NFL Award Predictions & Sleepers: Where to Find Value in MVP, OPOY & DPOY Markets

More than enough will be said and written about the betting favorites, but who are my best NFL award predictions and sleepers as football's offseason winds down?

With training camps just about set to get underway across the league, now is as good a time as any to dive into the award betting markets and identify valuable sleepers. The start of the season will inevitably spark line movement, so I'm getting some bets in now on my favorite sleepers to win MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year.

🔮 NFL award sleepers to bet now

Who qualifies as a sleeper depends on the specific betting market, but my three choices have odds at least as long as +1300, with my longest shot juiced all the way up to +4000.

Dak Prescott to win NFL MVP (+1300)

NFL MVP is really a one-position award, so I'm picking between the league's best quarterbacks for my top MVP sleeper pick. Here, I landed on Dak Prescott, who is often the butt of Cowboys-centered jokes but has been one of the most durable and consistent passers throughout his career. He's also in a sweet spot, sitting seventh on the oddsboard at +1300, and has a lot working in his favor heading into 2026.

Prescott led 2025's No. 1-ranked passing offense by making the most of an elite stable of weapons: CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and tight end Jake Ferguson form perhaps the best pass-catching trio in the league. The proof of concept is there, and it isn't hard to see that unit growing in Year 2 under head coach Brian Schottenheimer. The Cowboys' porous defense was the team's Achilles' heel last year, but a series of additions that includes Caleb Downs and Rashan Gary should result in Prescott playing in less desperate, play-from-behind second halves this time around.

One of the NFL's top volume passers - he's led the league in completions in two of the last three seasons - Prescott finished second to Lamar Jackson in MVP voting in 2023. He's well-positioned to be among the finalists for football's top individual honor again this season and an excellent sleeper to target ahead of training camp. 

A.J. Brown to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year (+4000)

Now here's a true sleeper swing, but one with legitimate value at a whopping +4000 odds (2.44% implied probability).

A.J. Brown is what the New England offense was missing during its Super Bowl run last season: a true X-receiver. The Patriots wouldn't have traded a first-round pick for Brown if they didn't intend to utilize his explosiveness to its fullest extent. He will be the unquestioned No. 1 target for ascendant quarterback Drake Maye, whose downfield passing efficiency was elite last season despite a less-than-stellar receiving corps. It's a perfect match of QB and WR, as Brown thrives on splash plays and long touchdowns.

Brown will also be on his best behavior with his new team while looking to prove to his previous squad, the Eagles, that he should have been a bigger part of their game plans. As a low-floor, high-ceiling sleeper, a career-best season with the best QB he's ever played with would put the three-time All-Pro in contention for OPOY.

Danielle Hunter to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+2500)

When it comes to NFL Defensive Player of the Year, voters are evaluating based off of raw sack numbers alone more often than not. Three of the last five DPOY award winners led the league in sacks, which means an edge player has to be our target in this market.

There isn't much value in betting on the favorite and reigning DPOY Myles Garrett (+450). Instead, I'm targeting another veteran who has over 100 career QB takedowns and seven seasons where he finished with double-digit sacks. Danielle Hunter has ranked top five in the NFL in sacks in five different seasons, demonstrating that he's been on the cusp of taking home the single-year sack crown several times. As a dominant force on an elite Texans defense, I don't see any reason why 2026 can't be the year he finally leads the NFL in sacks and wins his first career Defensive Player of the Year award.

Despite ranking well below teammate Will Anderson Jr. on the oddsboard - Anderson ranks second at +800 - Hunter actually tallied more sacks than Anderson in both of their previous two seasons playing together. That's why there is significant value in placing a bet now on Hunter rather than Anderson at much worse odds. Coming off a 15-sack campaign, Hunter elevating that number to 18 or 19 is both in play and would give him a great chance at winning DPOY.