NFL MVP Odds 2024-25: Mahomes Consensus Favorite to Win for 3rd Time
It might be time to rename this award. Perhaps instead of the MVP Award, we should consider the MVQB Award. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson captured last year's NFL MVP Award, becoming the 12th straight signal-caller to snag the honor.
Looking at the best 2024-25 NFL MVP odds across our best NFL betting sites just weeks away from training camps, it would seem oddsmakers expect another QB to snag the title.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite to win the third NFL MVP Award of his career, moving him into a tie for the third-most in league history.
Following closely behind Mahomes are Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Allen lost his top receiving target, Stefon Diggs, via a trade to the Texans.
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow and reigning MVP Jackson round out the top five.
NFL MVP 2024-25 odds
(NFL MVP odds from our best sports betting sites as of July 17 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +450 | +500 | +500 | +450 | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +850 | +800 | +900 🔥 | +850 | +800 |
| C.J. Stroud | +850 | +1000 | +1000 | +800 ❄️ | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 | +1000 🔥 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1000 ❄️ |
| Jordan Love | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1200 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Brock Purdy | +1400 ❄️ | +1600 | +1600 | +1800 🔥 | +1600 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1600 | +1400 ❄️ | +1600 | +1500 | +1600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 ❄️ | +2500 🔥 | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 |
| Dak Prescott | +1700 | +2000 🔥 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
2024-25 NFL MVP favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+500)
It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Mahomes headlining this market, even after a relatively down season in 2023.
The two-time MVP still ranked sixth in passing yards (4,183) and eighth in touchdown passes (27) with the worst receiving corps he's ever played among. He responded with a superhuman effort to lead his team to a 2024 Super Bowl win.
The team took steps in the offseason to bolster the receiving room, signing speedster Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round. They should both serve as upgrades.
The postseason technically doesn't matter in this market, nor do any of the results from last season. Yet I think his playoff run will stick in the minds of NFL fans and voters heading into next season. If Mahomes returns to his usual statistical form, he should be in line to win this award.
Best odds: +500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 16.67%
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Josh Allen (+900)
Allen's price lengthened following the Diggs trade, and he's as long as +900 via BetMGM. The Bills filled that gap at receiver with their selection of Keon Coleman at 33rd overall in the draft.
Allen was the only player besides Jackson to earn a first-place vote in 2023 when he helped rally the Bills to a five-game win streak to steal the AFC East crown. He also finished third in QBR (69.6) and posted the second-highest completion rate over expected (5%) and third-best EPA per dropback (0.18) of any full-time starter.
If Allen can carry this team to another division title in the tough AFC East, that could work in his favor to win his first MVP Award.
Best odds: +900 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 10.00%
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C.J. Stroud (+1000)
What do you get when you take the Offensive Rookie of the Year coming off a record-setting campaign and add one of the league's premier receivers in Diggs?
You get the third-shortest odds to win the NFL MVP placed on a sophomore.
Of course, it will take another step forward for Stroud to compete with the big names in this market. Throwing only five interceptions as a rookie was a gaudy feat, but it will be a hard one to repeat; his 23 touchdowns will almost certainly need to increase if he's going to be crowned MVP.
We talk about Mahomes having a down year statistically and having a terrible wide receiving corps, and he still finished with more yards and touchdowns than Stroud.
If Diggs can help him take another step forward in his career with a bona fide no. 1 wideout, he might be able to take the step. If Diggs is the version of himself we saw over the second half last season, Stroud might need to settle for another "very good" but not "MVP caliber" season.
Best odds: +1000 via bet365 | Implied probability: 9.09%
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My 2024-25 NFL MVP player to watch
Aaron Rodgers (+2500)
I'm not entirely sure what we should expect from Rodgers this season, and I suppose the reality is that none of us are. But FanDuel has a major outlier price on the four-time NFL MVP (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021); this number could disappear before the season starts, and it certainly won't last long if the New York Jets get off to a hot start.
Rodgers had a down year the last time we saw him in 2022, but his Green Bay Packers were in transition, and it seemed his time in town was done. If he can return to his former glory, surrounded by the youthful talent of the Jets, this number will shorten fast, and we'll be discussing whether he can tie the legendary Peyton Manning with five NFL MVP awards.
Best odds: +2500 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 3.85%
NFL MVP odds over time
(Most recent odds via bet365 on July 17)
| Player | Opening odds (Feb. 12) | July 17 |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +600 | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +800 | +800 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 | +900 |
| C.J. Stroud | +1100 | +1000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1200 | +1000 |
| Dak Prescott | +1400 | +1600 |
| Justin Herbert | +1400 | +1600 |
| Brock Purdy | +1600 | +1600 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1600 | +1600 |
| Jordan Love | +1600 | +1400 |
Past NFL MVP winners
| Year | Player | Team | Position | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB | +1400 |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB | +800 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +1100 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +3000 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | Ravens | QB | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | QB | +3525 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | Patriots | QB | +385 |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Falcons | QB | +7500 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Panthers | QB | +5200 |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | Packers | QB | +600 |
NFL MVP winners by position
| Position | NFL MVP awards |
|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 |
| Running back | 13 |
| Fullback | 4 |
| Halfback | 1 |
| Kicker | 1 |
| Defensive tackle | 1 |
| Linebacker | 1 |
NFL MVP winners by team
| Team | NFL MVP awards |
|---|---|
| Packers | 10 |
| Colts | 9 |
| 49ers | 5 |
| Browns | 4 |
| Rams | 4 |
| Raiders | 3 |
| Patriots | 3 |
| Commanders | 3 |
| Broncos | 3 |
| Vikings | 3 |
How to bet NFL MVP futures odds
Betting on the NFL MVP typically involves wagering on which player will be awarded the league's MVP title at the end of the regular season. Here are steps to bet on the NFL MVP:
- Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with the odds listed by sportsbooks for different players to win the MVP. The player with the lowest odds is considered the favorite.
- Research player performances: Analyze the performances of various players throughout the season. Factors such as statistics, impact on their team's success, and overall contributions are crucial. Consider quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, or even defensive players who might be having outstanding seasons.
- Monitor odds and player performance: Throughout the season, keep an eye on odds fluctuations and player performances. As the season progresses, odds will change based on players' performances and their impact on games.
- Stay updated: Stay informed about injuries, team performance, and how players are faring in their respective positions. These factors can significantly impact a player's chances of winning the MVP.
- Cash-out or hold: Depending on how the season progresses and the player's performance, you can decide to cash out if the odds are in your favor or hold onto your bet until the end of the season to see if your chosen player wins the MVP.
Remember, betting on the NFL MVP requires careful consideration of various factors and a good understanding of the game and players' performances throughout the season.
How to read NFL MVP odds
Reading NFL MVP odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.
For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.
These odds also reflect the probability of a team winning the championship. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on performance, injuries, trades, and betting patterns.
If Patrick Mahomes gets +500 odds and Josh Allen gets +1000, Mahomes is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Mahomes and he wins, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake). Understanding these odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.
NFL MVP FAQs
Who is the favorite for NFL MVP?
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the early betting favorite to win the 2024-25 NFL MVP. His odds are as short as +450. Those odds carry an implied win probability of 18.18%.
When will the 2024-25 NFL MVP be announced?
The 2024-25 NFL MVP will be announced at the NFL Honors show in the days ahead of the 2025 Super Bowl.
Who was the NFL MVP last year?
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won the 2023-24 NFL MVP award, claiming the award for the second time in his career.
Who has the most NFL MVP awards in history?
Former quarterback Peyton Manning has won five NFL MVP awards. He captured four with the Indianapolis Colts (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009) and one with the Denver Broncos (2013).
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