Brewers vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: Game 5 World Series Odds, Betting Splits
The Tampa Bay Rays staved off elimination after being down to their last three outs with a 12th-inning rally against the Milwaukee Brewers yesterday. My Brewers vs. Rays prediction expects Milwaukee to end that magic and take home the World Series title tonight behind another dominant outing from Jacob Misiorowski.
While Milwaukee got home runs from two players that batted seventh or lower in yesterday’s lineup, it's a talented slugger at the top of the lineup that I expect to go deep today.
As of this writing Tampa Bay had not yet announced its starting pitching plans (either Drew Rasmussen or another bullpen game) to oppose Misiorowski. But nonetheless, Milwaukee has ticked up from -149 betting favorites to -154 without the news. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX).
Brewers vs. Rays picks & odds: World Series Game 5
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers ML | -154 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 0.65 units |
| Jacob Misiorowski Under 3.5 hits allowed | +110 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.1 units |
| Jackson Chourio to hit a home run | +525 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 1.31 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 28 at 9 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.06 units
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Brewers vs. Rays prediction & best bet
Brewers ML (-154)
While Tampa Bay prevented Milwaukee from being the first team ever with nine straight wins in a single postseason, it only improved to 2-5 against the Brewers this year with yesterday’s dramatic comeback win. Manager Kevin Cash was so desperate to extend his season by another day that he burned tonight’s projected starter, Nick Martinez, for 33 pitches yesterday.
Entering this series, Milwaukee’s top five reliever combination of Megill/Ashby/Uribe/Hall/Romero had combined for a 0.77 ERA, 2.64 xERA, 2.67 FIP, 26.7% strikeout rate, and 0.80 WHIP in 35 innings. That was a big advantage over Tampa Bay’s top five of Baker/Booser/Seymour/Kelly/Wells, who combined for a 2.92 ERA, 3.05 xERA, 2.98 FIP, 25.5% strikeout rate, and 0.97 WHIP over 24.2 innings.
With Bryan Baker especially logging his first appearance of more than five outs since July 2024 yesterday, I have real questions about who Tampa Bay will turn to in the later innings.
📡 SBR Edge: History is not on the Rays' side
Tampa Bay became the fifth team to force a Game 5 in the World Series when trailing 3-0, but none of the previous four forced a Game 6.
Best Brewers vs. Rays player prop bet
Jacob Misiorowski Under 3.5 hits allowed (+110)
Misiorowski's first two playoff starts this season had been his two lowest from a whiff percentage standpoint all season. But the Rays had horrible numbers against pitches with a perceived velocity of 100-plus mph. In that split, they were 8-for-71 (.113) with zero extra-base hits and a .113 slugging percentage (the fourth-worst average and second-worst slugging percentage). By comparison, that was much worse than the rest of MLB batters, who combined for a .190 batting average (503-2642), 136 extra-base hits, and a .237 slugging percentage in that split.
He paid off that advantage by holding Tampa Bay to four hits over five innings in Game 1. Velocity was not a concern, as he threw 38 100-plus mph pitches, beating Aroldis Chapman’s previous single-game high in a World Series game by 14.
Misiorowski was wise to change up his game plan against Rays hitters. He threw his second-lowest percentage of 4-seam fastballs in two-strike counts, as Rays hitters were 1-for-11 on non-four-seamers in Game 1, and 3-for-6 with zero strikeouts on at-bats that ended with that pitch.
Brewers vs. Rays home run prediction
Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+525)
It’s difficult to write a matchup-based narrative for this home run pick, as another “all hands on deck” approach from the Rays leaves it to be anyone’s guess who Jackson Chourio will face in each at-bat. But he has been so hot at the plate regardless, and I’m banking on his approach that has led to base hits and contact to change slightly and result in a ball leaving the yard tonight.
After the first two home games of this series, Chourio’s 19 career playoff RBI were the most in MLB history by a player before turning 23. And his eight RBI entering the week were the third most by a Brewer in a single postseason run.
Chourio has six home runs in his postseason career, and he became the third National League hitter with at least six homers and 19 RBI in their first 20 playoff games. He also has a team-high 10 hits in this World Series, and joined Babe Ruth (1928) for the most hits through the first four games of a single World Series. In the process, he also passed Charlie Moore (1982) for the third-most hits in a World Series in franchise history.
Live Brewers vs. Rays odds
Brewers vs. Rays injuries
How to watch Brewers vs. Rays: World Series Game 5
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 28
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
- TV: FOX
- Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (Postseason: 1-0, 2.70 ERA)
- Rays starter: TBD
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