NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Burrow is the Overwhelming Favorite
Joe Burrow continues to be masterful for a team that treats defense like it's optional.
The Cincinnati Bengals did manage to wiggle free from the clutches of that defensive incompetence to defeat the Dallas Cowboys under the bright spotlight of Monday Night Football this past week. However, the win was partly a product of Dallas' own blunders.
Nonetheless, the faint NFL playoff odds hopes for the Bengals remain intact, though much squinting and prayer is required. But no matter what happens and how much his defense is napalmed regularly, it seems Burrow will keep on performing at an MVP-caliber level.
That more prestigious award might be his if Burrow's team was a legitimate contender, or at minimum he'd be solidly in the conversation while much higher in the NFL MVP odds.
Alas, the Bengals' defensive anchor has done its damage, so Burrow will need to settle for being the overwhelming favorite in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds at our best NFL prop betting sites.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Here are the other newsworthy CPOY notes:
- Burrow is sprinting away from the field, shifting from -135 odds before last week to about -250 now
- The Bengals' signal-caller is even as short as -303 through Caesars, leading to a whopping 75.19% implied probability
- No one else is really in sight, and especially not former front-runner Kirk Cousins, who has now thrown eight interceptions over his last four games, seeing his odds fall from +800 to +3400 as a result
- This market is so lopsided that two of our best NFL betting sites have even pulled it (DraftKings and Caesars).
NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorite
Joe Burrow (-250)
It's certainly not Burrow's fault that the Bengals are 5-8, as he ranks among the best quarterbacks in the NFL by nearly every metric.
That includes leading the league in passing yards (3,706) and passing touchdowns (33). He's thrown three-plus touchdown passes in five straight games, which includes five during Week 9 against the Las Vegas Raiders (incredibly his second five-touchdown game of the season).
The statistical fireworks don't end there, as Burrow has averaged 365.5 passing yards per matchup across his last four games. Yet his Bengals remain mediocre due to a defense giving up 27.7 points per outing.
The only odd part about Burrow's status as the Comeback Player of the Year favorite is the matter of what exactly he's coming back from. Sure, he endured a wrist injury in 2023, but Burrow still played 10 games and is relatively young and able to bounce back from that ailment just fine.
Meanwhile, Cousins and Aaron Rodgers are old men (well, sports old) and tore their Achilles. Nick Chubb is coming back from a truly gruesome leg injury, and we all know about what Damar Hamlin has overcome - though he should have won this award last year.
Burrow has been incredible, but he's an odd favorite for this specific award.
Nevertheless, his continued brilliance has made him a near lock to be crowned the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. A $10 bet at these -250 odds would lead to only a $4 profit.
Best odds: -250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 71.43%
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My NFL Comeback Player of the Year player to watch
Damar Hamlin (+2200)
This award was Hamlin's to lose last year, and the defensive back merely playing a single snap in a regular-season game should have been more than enough. Unfortunately, Joe Flacco came back from being old to win it, or something.
Is this season still considered part of Hamlin's comeback? Well, we believe so, and we've been backing him since the beginning.
Unfortunately, his odds have lengthened again recently, moving from +1600 to around +2200. The latter implies a minuscule 4.35% probability. Burrow is such a heavy favorite at our best sports betting sites that no one is remotely within reach. Hamlin widely sits in fifth by the odds, with Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray far back of Burrow too at +1300 while in second.
It'll be a mere matter of marching toward the finish for Burrow if he continues his current level of play, or even takes it down a notch or three. If Hamlin somehow finally gets the respect he deserves, a $10 bet would result in a $220 profit.
Best odds: +2200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 4.35%
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds over time
(Odds via bet365)
| Name | Opening odds (May 8) | July 18 | Aug. 14 | Oct. 11 | Dec. 3 | Dec. 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | +100 | +125 | +140 | +250 | +20000 | +25000 |
| Joe Burrow | +200 | +300 | +300 | +400 | -160 | -275 |
| Anthony Richardson | +750 | +600 | +650 | +5000 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Kirk Cousins | +500 | +500 | +500 | +280 | +700 | +1800 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 | +850 | +900 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 |
| Russell Wilson | +1200 | +3000 | +3000 | OFF | OFF | OFF |
| Damar Hamlin | OFF | OFF | OFF | +1200 | +1200 | +2000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1500 | +2500 | +3000 | +15000 | OFF | OFF |
| Tank Dell | +2500 | +4000 | +6500 | +5000 | +25000 | +20000 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 | +4000 | +5000 | +10000 | +1600 | +2500 |
NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria had long been unclear. Players have won it after returning from a major injury (Alex Smith), after beating an illness (Eric Berry), after a breakout season (Geno Smith), and after a career renaissance (Ryan Tannehill).
The award has been unpredictable, and Flacco winning it over Hamlin was the perfect example of that, leading to a change.
Under the new voting criteria, The Associated Press has emphasized that only players returning from injury or illness should be the focus of the award. Players who are bouncing back from a bad season or have improved from mediocre to great shouldn't win the award.
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting, told Pro Football Talk.
While the new criteria is used as a guideline for voters, they can still support players like Smith or Flacco.
For example, new Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson could still theoretically win the award, he just holds a less likely chance now that the criteria has been adjusted.
Past NFL Comeback Player of the Year winners
| Season | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Joe Flacco | OFF | Browns | QB |
| 2022 | Geno Smith | OFF | Seahawks | QB |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | +800 | Bengals | QB |
| 2020 | Alex Smith | +300 | Washington Football Team | QB |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | OFF | Titans | QB |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck | +450 | Colts | QB |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen | +900 | Chargers | WR |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson | +600 | Packers | WR |
| 2015 | Eric Berry | +500 | Chiefs | S |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski | +1000 | Patriots | TE |
How to bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Of the NFL futures markets, NFL Comeback Player of the Year may be the strangest to bet on, especially with how last year played out - giving it to the most out-of-nowhere performance (Flacco).
This award is almost a lock to go to whichever of the returning QBs is most impressive, which is why the best move is to target whichever passer you believe has the best shot at returning to Pro Bowl form and contending for the playoffs.
How to read NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Comeback Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Aaron Rodgers gets +500 odds and Joe Burrow gets +1000, Rodgers is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Rodgers and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow is the favorite at FanDuel with odds of -250. That translates to a 71.43% implied probability via our odds calculator.
Who was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season after signing with the team for the final five games.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year be announced?
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
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