MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, August 1
Half of my best home run predictions today are either covered with the top home run-hitting team in the Majors (the Washington Nationals), or from the Majors’ most hitter-friendly ballpark (Coors Field).
With my other two MLB home run picks, I get alongside the red-hot Nick Gonzales amid his hottest streak of the season, and add another player who has homered in his career off of today’s opposing starting pitcher in Trea Turner.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales to hit a home run (+930 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 2.33u | Gonzales has great value to extend his 15-game hitting streak with a home run today |
| Trea Turner to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Turner has been one of the lone bright spots for a struggling Phillies offense over the last month |
| James Wood to hit a home run (+335 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.84u | I'm looking to Wood to extend the Nationals' MLB lead in home runs |
| Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+265 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.66u | Goodman is a great bet to homer amid trade deadline rumors |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 5.33 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Nick Gonzales (+930)
Nick Gonzales enters the weekend amid a 15-game hit streak, during which he raised his batting average 10 points with seven extra-base hits. The baseball looks like a beach ball to the righty, as he has 10 multi-hit games in that stretch.
Gonzales is 0-for-3 in a small sample size against Andrew Abbott, but four different current Pirates sluggers have taken the southpaw deep. Abbott has also allowed 13 of his 17 home runs to right-handed batters, and his 5.05 home ERA leaves him susceptible to more long balls from an improved Pirates offense.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: What a difference a year makes
A year ago the Pirates ranked dead-last in the Majors with 117 home runs. They have already exceeded that total this year, as their 138 home runs entering the weekend was tied for eighth-most.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Trea Turner (+600)
Bryce Harper might think the Phillies need help at the trade deadline, but Trea Turner did his part offensively in July. Turner finished the month with seven home runs and a .897 OPS, a far cry from his poor .223/.273/.349 slash line through the end of May.
Turner had a stretch over a month from June 15 to late July where he ranked 32nd in ISO. He also didn’t compromise any of his slash line numbers despite being a free swinger (2.9% walk rate) as he logged a .364/.400/.758 slash line over that stretch.
Turner is 3-for-6 with a home run in his career against Baz, and that raises his ceiling to go yard tonight.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: James Wood (+335)
James Wood is another player who has homered off of today’s opposing starting pitcher, going 2-for-3 with a home run against Reynaldo Lopez.
Wood’s 10 leadoff home runs this season are tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most in the Majors. He is one of three players who have shown a unique blend of power and speed while recording four games this season with a home run and stolen base. He and teammate CJ Abrams also made history becoming just the second pair of teammates ever with 25-plus home runs and 15-plus stolen bases each through a team’s first 105 games.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+265)
Once the Minnesota Twins announced they wouldn’t be selling at the trade deadline which in essence took Ryan Jeffers off the table for opposing teams, that quickly caused Hunter Goodman’s name to surface as a top trade deadline candidate.
Part of what makes Goodman such an attractive asset is that his slash line numbers are actually better away from home and are not inflated by the Coors Field altitude. But I won’t pass up an opportunity to back a player with 31 home runs (13 of which have come at home) when facing Luinder Avila.
Avila has only allowed one home run in his previous 20 ⅔ innings, but he is due regression in this start thanks to his 52.1% fly ball rate.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Nick Gonzales to hit a home run (+930)
- Trea Turner to hit a home run (+521)
- James Wood to hit a home run (+335)
- Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+259)
Best odds: +99788 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 99.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 207-328-1 | +44.68 units ✅ | +13.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 126-265 | +33.61 units ✅ | +17.3% ✅ |
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