democrats hold on to enough of their gains from four years ago to remain in power? And will there be any shocking reversals of long-standing trends in the more rooted states?

2024 electoral college map

2024 electoral college map
2024 electoral college map

While we wait for the drama to unfold, here's a detailed look at the presidential odds across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, along with the latest modeling projections for relevant states from renowned election forecaster, statistician and writer Nate Silver:

2024 state presidential odds

(U.S. state presidential odds as of June 30; Nate Silver polling data as of June 27)

Alabama

Electoral College Votes: 9
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+14006.7%0.5%
Republican-1000099.0%99.3%

Alabama has been consistent in its support of the Republican candidate, which has earned between 60.3% and 62.5% of the state's vote in every election since 2004. A Democratic candidate hasn't earned a majority in Alabama since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Do you believe in miracles? It doesn't matter, because you're not going to see one in Alabama. This state is as red as it gets, and will stay that way beyond Nov. 5.

Alaska

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+60014.3%12.6%
Republican-120092.3%87.1%

The odds are long for a Democratic candidate to earn Alaska's electoral college votes, but Biden's 42.8% share of the vote in 2020 was the highest for the Democrats since winning the state outright in 1964. Republicans have exceeded 50% of the vote every year since 1992.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: While projections suggest Alaska won't produce the same level of whitewash as other deep red states, there still isn't much reason for optimism among Democrats who will likely see Biden lose the gains he made here  in 2020

Voters wait in line at the polling place at Mini Social in old town Scottsdale on Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020. Voters said they waited over about an hour to vote.
Voters wait in line at the polling place at Mini Social in old town Scottsdale on Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020. Voters said they waited over about an hour to vote. David Wallace/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Arizona

Electoral College Votes: 11
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+52516.0%18.0%
Republican-95090.5%82.0%

The June 27 debate had a considerable impact on the betting odds for both parties, and the news isn't good at all for the Democrats. This race is no longer considered "close" – and that comes as a mild surprise after Biden finished with a razor-thin edge of 0.3% over Trump in the 2020 voting picture – flipping the state blue following five straight Republican victories.

Arizona has seen closer finishes than the majority of states since 1996, with both parties earning a minimum of 44.4% of the vote in every election since. Prior to that, Republicans dominated, capturing an average of 61% of the vote from 1976-1988.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The betting odds are more bullish on a Trump victory in Arizona, but both metrics make it quite clear that the road to a repeat performance from the Democrats has never been steeper.

Arkansas

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.2%
Republican-500098.0%99.4%

The 21st Century has belonged to the Republicans in The Natural State. And voters have steadily shaded red at a higher rate, with Republicans seeing increased vote shares in five consecutive presidential elections entering 2024. Biden earned just 34.8% in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The question here isn't whether the Republicans will emerge victorious – that is a foregone conclusion – but rather, just how large the winning margin will be. A sixth straight vote share lift appears inevitable for the GOP.

California

Electoral College Votes: 54 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-1000099.0%99.5%
Republican+14006.7%0.5%

The state with the most electoral college votes is a deep shade of blue. Californians have given the Democratic candidate more than 60% of the vote in each of the previous four elections, while a Republican nominee hasn't captured the state since 1988.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The metrics might differ, but both are saying the exact same thing. Trump has no chance at winning California.

Colorado

Electoral College Votes: 10 (⬆️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-140093.3%87.4%
Republican+65013.3%12.3%

Colorado has seen a dramatic increase in electoral college votes over the years (from 6 in 1968 to 10 in 2024) thanks to one of the fastest-growing populations in the U.S. And that's bad news for the Republicans, with the Centennial State voting blue at a record 55.4% majority in 2020. Democrats have won Colorado in each of the previous four elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Colorado will likely remain a Democrat stronghold, though the gap between the parties in Silver's polling data shrank slightly after the first debate.

Connecticut

Electoral College Votes: 7
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-250096.2%96%
Republican+85010.5%3.9%

Despite Biden's obvious struggles during the June 27 presidential debate, Democrats likely needn't worry about losing this traditional blue state. Democratic candidates have earned no less than 54 percent of the vote in every election since 1992, following five consecutive terms of Republican rule.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The presidential betting odds and Silver projections nearly land on the exact same chance of a Democratic victory – and it's quite close to 100 percent in both cases. This is one of the safest bets on the board.

Delaware

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-1000099.0%98.1%
Republican+14006.7%1.8%

Delaware residents have sided with the Democrats in emphatic fashion for more than three decades, and oddsmakers aren't expecting that to change in 2024. Biden earned nearly 59% of the vote in 2020 compared with just 39.8% for Trump; those numbers are nearly identical to the 2012 results, while 2008 saw a whopping 24.9% gap between the parties.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Don't expect any drama here on Election Night, with the Democrats firmly in control of the betting odds and Silver's model projecting an easy night in Delaware for Biden.

Florida

Electoral College Votes: 30 (⬆️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+70012.5%8.0%
Republican-160094.1%92.0%

Florida gains an electoral college vote in 2024 – and while the odds here aren't quite as pronounced as they are for other southern and midwest states, anything but a comfortable Republican victory will be seen as an upset. Trump earned 51.2% of the vote four years ago, the most successful showing by the GOP in the Sunshine State since 2004.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The progress being made by the Democrats in Florida (a 2.2% slice into the Republicans' lead over the previous 30 days of polling) isn't reflected in the odds – but it will be if the blue surge continues.

Dec 14, 2020; Athens, GA, USA; Voters line up on the first day of early voting for Georgia
Dec 14, 2020; Athens, GA, USA; Voters line up on the first day of early voting for Georgia's U.S. Senate runoffs at the Lyndon House Arts Center in Athens, Ga., on Monday, Dec. 14, 2020. Voters said it took about 15 minutes to vote. Joshua L. Jones-USA TODAY NETWORK

Georgia

Electoral College Votes: 16
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+31024.4%17.5%
Republican-46082.1%82.5%

Biden and the Democrats shocked the country last time out, ending a period of Republican dominance that had extended back to 1996. But the margin was an infinitesimal 0.2% – and oddsmakers aren't buying a repeat performance in 2024.

The biggest X-factor for the Democrats last time out was a groundswell of support from voters who had previously cast their ballots for alternate parties. Trump saw the Republican vote share shrink by just 1.5% from 2020, while Biden enjoyed a boost of nearly 4%.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: It's time for the Dems to worry about Georgia. Biden has made zero inroads in polling over the past month, and the odds shifted even further in Trump's favor following the initial debate.

Hawaii

Electoral College Votes: 4
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-190095.0%91.5%
Republican+75011.8%8.4%

You'll have a hard time convincing even the most optimistic Republican voter that Hawaii has a shot at turning red. The Dems have seen at least 62.2% of the vote in each of the past four presidential elections (including figures north of 70% in 2008 and 2012). A Republican hasn't won here since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The odds have adjusted slightly in the Republicans' favor over the past week, but Silver's projections still suggest the Dems are in for a one-sided victory in The Aloha State.

Idaho

Electoral College Votes: 4
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.2%
Republican-500098.0%99.0%

It's a little surprising that the Republicans aren't getting even lower odds here given just how dominant the party has been. Trump finished with an edge of more than 30% over Biden in 2020, the third consecutive presidential election in which the Republicans have finished with that large of an advantage. No Democrat has prevailed in Idaho since 1964.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Just how wild is the betting odds chasm for Idaho? Trump's -5000 odds of winning are equivalent to an NFL team being favored by 20.5 points. In other words, the Republicans are an incredibly safe play here.

Illinois

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-190095.0%97.2%
Republican+75011.8%2.6%

Oddsmakers expect The Illini State to run blue for the ninth consecutive presidential election, and that should surprise no one given the Democratic margin of victory four years ago. Biden finished with an edge of nearly 17% over Trump in 2020, the fourth straight time the Democrats have earned more than 55% of the vote in Illinois.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Despite being surrounded on all sides by states expected to endorse Trump for president, Illinois is firmly Democratic according to both metrics – but that lost electoral college vote might loom large.

Indiana

Electoral College Votes: 11
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.3%
Republican-500098.0%99.6%

The Hoosier State has been a Republican stronghold for the better part of 80 years, with only two Democratic wins in that span: Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Barack Obama in 2008. Don't expect a third blue wave this time around after Trump coasted to a 16% victory in 2020. Oddsmakers predict a similar result this November.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Those in areas where political wagering is legal might not have the stomach for a -5000 play – but given that there are several -10000 options that carry almost identical likelihoods according to Silver, this isn't actually a bad relative option at all.

Iowa

Electoral College Votes: 6
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+9509.5%3.6%
Republican-330097.1%96.4%

The Republicans have taken hold in an area that has seen more back-and-forth voting trends than the majority of U.S. states. Democrats and the GOP have split the previous 12 elections, with Iowa voting blue in six of seven presidential elections prior to the Republicans' back-to-back successes in 2016 and 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I hope you were able to grab the -1900 from my previous update, because that number is long gone. And given where Silver's projections are at the moment, the odds of a Trump win could get even shorter.

Kansas

Electoral College Votes: 6
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+85010.5%0.3%
Republican-250096.2%99.5%

Kansans are a consistent bunch when it comes to which presidential candidate to back. Trump was an emphatic winner in 2020 with a final margin of nearly 15% over Biden, the 14th straight time Kansas has voted red. But Biden narrowed the gap four years ago, with Hilary Clinton losing to Trump by a whopping 20.6% in 2016.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: This might be the strongest option of any one-sided Trump market – and if past history is any indication, bettors will need to move swiftly. These odds will likely be -5000 or lower before long.

Kentucky

Electoral College Votes: 8
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.2%
Republican-500098.0%99.6%

Kentucky is another Republican-dominant state carrying odds that seem a little too generous for the Democrats. Kentuckians have sided with the GOP at a 60.5% clip or higher in three consecutive presidential elections, with Trump earning 62.1% of the vote in 2020. Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win here, doing so in 1992 and again in 1996.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Kentucky is a great example of how quickly and dramatically the odds can shift – and why those interested in getting maximum value need to jump on any one-sided markets still offering reasonable payouts.

Louisiana

Electoral College Votes: 8
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%1.2%
Republican-500098.0%98.8%

Given recent history, it's hard to believe that a Republican candidate went 80 years between wins in Louisiana from 1876 to 1956. The tide has been turning significantly in the Bayou State, with the GOP winning the state in nine of the previous 11 presidential elections. Trump won with ease in 2020, earning 58.5% of the vote compared with just 39.9% for Biden.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Based on both the odds and Silver's projections, Louisiana might see a 20% gap between Trump and Biden, which would surpass Trump's margin of victory from four years ago. These eight electoral college votes are as secure as they come for the GOP.

Maine (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
DemocratOTBOTB50.5%
RepublicanOTBOTB49.3%

Maine (Congressional District 2)*

Electoral College Votes: 1
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+70012.5%6.7%
Republican-160094.1%92.7%

Oddsmakers anticipate a split in the congressional district vote for the third straight year, but it appears that the Republicans are expected to pick up the additional two votes for winning the overall state. Biden did so comfortably in 2020, beating Trump by more than 9%. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last Republican candidate to earn the majority vote.

* Maine is worth two votes as a state; each district is worth one additional vote.

Maryland

Electoral College Votes: 10
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-1500099.3%99.7%
Republican+16005.9%0.3%

If recent history is any indication, this could be one of the most one-sided state results on election night. Biden received more than twice the vote tally of Trump in 2020, extending a trend that's seen the Democratic candidate secure more than 60% of the vote in Maryland each of the previous four presidential elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Maryland has the distinction of being the most one-sided state in terms of betting odds – and Silver's projections agree. Maryland residents are nearly unanimous on their support for the Democrats.

Massachusetts

Electoral College Votes: 11
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-330097.1%99.3%
Republican+9509.5%0.7%

Another northeastern U.S. state, another expected landslide for the incumbent. Biden is coming off a staggering 32.5% margin of victory over Trump in 2020, the biggest-ever Democratic win in Massachusetts and the seventh straight time the party has earned at least 59.8% of the overall vote shares.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Republicans have actually stemmed the bleeding of late (+0.3% L30, +0.7% L7), but it'll likely have a similar impact to putting duct tape on a dam break. The Democrats should roll to victory yet again.

Demonstrators rally Monday, Nov. 23, 2020, as part of the the Driving for Democracy demonstration in Lansing
Demonstrators rally Monday, Nov. 23, 2020, as part of the the Driving for Democracy demonstration in Lansing. The event was sponsored by We Make Michigan. Ralliers say Michigan voters have voted, and want the Board of Canvassers to confirm Michigan's election results. Matthew Dae Smith/Lansing State Journal

Michigan

Electoral College Votes: 15 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11047.6%38.2%
Republican-14559.2%61.8%

Michigan might not possess the electoral college clout of years past, dropping to 15 votes ahead of the 2024 election after reaching a high watermark of 21 in the 1970s. But that still represents a critical share in the quest to reach 270.

Trump's dramatic flip of Michigan in 2016 was a catalyst for his stunning upset of Hilary Clinton. And while Biden returned the favor in 2020, this state is too close call as of mid-June, according to the sportsbooks. Expect plenty of odds movement on this one.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: If there's something for Democrats to cling to, it's that Michiganders didn't turn on Biden in the moments immediately following the debate. That said, Trump sitting north of 60% in Silver's latest projections has to be concerning for the Dems.

Minnesota

Electoral College Votes: 10
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-33076.8%65.9%
Republican+23030.3%34.1%

Minnesota's electoral college history is a fascinating one. While the Democrats have dominated the final results, earning the victory in 12 consecutive presidential elections, the margins of victory have been considerably thinner than other states with one-sided results. Biden finished with a 7.1% edge over Trump in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Republicans are creeping closer to making this a Democrat sweat (+0.3 L7, +0.2 L30). Trump senior presidential campaign adviser Chris LaCivita is confident that Trump can make even more gains here, and the rapidly shifting odds suggest that could be the case.

Mississippi

Electoral College Votes: 6
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+9509.5%3.6%
Republican-330097.1%96.1%

Another state that saw more than 80 years of Democrat dominance at one point, Mississippi has been decisively Republican for more than four decades now. Trump has enjoyed nearly 58% of the vote across his two presidential runs, while the Democrats haven't exceeded 44% since 1996. Carter was the last Democrat to taste victory here in 1976.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Trump's probability of victory are close to even across both the betting odds and Silver projections, and both numbers are high enough that this outcome is almost certainly locked in. At -3300, you could do worse.

Missouri

Electoral College Votes: 10
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+16005.9%0.3%
Republican-1500099.3%99.7%

It wasn't long ago that the Democratic and Republican votes were split almost right down the middle (2008, to be precise, when the Dems earned a narrow 0.1% win over the GOP). Fast forward 15 years, and the Republicans are expected to cruise to a seventh consecutive victory in Missouri following Trump's 15.4% margin of victory in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The betting value didn't last long here, with Missouri's presidential odds among the most one-sided of any state from the moment they were posted. You can go ahead and color this one red on your interactive electoral college map.

Montana

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬆️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+85010.5%2.4%
Republican-250096.2%97.5%

Democrats will almost certainly lose out on an additional electoral college vote in Montana, which sees an increase from three to four in 2024. Only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the state since 1968, and Trump had little trouble dispatching Biden after securing nearly 57% of the vote four years ago.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's really not much that Biden and Co. can do here. Montana is a deep shade of red, and the most recent odds, projections and polling data spell out another one-sided win for the Republicans this November.

Nebraska (Congressional District 1)*

Electoral College Votes: 1
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+16005.9%0.6%
Republican-1500099.3%99.2%

Nebraska (Congressional District 2)

Electoral College Votes: 1
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-13557.5%53.9%
Republican+10548.8%46.0%

Nebraska (Congressional District 3)*

Electoral College Votes: 1
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+14006.7%0.1%
Republican-1000099.0%99.4%

Democrats have struggled mightily in Nebraska since the state opted to divide its electoral college votes between three congressional districts. The Dems have managed a single vote just twice during that span (2008 and 2020), and oddsmakers believe that trend will continue in 2024. The Democrats are expected to take District 2, but have no shot in the other two.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: With Trump sitting north of 99% in Silver's projections in Districts 1 and 3, it would take an incredible unforeseen event for the Republicans to fall short of a majority of electoral college votes in Nebraska.

* Nebraska is worth two votes as a state; each district is worth one additional vote.

President Joe Biden gets a rousing welcome at a campaign event Feb. 4, 2024 at Pearson Community Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
President Joe Biden gets a rousing welcome at a campaign event Feb. 4, 2024 at Pearson Community Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mark Robison/RGJ / USA TODAY NETWORK

Nevada

Electoral College Votes: 6
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+22031.3%24.8%
Republican-30075.0%75.2%

Generally, as Nevada goes, so does the presidency: Over the past 11 elections, the winning party in the Silver State has secured the White House 10 times. The only exception? 2016, when Clinton won Nevada by 2.4% but ultimately lost the presidential race to Trump.

Biden gave the Democrats their fourth consecutive win in Nevada with an identical margin of victory in 2020, but the late June odds suggest Trump is set to flip the state and its half-dozen electoral college votes. This could be one of the most divisive battleground states in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Democrats lost ground to end the month, but still finished +1.5 L30 as they desperately look to retain a critical swing state. That said, they have a lot of work to do with Trump at around 75% to flip the state back.

New Hampshire

Electoral College Votes: 4
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-20066.7%62.6%
Republican+15040.0%37.4%

The Dems should feel good about their chances of retaining the presidential majority in New Hampshire, though recent close calls have the odds much closer than in most Democratic strongholds. Biden won comfortably in 2020, but Clinton's 0.3% sweat in 2016 and a slim 1.3% triumph in 2004 do little to allay the potential for a Republican surge.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Trump's decisive win over Biden at the first debate resulted in nearly a full percent of lift for the Republicans, but all that has done is make a Democrat victory here a superior betting value play following an odds shift in the Republicans' favor.

New Jersey

Electoral College Votes: 14
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-72587.9%84.5%
Republican+43018.9%15.5%

New Jersey has been a model of consistency when it comes to recent presidential voting habits. The victorious Democrats have pulled in between 56% and 58.5% of the overall vote in five of the previous six elections, fueling a run of eight straight wins for the blue side. The once-mighty Republican territory is widely expected to go to the Dems again in 2024.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver has the Democrats at nearly 85% to capture New Jersey; that isn't as high as it has been in prior months, but is still a strong enough statement to make the -725 odds a decent play relative to most states.

New Mexico

Electoral College Votes: 5
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-50083.3%79.3%
Republican+33023.3%20.3%

The Land of Enchantment has been anything but for the Republicans, who haven't sniffed victory in New Mexico in 20 years. Biden's 10.8% margin of victory was the second-largest over that span, and it eased any concerns over Hilary failing to gain 50% support four years earlier. Trump has picked up just 40.0% and 43.5% support in New Mexico in his two runs.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Those in legal betting regions might want to consider taking advantage of Trump's unpopularity in New Mexico. Voters there have treated him coolly in two elections, and it's looking likely to happen again.

New York

Electoral College Votes: 28 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-190095.0%97.5%
Republican+75011.8%2.5%

Even at an incredible -1900, betting on a Democratic presidential candidate to win New York seems like terrific value. Not only have the Democrats won the last nine elections in NY, six of those victories have come by 20% or more. That includes Biden's decisive win in 2020, when he earned 60.9% of the vote to trounce Trump (37.8%).

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Given where Silver's projections have landed, and New York's history of supporting the Dems, it's stunning that these odds aren't considerably longer. (Translation: They will be very soon.)

North Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 16 (⬆️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+46017.9%11.3%
Republican-57585.2%88.7%

Can the Democrats reclaim North Carolina? Oddsmakers are skeptical despite Biden gaining an additional 2.4% over Clinton's 2016 showing (Trump's overall vote share was virtually identical both years, landing between 49.8 and 49.9%).

Republicans have captured the majority of the presidential vote in North Carolina in 10 of the past 11 elections, but the last four races have been among the closest in the country. Trump needs a North Carolina victory, and oddsmakers believe he'll get it.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Things are looking bleak here for the Democrats, who lost polling ground they couldn't afford to give up (-0.4 L7, -0.3 L30). This might be one of the best value bets on the board given the high likelihood of a red win.

North Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.3%
Republican-500098.0%99.2%

You won't find many states more secure for the Republican Party than this one. Not only has the GOP earned the presidential vote in North Dakota during 20 of the previous 21 elections, but Trump absolutely eviscerated the Democrats in both 2016 and 2020, beating Clinton by nearly 36 percentage points and besting Biden by 33.3%.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver has projected North Dakota to once again have one of the widest margins of victory for the Republicans – and while the state is only worth three votes, the security of such a big win has to please the GOP.

Ohio

Electoral College Votes: 18 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+70012.5%4.4%
Republican-160094.1%95.6%

Ohio has been one of the most fascinating battleground states in the U.S. for some time. Biden's 2020 presidential win marked the first time in 14 elections that the winner of Ohio did not go on to capture the presidency (in this case, Trump). The long-term trend bodes well for Trump, who beat both Clinton and Biden by 8.1% in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Democrats have improved greatly in polling here over the past 30 days (+1.6%), but they still face a gap of nearly 9% and are running out of time to make up the rest of that shortfall.

Oklahoma

Electoral College Votes: 7
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.1%
Republican-500098.0%99.9%

There's nothing lucky about the number seven in Oklahoma for the Democrats, who likely won't come anywhere close to being competitive here. Trump has racked up more than 65% of the vote in consecutive elections, and the Republican Party has surpassed that threshold five straight times overall. No Democrat has won Oklahoma since 1964.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Based on what we're seeing from Silver's projections, we shouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma is called for Trump based on the lowest percentage of counted ballots. Could Trump earn 70% of the votes? It's possible.

Oregon

Electoral College Votes: 8 (⬆️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-190095.0%95.0%
Republican+75011.8%4.9%

The Pacific Northwest is Biden Country, and the 2024 election should result in an extension of the Democrats' dominance in the region. Biden breezed to a win of nearly 16 percentage points in 2020, the largest margin of victory in Oregon since 2008. No Republican candidate has finished within double digits of his Democratic counterpart since 2004.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: With identical numbers attached to the current odds and Silver's most up-to-date prognostication, it sure seems as if a Dem win in Oregon can be written in permanent marker. And if that's the case, -1900 is a strong play.

Barb Skonieczki, judge of elections for the 5th Ward, 14th District polling site, sanitizes a booth set up for voters at Trinity United Methodist Church on June 2, 2020, in Erie.
Barb Skonieczki, judge of elections for the 5th Ward, 14th District polling site, sanitizes a booth set up for voters at Trinity United Methodist Church on June 2, 2020, in Erie. Pennsylvania's primary election was postponed from April 28 because of COVID-19 concerns. GREG WOHLFORD/ERIE TIMES-NEWS via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Pennsylvania

Electoral College Votes: 19 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+15040.0%33.8%
Republican-20066.7%66.2%

Once a political powerhouse with 38 electoral college votes, Pennsylvania is down to half that number. But make no mistake, locking down this state will go a long way toward Biden or Trump securing the presidency. And this battle is a tight one as of mid-June.

Biden responded to Trump flipping Pennsylvania red for the first time since 1988 by earning 50.0% of the vote to narrowly fend off his GOP rival; Trump is a slight favorite to return the favor this year. This state has repeatedly produced some of the closest races on Election Day, and 2024 looks to be no different.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Pennsylvania produced one of the highest Democrat polling gains of the month at +1.4%. The Democrats very likely need to win Pennsylvania to retain the presidency, and while the path remains steep, gains are gains.

Rhode Island

Electoral College Votes: 4
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-190095.0%94.9%
Republican+75011.8%5.1%

Nearly 100 years of Democratic superiority in Rhode Island is expected to continue into this year's presidential election. Democrats have won the previous nine times in the smallest state in the union, with no Republican candidate earning more than 38.9% of the vote since 1988. Biden earned a resounding 21% win over Trump last election.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: There's little doubt how the Rhode Island vote will play out; in fact, Silver projects that the state will produce the ninth-largest margin of victory among Democratic victories.

South Carolina

Electoral College Votes: 9
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+85010.5%1.3%
Republican-250096.2%98.5%

A Democrat hasn't declared victory in South Carolina since Jimmy Carter, and it doesn't appear as if that streak will end in 2024. Trump waltzed to double-digit victories over Clinton and Biden in 2016 and 2020, respectively, and the state hasn't seen a truly close finish since 1980, when Ronald Reagan notched a tight 1.6 percentage-point win over Carter.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Don't be surprised to see South Carolina as the next state to have Republican victory odds at -4000 or lower. This race isn't much of a race at all, which is why it's so surprising that the number is "only" -2500.

South Dakota

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+14006.7%1.0%
Republican-1000099.0%99.0%

It's OK if you don't remember the last time a Democrat won South Dakota. You probably weren't alive to see it. Republicans have earned every electoral college vote in South Dakota since 1968, and the last three Democratic presidential candidates haven't earned 40% of the vote. Trump exceeded 61% in both of his wins here.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: South Dakota is one of nine U.S. states where Silver is projecting a Republican victory of more than 25 points. And books are wise to this, having already dropped the GOP odds into unplayable territory.

Tennessee

Electoral College Votes: 11
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.2%
Republican-500098.0%99.7%

The security of locking down a state with double-digit electoral college votes is sure to hearten the Republicans. Trump coasted to the win with identical 60.7% vote shares vs. Clinton and Biden, and it's reasonable to expect the 2024 number to land in the same area. The GOP has recorded a 20-point win over the Democrats in three straight elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I suggested prior to this update that the Republicans should have been listed at -5000 or lower – and it didn't take long for the books to make that very adjustment. Based on Silver's figure, this could drop lower.

Texas

Electoral College Votes: 40 (⬆️ 2)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+65013.3%5.2%
Republican-140093.3%94.8%

A two-point increase in Texas' electoral college vote is a significant development that gives the Republican Party even more of an edge in the southern states. But it's notable that the Democrats have made major inroads in recent years, from 38% of the vote in 2000 to the 46.5% that Biden secured in his 2020 head-to-head with Trump.

However, Texas isn't quite in "battleground territory" yet. Republicans have won here in every election since 1980, and if the Lone Star State's population continues to grow at this rate, Texas will become an even more valuable piece in the Republicans' presidential strategy.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Texas as a battleground? Maybe not, but the Democrats (+1.8 L30) are intent on making things interesting. Another 30-day stretch like the one the Dems just had, and there will be chatter a-plenty.

Utah

Electoral College Votes: 6
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%1.5%
Republican-500098.0%98.2%

Utah's presidential voting results have been a legitimate mixed bag for the heavily favored Republicans. On one hand, the Democrats still can't seem to get more than 38% of the support in the Mormon-heavy state. But a Republican Party that routinely drew more than 70% of the vote before Trump then put forth a candidate who earned just 45.5% in 2016 and 58.1% in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Utah natives might not be ga-ga for Trump, but they're making it increasingly clear that they're no fans of Biden. The Democrats have seen a staggering 4.3% drop in the polls over the past 30 days. This one is over.

Vermont

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-500098.0%98.4%
Republican+11008.3%0.7%

The Green Mountain State has become one of the Democratic Party's most devoted allies. Three of the previous four Democratic candidates have earned at least 66.1% of the vote. That includes Biden, who landed on that number en route to a 35.4% margin of victory over Trump. These might be Biden's most secure electoral college votes of all.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: I don't usually recommend getting anything down on a -5000 play, but if you have to wager on something, a Dem win in Vermont should return a little pocket change. Silver is projecting Vermont to have the second-largest Democratic margin of victory at 26.5%

Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 13
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-31075.6%77.2%
Republican+22530.8%22.8%

Virginia is one of only a handful of U.S. states that has experienced a recent seismic shift in its presidential loyalties. After being a predominantly red haven from 1952 to 2004, Virginia embraced Barack Obama in consecutive elections and remained faithful to the Democrats in each of the next two elections. Biden recorded a 10-point win over Trump in 2020.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Republicans have to be happy with how things are shifting in Virginia (+0.6 L7, +0.3 L30), even though the overall gap is still daunting. It was only 20 years ago that Virginia was a deep red state, and the odds suggest a 2024 flip is quite possible.

Washington

Electoral College Votes: 13
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-1000099.3%94.9%
Republican+14005.9%4.9%

The West Coast loves its Democratic presidential nominees, and Washington, in particular, has thrown plenty of support toward the blue. Biden finished nearly 20 percentage points ahead of Trump in the 2020 election, extending the Democrats' foothold in Washington State to 32 years (and likely counting, given where the oddsmakers stand).

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: This is one of the rare times when the odds are actually more optimistic about a one-sided result than Silver's polling data. The Democrats should take the state without much of a struggle, but a single-digit lead in the latest polling isn't going to make many in Biden's camp happy.

Washington, D.C.

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat-330097.1%99.9%
Republican+9509.5%0.0%

If you can call any of the electoral college votes "freebies" for either party, DC is as automatic as it gets for the Democrats. No Republican candidate has received more than 10 percentage points of support in the district since 1988. Biden's 92.2 percent vote share in 2020 was the second-highest in history, behind only the 92.5% that Obama secured in 2008.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: It's the surest bet in this article. Silver is projecting that the Democrats will win the U.S. capital by a whopping 78.1%. Whatever the number you're getting on the Democrats, you're going to make a profit.

West Virginia

Electoral College Votes: 4 (⬇️ 1)
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.6%
Republican-500098.0%99.1%

The only good news to come out of West Virginia in 2020 was that Biden stemmed the tide of the Democrats losing presidential vote share following a five-election slide. But that victory rang hollow for the Dems, who were soundly routed when Trump (68.6%) notched nearly a 40-point win. Republicans have claimed West Virginia in six straight elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: Silver is expecting yet another Republican rout – and it appears likelier by the day that the margin of victory will be closer to the 2016 result.

Election workers assist drive-up voters Thursday, October 29, 2020 at the Kenosha Municipal Building in Kenosha, Wis.
Election workers assist drive-up voters Thursday, October 29, 2020 at the Kenosha Municipal Building in Kenosha, Wis. Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Wisconsin

Electoral College Votes: 10
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11047.6%40.3%
Republican-14559.2%59.6%

Ten of the most important electoral college votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will come courtesy of The Badger State. And as with the previous two elections, the party that ultimately prevails here will probably do so by the slimmest of margins. 

Just seven tenths of a percentage point has decided the last two Wisconsin verdicts, with Trump pulling off the upset in 2016 and Biden returning the state to the Dems in 2020. Wisconsin was even tighter than that earlier in the century, with the 2000 election gap just 0.2% and the 2004 election seeing a four-tenths gap.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: The Democrats had moved back into a virtual tie with the Republicans in the odds race, but have slipped back down – and Silver's projections confirm a comfortable GOP edge. Still, we're likely headed for another photo finish in Wisconsin, likely making this state betting market one of the most volatile.

Wyoming

Electoral College Votes: 3
PartyOddsImplied ProbabilityNate Silver Projections
Democrat+11008.3%0.1%
Republican-500098.0%99.4%

Don't expect any drama in Wyoming, which has been under Republican control in presidential voting since 1964. And while Biden closed the gap here by a notable margin over Clinton, he still finished an incredible 43.3% behind a victorious Trump. Republicans have earned a minimum of 64.8% of the vote in Wyoming during each of the past six elections.

U.S. presidential betting odds vs. Nate Silver projections: No individual state is expected to have a larger Republican margin of victory than Wyoming; Silver predicts a Trump victory of more than 43 points there. Lock these three votes in for the GOP.

2020 electoral college results

2020 electoral college results
2020 electoral college results

The 2020 presidential election saw Biden win a total of 306 electoral votes, easily surpassing the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. Trump garnered 232 electoral votes. The outcome was largely influenced by Biden's success in flipping several key battleground states that Trump had won in the 2016 election, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, was particularly crucial, pushing Biden past the required 270 threshold. His wins in Michigan (16 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) also contributed significantly to his total. Additionally, Biden's win in traditionally Republican-leaning states like Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes) demonstrated his broad appeal and the shifting political landscape in these regions.

The 2020 election was marked by unprecedented voter turnout and a significant number of mail-in ballots, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This led to a prolonged vote-counting process, particularly in the key swing states. Despite numerous legal challenges and claims of electoral fraud by President Trump and his allies, the results were certified by each state.

The Electoral College formally cast its votes on Dec. 2020, affirming Biden's win, which was subsequently confirmed by Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, following the certification process.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump remains the betting favorite (-125) to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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