The Streak Calculator tool is used to predict the probability of a losing streak across a series of bets. Use it to manage your bankroll effectively over a period of time.
Series Length: The size of the streak of lost wagers
Streak Length: The size of the streak in number of wagers
Loss Probability: The probability of losing any given wager
Streak Probability: The probability of a streak of losses of length specified in the “Streak Length” text box occuring over a series of wagers as specified in the “Series Length” text box.
Q: If you place 500 wagers per betting season, each losing with probability 46%, what is the likelihood of losing 10 or more wagers in a row at some point during the season?
A: Enter 500 in the “Series Length” text box, “10” in the “Streak Length” text box, and 47% in the “Loss Probability” text box. Clicking “Calculate” we see that over a stretch of 500 wagers, a bettor who wins with probability 54% has a 10.677% probability of losing 10 or bets in a row.
This calculator helps you work out the chances of losing a streak of wagers over a specified length of time. It is designed to help bettors practice sensible bankroll management and budget accordingly for periods in which luck is not on your side. Read on to learn how to use the streak calculator, the formula that underpins it and how to gamble responsibly.
How to Use the Streak Calculator
You can use this streak calculator to determine the likelihood of embarking on a lengthy losing streak over a certain period of time. Follow these steps to calculate your losing streak probability:
1. Enter the “Series Length”. This is the number of bets you intend to place over a particular length of time, such as an NFL season, a month, a year or five years.
2. Enter the “Streak Length”. This relates the length of the losing streak you want to determine the probability of. If you want to work out the probability of losing 12 bets in a row, enter “12”.
3. Type in the “Loss Probability”. This is the average probability that you have for any given wager. You can work this out based on the odds offered on each bet you wish to place.
4. Click “Calculate”.
The streak calculator will then tell you the probability of you going on a losing streak over that specified series length of time. You can plan your bankroll at the best sports betting sites accordingly by arming yourself with this information.
Streak Calculator Example
Let’s say you plan to place 500 wagers over the course of an NBA season and that the average probability of winning each bet is 54%. That makes your loss probability 46% for the purposes of this example. You want to know the chances of losing 10 games in a row during the season. You would then enter:
1. Series Length: 500
2. Streak Length: 10
3. Loss Probability: 46%
The streak calculator will then tell you that there is a 10.677% probability that you will embark upon a 10-bet losing streak during that particular wager series. You can easily go back and edit the streak calculator. You might decide that the win probability is actually 55%, so you can quickly change the loss probability to 45%. You might then want to calculate the chance of going on a losing streak of 12 games or a losing streak length of 15 games. You can then quickly edit the streak length on our streak probability calculator to produce quick results that promote effective bankroll management over a series length of time.
The Formula for Streaks in a Wager Series
This streak probability calculator does all the hard work for you, and you can rest assured that the results will be accurate based on the streak length and series length you input. However, some bettors like to know more about the formulae underpinning probability calculators and other tools, and they enjoy having the ability to work out the streak loss probability themselves.
You can use the formula ln(n)/ln(P) in order to work out the longest streak of losses you can expect to suffer within a particular series of bets. Within this formula, n is equivalent to the number of bets in the series, P is the probability, l is the absolute value and ln is the natural logarithm, which can easily be worked out by using a row on an Excel sheet. To work out the potential timing of a streak, you can use the formula (1/P)a, whereby P is the loss probability and a is the streak length. You can then use this information to calculate the probability of suffering one streak of losses – or wins – within a series of bets.
Who Should Use This Streak Probability Tool
This tool is really useful for anyone that plans to place a significant volume of bets over a particular period of time, be it one week, one month or one year. It does not matter whether you place casual bets or large bets, as the streak calculator will prove invaluable when planning how to effectively use your bankroll. It is really helpful for newcomers to the world of placing sports bets, but it is equally useful for seasoned handicappers that have been placing bets for a number of years. You can calculate probability and streak length manually, but it is time consuming and there is a danger of errors creeping in. Streak calculators do all the hard work for you, and you will not make any mistakes if you enter the correct series length and probability odds.The streak calculator is also popular among dice players at online casinos like Bitcoin site Bitsler. They use it as a Bitsler probability calculator, and they arm themselves with a PDF file featuring a Bitsler probability table to help make their streak decisions over a series length of dice throws. This calculator can also be used in various other walks of life, but it is ideal for anyone keen to find the streak probability over a particular length of time featuring a set number of bets in a series.
How to Manage Your Bankroll
First you should set aside a bankroll to last you for a particular length of time. It should be a sum of money that you can afford to lose, and not money that you need for rent, bills, groceries and so on. Some bettors like to start by wagering 1% or 2% of their bankroll on each selection, and then increase it steadily when they are on a winning streak, or decrease it gradually if they lose.
You might consider starting with a bankroll equivalent to five times the maximum losing streak, just in case you suffer several bad results in a row when you first start betting. If you wish to wager $50 per bet, and the expected losing streak within the allotted length of time is 10, you might like to start with a bankroll of $2,500. That would allow you to bet 2% of your bankroll each time, and you could increase it gradually if you secure a number of wins in a row.
Best Sportsbooks for Long-Term Bettors
It is imperative that you identify a safe, secure, reliable sportsbook that will treat you fairly, provide great odds and pay you out on time. You should stick to the best sportsbooks that have earned A ratings at SBR, such as FanDuel, DraftKings, theScore Bet, Caesars, and Circa Sports. They all have proven to be quality operators that pride themselves on offering value to players long-term.
Many sportsbooks will offer their best sportsbook promos and bonuses in a bid to stand out from the competition. A welcome bonus is unlikely to be your primary concern if you intend to place a large volume of bets, but an attractive reload bonus would improve the probability of you securing a profit over a particular period of time.
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