NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2024-25: Rodgers, Darnold Co-Favorites After Vikings' QB Surges
Sam Darnold has been climbing the 2024-25 Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY) odds leaderboard since the start of the season, and he has finally gained parity with Aaron Rodgers, with both trading as +175 favorites at BetMGM.
Kirk Cousins also enjoyed a seismic ascent after bombarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for 509 passing yards and four touchdowns.
Much maligned pregame for his subpar 13-21 prime-time record, Cousins took matters into his own arm, tossing the ball a staggering 58 times on Thursday Night Football.
While his 14-21 prime-time record doesn't look much better after the win, the improbable and heroic way Cousins pulled off the comeback could prove to be the Falcons' turning point in the season.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Name | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Sam Darnold | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Kirk Cousins | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Joe Burrow | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Damar Hamlin | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Kyler Murray | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Justin Fields | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Andy Dalton | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
Here are the other newsworthy CPOY notes:
- Sam Darnold, who opened at +3000, now sits as the +175 co-favorite at BetMGM
- Cousins' odds shortened from +1100 to +400 after the Falcons' 36-30 Week 5 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Rodgers, who ascended the NFL MVP odds leaderboard after beating the New England Patriots 24-3, fell back to earth after a woeful outing at home against the Denver Broncos. At BetMGM, his CPOY odds lengthened from +100 to +175
- Damar Hamlin's Buffalo Bills have the best Super Bowl odds of the five favorites
NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorite
Aaron Rodgers (+175)
So far, it's been a case of one step forward, two steps back for Rodgers, who endured an afternoon to forget against the Broncos at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets quarterback is still in pole position at most of our best NFL betting sites, so nobody will be caught with their hand on the panic button.
Week 5 provides another exciting litmus test for Rogers, who faces fellow favorite Darnold in London. The Vikings are marginal favorites across our best sports betting apps despite swatting aside the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and Green Bay Packers.
Let's see if his rollercoaster season continues in "jolly old." His odds are way too short for my liking, particularly after seeing his Week 4 struggles.
Best odds: +200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33.33%
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My NFL Comeback Player of the Year player to watch
Damar Hamlin (+1000)
Hamlin is finally getting the recognition he so obviously deserves. There's still value in his current odds, but another few performances mirroring his outing against the Jags will erase any appeal.
Then again, catching Rodgers and Darnold will take some doing.
Hamlin's odds shifted from +10000 to +3500 overnight after DraftKings first listed him. His odds are now down to +1000 through DraftKings.
And he's finally being listed prominently on all of our best sports betting apps. After his worst performance of the season in Baltimore, Hamlin's odds only lengthened marginally, from +900 to +1000, at BetMGM.
I expect him to be much better against the Texans in Week 5. He'll have to be for the Bills to have any chance of leaving Houston with a 4-1 record.
If, like me, you believe in Hamlin's ability to build on his momentum, lock him in as your Comeback Player of the Year before the remaining value drips away.
Best odds: +1000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 9.09%
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds over time
(Odds via DraftKings)
| Name | Opening odds (May 8) | July 18 | Aug. 14 | Oct. 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | +100 | +125 | +140 | +190 |
| Joe Burrow | +200 | +300 | +300 | +850 |
| Anthony Richardson | +750 | +600 | +650 | +3000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +500 | +500 | +500 | +300 |
| Nick Chubb | +2000 | +850 | +900 | +2200 |
| Russell Wilson | +1200 | +3000 | +3000 | +15000 |
| Daniel Jones | +2500 | +1600 | +1600 | +3000 |
| Damar Hamlin | OFF | OFF | OFF | +1000 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1500 | +2500 | +3000 | +15000 |
| Tank Dell | +2500 | +4000 | +6500 | +6500 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 | +4000 | +5000 | +6000 |
NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year voting criteria had long been unclear. Players have won it after returning from a major injury (Alex Smith), after beating an illness (Eric Berry), after a breakout season (Geno Smith), and after a career renaissance (Ryan Tannehill).
The award has been unpredictable, and Flacco winning it over Hamlin was the perfect example of that, leading to a change.
Under the new voting criteria, The Associated Press has emphasized that only players returning from injury or illness should be the focus of the award. Players who are bouncing back from a bad season or have improved from mediocre to great shouldn't win the award.
“The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season,” AP senior NFL writer Rob Maaddi, who oversees All-Pro and NFL awards voting, told Pro Football Talk.
While the new criteria is used as a guideline for voters, they can still support players like Smith or Flacco.
For example, new Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson could still theoretically win the award, he just holds a less likely chance now that the criteria has been adjusted.
Past NFL Comeback Player of the Year winners
| Season | Player | Preseason odds | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Joe Flacco | OFF | Browns | QB |
| 2022 | Geno Smith | OFF | Seahawks | QB |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | +800 | Bengals | QB |
| 2020 | Alex Smith | +300 | Washington Football Team | QB |
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill | OFF | Titans | QB |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck | +450 | Colts | QB |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen | +900 | Chargers | WR |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson | +600 | Packers | WR |
| 2015 | Eric Berry | +500 | Chiefs | S |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski | +1000 | Patriots | TE |
How to bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year
Of the NFL futures markets, NFL Comeback Player of the Year may be the strangest to bet on, especially with how last year played out - giving it to the most out-of-nowhere performance (Flacco).
This award is almost a lock to go to whichever of the returning QBs is most impressive, which is why the best move is to target whichever passer you believe has the best shot at returning to Pro Bowl form and contending for the playoffs.
How to read NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Reading NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a player winning the Comeback Player of the Year. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, and betting patterns.
If Aaron Rodgers gets +500 odds and Joe Burrow gets +1000, Rodgers is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Rodgers and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year?
New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers and Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold are the co-favorites to win the 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year at BetMGM.
Their +175 odds imply a 36.36% win probability.
Who was the NFL Comeback Player of the Year last year?
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year for the 2023-24 season after signing with the team for the final five games.
When will the 2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year be announced?
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year will be announced at the NFL Honors show during Super Bowl week in early February 2025.
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