NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 8: ATS Predictions for Every Game

Despite road teams covering 10 of the 13 non-neutral site games in Week 7, my NFL ATS picks for Week 8 are highlighted by home teams in two of my three most confident plays. It starts with why I expect the Lions to hand the Vikings their first loss en route to covering the 3-point spread, and I also make the case for the Broncos to turn in a month better performance in their second meeting of the season against the Chiefs.

My most confident play on a road team takes the points with the Cardinals in what appears to be a curious line against the Cowboys.

NFL picks against the spread: Week 8 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 8 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Best ATS pick for Week 8

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in [Week XX].

Lions (-3.5) vs. Vikings ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My only five-star ATS play is sure to open some eyes as I fade a Vikings team amid the longest active winning streak in the league (11 games). But Minnesota has also played the third-easiest strength of schedule to this point, and Detroit has the perfect foil to the Vikings’ blitz-heavy scheme.

Minnesota blitzed Colts quarterback Daniel Jones on more than 85% of his dropbacks last week, the highest blitz rate of any defense in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). But Lions quarterback Jared Goff ranks No. 1 in EPA/Dropback versus the blitz. Goff clearly doesn’t get rattled under pressure, as he is the only one of 15 quarterbacks with double-digit touchdown passes who hasn’t thrown an interception.

I wouldn't put anyone off waiting to see if the public backs the undefeated Vikings enough to move the line to -3 or lower, but this is still a confident play at -3.5 regardless.

More Week 8 picks

Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arizona is very much a feast or famine team this year. It is responsible for two of the five biggest upsets of the season (Week 1 vs. the Chargers and Week 6 versus the Rams), but also is the only team in the league to lose four games by double-digits. The good news for the Cardinals is that this game is not at home, where they’ve lost 10 straight (the longest active streak in the NFL).

Dallas is coming off an impressive 38-21 victory over Philadelphia, but is at a disadvantage off a short week. The Cowboys are also overvalued after beating an Eagles team without Jalen Hurts or DeVonta Smith, and a hobbled Saquon Barkley.

Broncos (+1.5) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Despite suffering a 31-10 loss to Kansas City in Week 1, Denver is still 4-2 in the last six head-to-head matchups. The Chiefs are coming off a game with zero explosive plays and no touchdowns or red-zone drives. They now face a stingy Broncos defense that has rebounded since a poor performance in Week 1 to rank ninth in fewest rushing yards per game allowed.

One constant is always going to be the Broncos pass rush, which pressured Jacoby Brissett on more than half his dropbacks last week. It could be another long week for a Chiefs offense that mustered just three points (tied for the fewest in a Patrick Mahomes start) after allowing a season-high 19 pressures last week.