🏇 Kentucky Derby Expert Picks 2026: Best Bets to Win, Long Shots & Exotics
We've finally arrived at the biggest day in horse racing, and our Kentucky Derby expert picks will get you ready for the action today at 6:57 p.m. ET (NBC) from Churchill Downs. Below, we break down our Kentucky Derby predictions with our pick to win, best long shot, and top exotic bets for the 152nd Run for the Roses tonight.
🏇 Kentucky Derby expert picks 2026
See the latest Kentucky Derby odds across the Kentucky Derby betting sites.
| Expert picks | Brian Robin | LJ Blut | C Jackson Cowart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick to win | Commandment | Chief Wallabee | Commandment |
| Long shot | Golden Tempo | Incredibolt | Wonder Dean |
| Exotic bet | $2 exacta (6/7/8/12/19 OVER 1/9/12/15/18/19) | $10 exacta box (1/12) | $1 trifecta key (6 OVER 9/12/19) |
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🏆 Pick to win the Kentucky Derby
See more of our experts' Kentucky Derby picks & predictions for Saturday's race.
Brian Robin: Commandment (6-1) has won five races at five different distances and by distances ranging from a nose to 6 ¾ lengths. Along with that comes a horse who checks the historical boxes of a Derby winner: tactical speed, stalking running style, pedigree (Into Mischief) and never-quit attitude.
LJ Blut: I am all-in on Chief Wallabee (8-1) winning the Kentucky Derby. As I wrote about in my deep dive on why Chief Wallabee will win the Kentucky Derby, he has the ideal post to build an early rhythm and the late kick to catch the leaders on the final turn.
C Jackson Cowart: I'm also backing Commandment (6-1) as the horse with the best profile on paper and one of the best Kentucky Derby post positions to avoid early traffic and strike late, much like he's done across his four straight wins entering the Derby. It helps that my Kentucky Derby AI prediction is backing this horse, too, based on a wealth of historical data.
🎯 Best Kentucky Derby long shot
We break down all of the best Kentucky Derby long shots at Churchill Downs.
Robin: Golden Tempo (30-1) hasn't missed the board in four races (4:2-0-1). You'll have to look hard to find him over the first mile Saturday, because he'll likely be ensconced in 15th, 16th, or 17th place. But that's when Golden Tempo can light up the toteboard - and your tickets - when he repeats his cavalry charge stretch run in the Louisiana Derby and snags a top-four spot. At a huge price.
Blut: I am backing Incredibolt (26-1) as my best long shot to win the Kentucky Derby, as he has the speed to win if the favorites struggle out of the gate. He's shown promise after winning the Virginia Derby by four lengths in March, one of three wins in five starts for the 3-year-old colt.
Cowart: While the best value is likely Golden Tempo for all of the reasons laid out above, I was thrilled to land Wonder Dean (30-1) in our SBR Kentucky Derby Draft as yet another Japanese shipper with promise. He won the UAE Derby by 2 1/2 lengths and boasts strong pedigree with American connections. I get the concern with Japanese horses' rough track record at Churchill Downs, but at this price, I'll take the shot.
🎟️ Best Kentucky Derby exotic bet
Robin: $2 Exacta with No. 6 Commandment, No. 7 Danon Bourbon, No. 8 So Happy, No. 12 Chief Wallabee and No. 19 Further Ado OVER No. 1 Renegade, No. 9 The Puma, No. 12 Chief Wallabee, No. 15 Emerging Market, No. 18 Golden Tempo and No. 19 Further Ado. This $56 wager covers many likely scenarios and most of the expected contenders. If your bankroll can't swing it, make the same bet for $1 ($28 total). If you like a particular horse listed second, move them up accordingly. That's the beauty of this wager.
Blut: My favorite exotic bet is a $10 exacta box featuring No. 1 (Renegade) and No. 12 (Chief Wallabee); these are my two favorite horses in the field and offer strong value together as a 1-2 punch while still returning a worthwhile return on a cheap wager.
Cowart: I'm looking to bet a $1 trifecta key with Commandment over The Puma, Chief Wallabee, and Golden Tempo. Commandment is the anchor leg of this $6 bet; if he wins and any two of the other three picks finish in the top three, we profit big time. That's how I'm looking to bet this race - I'm fading Renegade on the inside post and targeting those four horses above as the strongest bets to take advantage of a wild-open field.
🏇 More Kentucky Derby picks & predictions
- Kentucky Derby picks and predictions
- Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks
- Kentucky Derby odds & betting favorites
- Kentucky Derby AI prediction & picks
- SBR Kentucky Derby draft picks
- Kentucky Derby betting trends
- Kentucky Derby post position
- Why Chief Wallabee will win the Kentucky Derby
📺 How to watch the Kentucky Derby 2026
- When: Saturday, May 2
- Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
- Where: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
- How to watch: NBC | Peacock | NBC Sports App
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