NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions, Player Props for Oct. 28

We have a loaded 12-game slate to find value with our NBA best bets today.

I get the ball rolling early with a side in the Heat vs. Hawks matchup, which opens the slate with a 7 p.m. ET tipoff. I also have a play on the total in Nuggets vs. Pelicans, and I wrap up the night with a player prop in the final game on the slate, Lakers vs. Clippers, which tips off at 10:30 p.m. ET.

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Oct. 28)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Picks submitted: Oct. 28 at 10:53 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 3.9 units | Max profit: 3.5 units

Best NBA bet today

Heat vs. Hawks prediction: Heat +2.5 (-110)

I'm not buying that the Hawks are a better team than the Heat after just four regular-season games. These teams are tied for the 14th-shortest NBA championship odds at +6000, but I wouldn't give the Hawks a 1.64% chance to win outright.

The Heat are struggling with chemistry, more so offensively, but their defense should be good enough to keep this game close. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo have each been selected to at least five All-Defensive teams, and the Hawks have scored fewer points in each of their games since their season opener.

Play to: +1.5 (-108)

More NBA picks & player props for Wednesday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans prediction: Over 240.5 (-110)

The Nuggets are picking up right where they left off last season defensively.

They rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating this season (119.3) after ranking 21st in 2025-26 (116.0). The Pelicans, meanwhile, rank eighth in offensive rating this season (115.8) and 23rd in defensive rating (118.2).

Neither of these teams plays defense, and both are capable of putting up 130 or more points on any given night. In a 141-135 Nuggets win Saturday, these teams combined for 252 points in regulation.

Play to: Over 241.5 (-109)

Lakers vs. Clippers prediction: Walker Kessler Over 22.5 points + rebounds (-115)

The Clippers don't have the bodies needed to a) stop Walker Kessler as a lob threat and b) keep him off the glass.

Isaiah Jackson, who is 6-foot-8, was the primary defender on the 7-foot-2 Kessler when these teams met Friday, and Kessler finished with 22 points and eight rebounds. The Clippers also tried to throw Brook Lopez at Kessler, but the Lakers center torched him for eight points in just 4:45.

As of publication, the Lakers have yet to submit their injury report, so I would bet Kessler's Over early in case Luka Doncic rests and Kessler's line shoots up even higher.

Play to: Over 23.5 (+108)