Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Saturday, Aug. 1
My Liberty vs. Mercury prediction expects New York to end Phoenix's three-game win streak today.
Tipoff from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix is set for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). The Liberty are a 2.5-point betting favorite - they also have the third-shortest WNBA championship odds - and this is a game they have to win, with a five-game lead over the Mercury for the final spot in the playoffs.
🏀 Liberty vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty ML (-130 via bet365) | 1u → 0.77u | The Liberty have won both head-to-head meetings with the Mercury by a combined 17 points. |
| Under 175.5 (-110 via bet365) | 0.5u → 0.45u | Both matchups of the season series have finished Under the closing total, and this mark is five points higher. |
| Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+100 via bet365) | 1u → 1u | The Mercury are 11th in assists allowed, which opens the door for Breanna Stewart to clear this line for a fourth time in five games. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.22 units
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🏆 Who will win Liberty vs. Mercury?
I predict the Liberty to earn a three-point win over the Mercury on Saturday. Despite underperforming as the preseason title favorite, New York's season-long net rating is nearly seven points better than Phoenix's mark. That should illustrate how much the Mercury have struggled after reaching last year's WNBA Finals. I like the Liberty's chances of prevailing on Saturday.
Score prediction: Liberty 88, Mercury 85
💰 Liberty vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Liberty ML (-130)
I don't expect this moneyline price tag to last long, considering New York is as high as -142 to win outright.
The Liberty will be motivated to get back in the win column after losing to the Las Vegas Aces on Thursday, in which they had a huge call go against them in the final seconds. It snapped New York's own three-game win streak.
New York has won both head-to-head meetings with Phoenix by a combined 17 points.
I expect a third win on Saturday, so I'd take the Liberty's moneyline value at -135 or better.
🔥 Best Liberty vs. Mercury player prop bet
Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+100)
There are many reasons to pounce on the Over for Breanna Stewart's assist prop.
For one, the Mercury rank 11th in the league in assists allowed. They have strong isolation defenders to throw at someone like Stewart, but the Liberty star can still make them pay by finding an open teammate.
Stewart has done just that in three of her past four games, averaging five assists on 8.4 potential dimes. Stewart dished four assists in her last meeting with Phoenix.
Don't mind me, as I take advantage of this plus-money price tag at bet365.
🚀 Liberty vs. Mercury same-game parlay
With bet365 offering the best price on all three of my Liberty vs. Mercury predictions, it's no surprise I've also put together a parlay at that shop. This SGP has a juicy +600 payout. Stewart has honestly been playing like an MVP and DPOY candidate on an underperforming team, so I like her chances of delivering for New York in a road win.
💵 Liberty vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Liberty ML (-130)
- Under 175.5 (-110)
- Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+100)
Best odds: +600 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.6u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 78-97-1 | +8.99 units ✅ | 7.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 28-18 | +8.87 units ✅ | 19.4% ✅ |
| Parlays | 5-38 | -1.98 units ❌ | -46% ❌ |
📊 Live Liberty vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Liberty vs. Mercury
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 1
- Tipoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: ABC
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