🏇 Kentucky Derby Odds & Positions 2026: Favorites to Win at Churchill Downs
This is one of the few weekends where thoroughbred horse racing grabs the attention of American sports fans - casual and passionate alike. It’s the 152nd Kentucky Derby, the latest iteration of the longest-running sporting event in North America, and we have the Kentucky Derby odds and post position to help your wagering.
Derby Saturday is traditionally the first Saturday of May - May 2 this year - from Churchill Downs in Louisville. The annual event that showcases the best three-year-olds in the world and a 150,000-person party is considered the “fastest two minutes in sports” (NBC/Peacock), scheduled to begin at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.
I have you covered from picking the smartest hats to picking apart the 20-horse field in what is a wide-open Derby, starting with morning-line favorite Renegade (4-1).
🏇 Kentucky Derby odds & post positions 2026
Here's a look at this year's odds - our Kentucky Derby picks and predictions break down our top bets for the weekend.
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 4-1 |
| 2 | Albus | Riley Mott | 30-1 |
| 3 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 50-1 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 50-1 |
| 5 | Right to Party | Ken McPeek | 30-1 |
| 6 | Commandment | Brad Cox | 6-1 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | Manabu Ikezoe | 20-1 |
| 8 | So Happy | Mark Glatt | 15-1 |
| 9 | The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | 10-1 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | Daisuke Takayanagi | 30-1 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 20-1 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | Bill Mott | 8-1 |
| 13 | Potente | Bob Baffert | 20-1 |
| 14 | Emerging Market | Chad Brown | 15-1 |
| 15 | Pavlovian | Doug O’Neill | 30-1 |
| 16 | Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | 50-1 |
| 17 | Further Ado | Brad Cox | 6-1 |
| 18 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | 30-1 |
| 19 | Fulleffort | Brad Cox | 20-1 |
| 20 | Great White | John Ennis | 50-1 |
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💰 Kentucky Derby betting favorite
Here's a look at what the betting favorites for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs were. Odds are from the best horse racing betting sites.
🏇 Renegade (4-1)
From pedigree (star sire Into Mischief out of Curlin dam and Grade 1 winner Spice is Nice) to speed (a field-best 11.8-second final furlong in his Arkansas Derby win) to perfect in-the-money record (5:2-2-1), there’s plenty to like about the Arkansas Derby and Sam F. Davis Stakes winner. Those two scores by a combined 7 ¾ lengths illustrate Renegade’s form coming into Churchill Downs. At the same time, they show why this closer is the deserving favorite. His 98 Beyer Speed Figure from that Arkansas Derby win and 11.8/36.6-second final three furlongs display key traits for front-row Derby contenders. Last year, Sovereignty was the 31st winner in the last 36 Derbies to have a sub-38-second final three furlongs in his last prep.
Now comes the “but…” Renegade drew the dreaded rail, meaning that standout jockey Irad Oritz Jr. will have to pilot the perfect trip to get Renegade in the clear for his dynamic closing kick coming out of the far turn. Becoming the first horse to win a Derby from the rail in four decades depends on that scenario.
🎯 Kentucky Derby long shot to watch
🏇 Golden Tempo (30-1)
Let’s get this out of the way first. By no means are we picking Golden Tempo to outright win Kentucky Derby 152. While he does check both boxes of a sub-13-second final furlong (12.4) and sub-38-second final three furlongs (37.4) in his last Derby prep, Golden Tempo lacks the pure tactical speed needed to win in this field.
His best Beyer Speed Figure is the 88 he posted finishing a strong third in the Louisiana Derby. That’s below the 95 threshold generally considered the baseline for a front-row Derby contender.
That said, he's a must-use on all of your tickets, especially at this price. Golden Tempo’s stone-closer running style is ideal for sneaking into the trifecta and superfecta, because he perfectly fits the profile of a down-ticket Derby board-hitter. He's shown in every race his ability to pick off runners in the stretch and find the board, which he hasn’t missed in four starts (2-0-2). And if heaven and Earth collide and he gets a trip like Rich Strike in 2022, taking a flier like this will literally make you soar to the betting window.
❌ Kentucky Derby pick to avoid
🏇 Further Ado (6-1)
Every year, there's one horse who brings everything to the starting gate: speed, pedigree, stamina, a healthy record of in-the-money finishes and a standout trainer at the top of his game. And every year, one horse checking those boxes lays a pterodactyl-sized egg in the Derby, failing to run to his odds. See “Bellamy Road (seventh in 2005),” “Rock Your World (16th in 2021),” or “Fierceness (15th in 2024).”
This year, we’re betting that’s Further Ado. Yes, the horse with the field-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure can win this race. Yes, the horse that racked up that 106 Beyer with an 11-length destruction of the Blue Grass Stakes is a live contender. Yes, the product of standout sire Gun Runner, who has A-list trainer Brad Cox at the controls, will take plenty of money. And yes, a horse with three wins and a 5-for-6 record of in-the-money finishes is attention-grabbing.
But you have to take a stand somewhere, and we’re taking one with a horse we think will bounce-regress from his last stellar outing - in the Derby. Beating up a C-minus field in a prep (the Blue Grass) that hasn’t sent an alum to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle since 2007 (Street Sense) and that has only one runner in this year’s Derby is not the flex you think it is.
It doesn't help that Further Ado is now starting from gate 17, which is the only one of the Kentucky Derby post positions to never produce a winner. There are simply better options on Saturday with a more generous price.
💦 How track conditions affect Kentucky Derby odds
The National Weather Service forecast for Saturday is mostly sunny with a high of 61 and a low of 39.
That bodes well for all styles of runners, according to longtime handicapper Ed DeRosa, the vice president of content for Horse Racing Nation and the former Director of Marketing for Churchill Downs’ Brisnet. DeRosa told The Weather Channel that front-running, pace-pressing horses win 29.8% of races on fast tracks, while closers close the deal 20.4%. But when track conditions are anything but “fast,” front-runners win nearly 32% of the time, while closers win only 17.6%.
🗒️Kentucky Derby betting strategies
Looking for Kentucky Derby betting trends? Our LJ Blut has you covered for the weekend.
Why long shots matter
- Favorites often win, but big payouts come from long shots hitting exotics.
- 2014
- California Chrome (5-2) wins → small payout ($7)
- Commanding Curve (37-1) in exacta → $340
- Danza (8-1) in trifecta → $3,424.60
- 2017
- Always Dreaming (9-2) wins
- 33-1 + 40-1 horses hit board
- $2 trifecta → $16,594.40
- 2020
- Authentic (8-1) wins
- Exacta → $41.40
- 46-1 longshot in trifecta → $1,311.80
Key trends
- Longshot closers are crucial for big tickets
- 10-1+ odds horse has hit superfecta 12 straight years
- In 10 of last 12 years, closers filled 2 of top 4 spots
- Since 2012: 11 horses at 26-1+ finished top 4
How to identify sleepers
Form cycle
- Look for horses improving through prep races
- Examples: 11 horses at 26-1+ finished top 4
- The Puma (10-1): competitive in all preps
- Danon Bourbon (20-1): undefeated, dominant wins
Pedigree / Stamina
- Sire should have won Grade 1 at 1 1/16 miles+
- Look for distance pedigree (sire/damsire)
- Examples: Danon Bourbon (Maxfield–Tapit line)
- Golden Tempo (Curlin–Bernardini line)
Experience
- Ideal: 5–6 career races
- Helps handle 20-horse field chaos
- Examples: Incredibolt - 5 starts
- Fulleffort - 7 starts
Post position trends
- Middle gates = best balance
- Inside = traffic issues
- Outside = longer, tougher trips
Best gates (All-time)
- Gates 5-10 = 42 winners
- Gate 5: 10 wins (10.4%)
- Gate 10: 9 wins (10.1%)
Recent trend
- Since 2010: 9 of last 15 winners from Gates 13–16
Worst post positions
- Rail (Gate 1): No winner since 1986
- Gate 2: No winner since 1978
- Still strong board hit rate (27.1%)
Notable outlier
- Gate 17
- 0-for-46 all-time
- No top-4 finish since 2005
- No in-the-money finish since 1988
💸 How to bet on the Kentucky Derby
To place a wager on the Kentucky Derby, you must first understand the three standard "straight" bets: a Win bet requires your horse to finish first, a Place bet covers a first or second-place finish, and a Show bet pays out if your horse finishes anywhere in the top three.
When betting in person at a racetrack window, you should clearly state the dollar amount, the horse's program number, the specific wager type, and the race number - for example, "Twenty dollars on No. 6 to win in the 12th race at Churchill Downs" or "A $2 exacta box with No. 1, 6, and 15." For those not at the track, FanDuel Racing is available in many states, offering a convenient way to place everything from these basic bets to complex vertical and multi-race exotic wagers.
📜 Kentucky Derby betting odds history
Below is a look at Kentucky Derby betting history. Sovereignty won last year's race with +1000 Kentucky Derby odds.
- 2025 Sovereignty: +1000
- 2024 Mystik Dan: +1800
- 2023 Mage: +1700
- 2022 Rich Strike: +8000
- 2021 Medina Spirit: +1200
- 2020 Authentic: +800
- 2019 Country House: +6500
- 2018 Justify: +250
- 2017 Always Dreaming: +450
- 2016 Nyquist: +200
- 2015 American Pharoah: +250
- 2014 California Chrome: +250
🏆Kentucky Derby winner post position history
Here is a look at the post position history for recent Kentucky Derby winners.
- 2025 Sovereignty post position: 16
- 2024 Mystik Dan post position: 3
- 2023 Mage post position: 8
- 2022 Rich Strike post position: 20
- 2021 Medina Spirit post position: 8
- 2020 Authentic post position: 18
- 2019 Country House post position: 20
- 2018 Justify post position: 7
- 2017 Always Dreaming post position: 5
- 2016 Nyquist post position: 13
- 2015 American Pharoah post position: 18
- 2014 California Chrome post position: 5
🔢 How do Kentucky Derby odds work?
This is a common question from novice horse racing bettors every spring.
Simply put, American odds represent how much money you would win on a $100 wager. Or in some cases, how much money you would need to wager to return $100.
Let's refer to an example. Renegade closed with +400 odds to win this year's Kentucky Derby. That means a winning $100 bet at those odds would return $400 in profit, or a $10 bet would return $40, or even $1 for a $10 return.
According to our odds converter, Renegade was getting a 20% implied probability of winning the prestigious race.
You'll want to be careful staking too much on long-shot bets, as the low implied win probabilities indicate the unlikelihood of a victory.
⏰ What time does the Kentucky Derby start and end?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to start at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 2.
The race is nicknamed “The Most Exciting 2 Minutes in Sports,” and that moniker always comes to fruition. Derby winners typically cross the finish line around the 2 minute and 2 second mark. So, expect the Kentucky Derby to end at approximately 6:59 p.m. ET.
❓ Kentucky Derby FAQs
Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?
The 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite is Renegade (4-1).
How long is the Kentucky Derby track?
The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
The 2026 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 2.
Where is the 2026 Kentucky Derby held?
The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
How many horses can run in the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby field is limited to a maximum of 20 starters. Because the field is so large, Churchill Downs uses a specially designed, contiguous 20-stall starting gate. This is a crucial factor for odds analysis, as horses drawing the far inside (Post 1) or far outside (Post 20) often see their odds drift higher due to the perceived difficulty of navigating the crowded 1 1/4-mile trip.
What is the difference between Morning Line odds and live odds?
The Morning Line odds are the initial prices set by the Churchill Downs track handicapper (usually released the Monday before the race). These are simply a prediction of how the public will bet. Live odds are determined by the actual money wagered in the parimutuel pool. Because the Kentucky Derby is a "pool-based" betting event, your final payout is determined by the odds at the moment the gates open, not the odds when you placed your bet.
What is the "Favorite Curse" in the Kentucky Derby?
While favorites historically won at a high rate in the early 2010s, we are currently in a "favorite slump." The betting favorite has failed to win the Kentucky Derby in seven consecutive years (2019–2025). However, favorite Maximum Security crossed the finish line first in the 2019 Derby, only to be disqualified for interference. This trend has made "alternative" betting strategies - like backing middle-market horses or long shots - increasingly popular for those looking to maximize their ROI.
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