NFL Touchdown Over/Unders: 6 Players to Target Now

We're in prime football futures season with the new campaign just over a month away, and I'm now turning my attention to the end zone with my favorite NFL touchdown Over/Unders to bet now.

I'm targeting three touchdown Overs and three Unders for the 2026 season, with a quarterback, running back, and receiver featured in each category. Let's talk touchdowns.

📈 NFL touchdown Overs to target

NFL touchdown Over odds via our best sports betting sites. 

Dak Prescott Over 27.5 passing touchdowns (+100)

Everything points to this season being a huge one for Prescott. In fact, I'm so confident in Prescott having a monster 2026 that he's one of my featured NFL award predictions and sleepers. He has an elite stable of offensive weapons to throw to - headlined by CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson - as well as a well-established partnership with head coach and offensive play-caller Brian Schottenheimer.

The Cowboys star passer has gone Over this total in three of his last five seasons, only falling short in the two campaigns in which he missed games due to injury. Apart from a few injury-riddled seasons, Prescott has proven he's a durable player and one of the league's highest-volume passers when available. As long as he suits up for at least 15 games, I can't envision a scenario in which Prescott doesn't throw for Over 27.5 touchdowns.

James Cook Over 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-105)

I'm not scared off by the presence of quarterback Josh Allen and his elite rushing ability. Rather, that tandem of Allen and Cook has been at the center of the Bills' offensive attack since new head coach Joe Brady became Buffalo's play-caller three years ago. The three-time Pro Bowler led the league in rushing last season on a career-high 309 carries.

That gives Cook an incredibly high floor for offensive production, including rushing touchdowns. Even with Allen calling his own number often in the red zone, Cook will have more than enough opportunities to hit pay dirt, as he has in the last two seasons (28 combined rushing TDs) entering 2026.

Chris Olave Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns (-114)

Olave developed a very productive connection with Tyler Shough last season when the rookie took over as the Saints' starting quarterback in Week 9. The wideout scored six touchdowns in eight games with Shough throwing him the football, giving him a career-high nine scores in 2025. Look for that to continue next season with Shough beginning the year as New Orleans' QB1.

Injuries have been a concern for Olave in the past, but this isn't a massive total for Olave to clear, even if he misses a handful of games.

📉 NFL touchdown Unders to target

NFL touchdown Under odds via our best NFL betting sites.

C.J. Stroud Under 22.5 passing touchdowns (-105)

Stroud is under intense scrutiny after his horrific playoff performance last season sank a Texans team that was otherwise shaping up for a Super Bowl run. Beyond that career-worst meltdown, however, Stroud just isn't a high-volume passer and never has been. He hasn't surpassed 22.5 passing touchdowns since his rookie season, as his attempts, completions, and yardage have declined year-over-year across his three NFL seasons. 

Houston is built to play safe, defense-first football - and after adding bell-cow running back David Montgomery in the offseason, I don't expect that to change. The Texans want Stroud to be a high-level game-manager, and that means he's unlikely to throw for more than 22 touchdowns in 2026.

Kyren Williams Under 9.5 rushing touchdowns (+100)

Not only is Williams the running back of one of the NFL's highest-volume passing attacks, but he also has to contend with a Rams backfield that can increasingly be considered a true committee.

He lost roughly five carries per game to Blake Corum in 2025, and I anticipate that trend increasing this season. While unlikely to be a true 50-50 split between Williams and Corum, Williams no longer being the sole rushing focus will make it difficult for him to hit a double-digit touchdown total.

Chris Godwin Under 4.5 receiving touchdowns (+100)

Godwin was a shell of his former self last season coming off a major ankle injury, scoring just two touchdowns across nine games.

You might be tempted to think that a full year removed from his recovery will result in a stronger output from Godwin, and while that might be true, he's been far from a prolific touchdown scorer even when at 100%. Godwin has averaged 3.4 receiving touchdowns across his previous five seasons, a significant sample size that makes Godwin an easy fade for 2026.