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Steven Spielberg looks to become only the fourth person in the history of the Academy Awards to win Best Director three times.
Steven Spielberg looks to become only the fourth person in the history of the Academy Awards to win Best Director three times. Photo by Timothy A. Clary via AFP.

The 2023 Academy Awards nominations were released Tuesday, Jan. 24, with the ceremony fast approaching on March 12. Many precursor award shows have shaped not only how the books are setting their odds, but also how we're examining potential winners. Read on for our look at the best odds for the 2023 Oscars.

The 2023 Oscars nominations are in, and Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert's multiverse-based adventure, "Everything Everywhere All At Once," appears to be the dominant front-runner after taking home Best Picture honors at the Critics Choice Awards.

With the Screen Actors Guild Awards still to come, we're examining our best 2023 Oscars picks, with a focus on Best Picture and Best Director. 

Check out our odds and best bets for the 2023 Oscars, with odds from our best sportsbooks.

Oscars best bets

  • Best Picture: The Banshees of Inisherin (+250 via PointsBet) - Jan. 25, 2023
  • Best Director: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans (+120 via PointsBet) - Jan. 25, 2023

Best Picture odds 2023

Everything Everywhere All At Once-200-250
The Banshees of Inisherin+225+250
Top Gun: Maverick+1000+1000
The Fabelmans+1100+1100
All Quiet on the Western Front+3500N/A
Women Talking+6500+6000
Avatar: The Way of Water+8000+8000
Triangle of Sadness+10000N/A

Oscars Best Picture odds 2023: Top pick

The Banshees of Inisherin (+250 via PointsBet)

Despite "Everything Everywhere All At Once" commanding much of the attention following its win at the Critics Choice Awards, I'm riding with Martin McDonagh's dark-comedic drama, "The Banshees of Inisherin."

Unlike Kwan and Scheinert, McDonagh has been here before. "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" (a vastly inferior movie to "The Banshees of Inisherin") was nominated for seven Oscars in 2018, winning two for the respective acting performances of Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.

Now, we've seen in recent years that this type of "seniority" doesn't mean as much as it used to, but it may still play a role when one movie is so far removed from the type of film the Academy is generally willing to celebrate, as "Everything Everywhere All At Once" is.

The upcoming Screen Actors Guild Awards could help to provide more clarity, though they've still accurately predicted the Best Picture winner in only two of the last five years (2022 with "CODA" and 2020 with "Parasite"). Equally so, the Critics Choice Awards acted as a predictor of this award in 2021 with "Nomadland" and 2018 with "The Shape of Water," and the Golden Globes also did so in 2021 with "Nomadland" and 2019 with "Green Book."

McDonagh's somber-yet-funny tale won at the Globes and Kwan and Scheinert's wild ride took home the honor at the Critics Choice ceremony. Be sure to keep an eye on the odds as the SAGs approach, as a win for the former could shorten its odds considerably.

PointsBet re-released its Best Picture odds on Jan. 25, providing more value on a "Banshees" win than DraftKings Sportsbook's +225 price.

Oscars Best Picture odds 2023: Contenders

Everything Everywhere All At Once (-200 via DraftKings)

Even if I genuinely did think this movie will win Best Picture - which I'm still unsure of despite its recent wins and the overall quality of the film - these odds are simply far too short at this point.

If you got in a couple of months ago when it was hovering around 4/1, then you could be in a great spot. However, I worry the Academy isn't quite ready to celebrate a film of this nature, so I'll pass on "Everything Everywhere All At Once" unless its odds lengthen some in the coming month and a half.

The Fabelmans (+1100 via DraftKings)

This is the true wild card in this category. Would the Academy really be so predictable as to award Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical "The Fabelmans" this year's Best Picture? It's possible, and at these odds, I might take that gamble.

Over the years, the Academy has regularly gone with the safest option for this award, even if that means honoring what is likely only the second- or third-best film in the category. It could very well do so again.

Elvis (+10000 via DraftKings)

Though it's almost certainly the objectively worst film of the 10 nominated, we've seen crazier things happen. The Academy loves a good biopic, even if they are somewhat exaggerated or borderline fictitious (see: "Green Book").

Between the history of the Academy celebrating similar films, the buzz surrounding Austin Butler's performance as Elvis Presley, and the recent death of Elvis' daughter, Lisa Marie Presley, this should probably be priced closer to the likes of "Tar" and "All Quiet on the Western Front." Don't go crazy, but a speculative bet at 100/1 odds isn't the worst thing you can do. 

Best Director odds 2023

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)-140-134
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)+110+120
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)+1200+1200
Todd Field (Tar)+2000+1000
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)+5000+8000

Oscars Best Director odds 2023: Top pick

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans (+120 via PointsBet)

Spielberg has won Best Director twice before for "Saving Private Ryan" in 1998 and "Schindler's List" in 1993. Only William Wyler, John Ford, and Frank Capra (four wins) have won the award three times. I could see the Academy presenting Spielberg with his third for a film that is presumably close to his heart following a slew of relatively soulless entries in recent years ("West Side Story," "The Post," and "Bridge of Spies").

As is the case with Best Picture, Kwan and Scheinert are the betting favorites, but I'm picking against them once again. Instead, I could see the pair winning for Best Original Screenplay, as the Academy has a history of neatly splitting up awards to appease the masses.

McDonagh is a long shot at +1200, and though I'm picking "The Banshees of Inisherin" to win Best Picture, I don't love his chances in this category.

Best Lead Actor odds 2023

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)-165-167
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)+250+325
Austin Butler (Elvis)+300+300
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)+2500N/A
Bill Nighy (Living)+3500+3300

Oscars Best Lead Actor odds 2023: Top pick

Austin Butler in Elvis (+300 via DraftKings)

I'll start by saying that I hope and expect Brendan Fraser to win this award for his triumphant performance in "The Whale." However, at -165, there's not a ton of value in picking him.

The case for Butler is three-pronged. First, Will Smith won this award last year in a similarly underwhelming biopic for his performance as Richard Williams in "King Richard." As previously mentioned, the Academy loves its biopics, especially those of the paint-by-numbers variety.

Secondly, this award delivered a major shock as recently as two years ago when the show's entire structure changed because the producers - as well as the entire viewing public - expected Chadwick Boseman to win in what was his final performance in a film before his death. Instead, Anthony Hopkins won (in fairness, he was absolutely brilliant in "The Father") to throw the broadcast into disarray.

Finally, as previously mentioned, Butler has the narrative required to dethrone a heavy favorite with an inspiring off-screen story to match his brilliant on-screen performance, as Fraser does.

This should be Fraser's moment in the spotlight, but the Academy could throw a wrench into that party. At +300, I'm willing to bet on being disappointed.

Best Lead Actress odds 2023

Cate Blanchett (Tar)-175-150
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)+125+115
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)+1100N/A
Ana de Armas (Blonde)+2000+2500
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)+3500+3300

Oscars Best Lead Actress odds 2023: Top pick

Cate Blanchett in Tar (-150 via PointsBet)

By all accounts, this is Blanchett's award to lose, and the odds reflect that. I'm not exactly a fan of betting such short odds for the Oscars due to how wildly unpredictable it can be at times. For that reason, I'm staying away from this category for the time being.

However, keep an eye on the SAGs. If Michelle Yeoh can win there, she will enter the Oscars with momentum, and the odds could adjust accordingly. If you can find Blanchett at plus money at any point from now until March 12, take it.

Oscars 2023: Other bets to track

As previously mentioned, I'd keep an eye out for Best Original Screenplay odds, as anything longer than the -200 or -140 "Everything Everywhere All At Once" is trading at on Best Picture and Best Director, respectively, would be a bargain.

Oscars 2023 FAQs

When are the 2023 Oscars?

The 2023 Oscars ceremony will be televised live (though presumably with an extra-lengthy delay thanks to Will Smith) on March 12 at 8 p.m. ET.

Where are the 2023 Oscars held?

The ceremony will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, CA.

What movie is the betting favorite for the 2023 Oscars?

"Everything Everywhere All At Once" is the big favorite (as of Jan. 25, 2023). It owns the shortest odds for the two major awards and is nominated for a whopping 11 in total.

Which film won Best Picture at the 2022 Oscars?

"CODA" won Best Picture in 2022 after winning the equivalent award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. It closed with the second-shortest odds to "The Power of the Dog."

Who won Best Director at the 2022 Oscars?

Jane Campion won for "The Power of the Dog" after closing as a massive favorite, with odds as short as -4000 at some books.

Here are our best sportsbooks:

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