🏇 Kentucky Derby Long Shots & Sleeper Picks 2026: 3 Horses to Bet at Churchill Downs

Yes, Renegade may be the 4-1 morning-line favorite to win Kentucky Derby 152, but the real intrigue and puzzle comes with unearthing the Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks that unlock the potential for mind-boggling winnings.

The 152nd Kentucky Derby, the oldest sporting event in North America, is Saturday, May 2, from Churchill Downs in Louisville. NBC/Peacock/NBCSN will bring you 7 ½ hours of the pageantry, with the partying and the hoof-pounding action starting at noon ET. Post time for the Derby on NBC is approximately 6:57 p.m. ET.

🏇 Kentucky Derby long shots and sleeper picks

Here are my favorite Kentucky Derby long-shot picks for the 2026 Run for the Roses and their odds from FanDuel Racing.

🚨 My best Kentucky Derby long shot picks

Dive into my top long shot sleepers. Looking for Kentucky Derby betting trends or Kentucky Derby post positions? We've got you covered there, too.

🥇 Golden Tempo (30-1)

We’ve talked up our favorite long shot to anyone who will listen. And in case you haven’t heard why, we’ll convince you further. This Curlin progeny checks every box of an overlay who can - and should - hit the board at an eye-popping price.

He hasn’t missed the board in four starts (2-0-2), with a furious third-place finish by a length to Emerging Market and Pavlovian in the Louisiana Derby and a respectable third to Paladin and Chip Honcho in the Risen Star a month earlier. Paladin would have been the Derby favorite had he not suffered an ankle fracture in March.

Again, deep-closing alumni from the Louisiana Derby have a habit of finding their way into Derby superfectas - it’s happened nine times in the last 15 Run for the Roses. From running style to pedigree to closing speed, Golden Tempo perfectly fits the profile of a colt who could make it 10 of 16. Bet him everywhere, including across-the-board.

🥈 Fulleffort (20-1)

Now, the intrigue begins. Now, the questions and head-scratching starts. And they start with the son of Liam’s Map who brings in one of the strongest foundations of any colt in the field. He hasn’t finished worse than fourth in seven races (3-2-1-1), and his rally from ninth to a 2 ½-length victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) was a trip of beauty. 

It came with a 13-second final furlong, which checks the box of legitimate Derby contenders. One race earlier, in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (L), Fulleffort nearly reeled in Great White at the wire, losing by a neck. The stablemate to Commandment in Brad Cox’s deep barn, Fulleffort runs to his name every time out.

Here’s where we return to the intrigue. Fulleffort has never run on dirt. His first four starts, which included two of his three wins, came on turf. The next three came on the Tapeta synthetic surface at Turfway Park. All indications are Fulleffort is responding well to dirt; his Sunday workout (a 59-second five-furlong breeze) was second fastest of 41 at that distance that day and he turned in a bullet (fastest of the day) 59.20 on April 17. But the big question is, will his excellent form and foundation transfer on Derby Day? The price should be there to find out.

🥉 Incredibolt (20-1)

More intrigue! And more questions. That’s what comes with this Bolt d’Oro colt who brings incredible value down-ticket, along with good recent form that manifested itself with his comfortable, four-length romp in the Virginia Derby. 

Nobody’s mistaking a soft Virginia Derby field with Saturday, but nobody’s mistaking the 36.1-second final three furlongs Incredibolt clocked en route to winning. That is the fastest three-furlong closing time in the field and his 11.9-second final furlong clocking was only a tenth behind Renegade’s field-best 11.8. And nobody’s mistaking Incredibolt’s three wins in five races, including two at Churchill Downs.

The intrigue here starts with his sixth-place clunker (by 25 ¼ lengths) in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park. You could chalk that up to not liking Gulfstream Park, but none of the five horses who beat him are in the Derby. But what’s potentially more problematic is trainer Riley Mott’s decision to train Incredibolt up to Saturday after his Virginia Derby win. That was seven weeks ago and since 1956, only two Derby winners for betting purposes have found the Churchill Downs winner’s circle on Derby Day coming off a six-week plus layoff. One of those was Authentic, who won the 2020 pandemic Derby run in September.

🎟️ How to bet Kentucky Derby long shots

Yes, the standard win-place-show options are available for Derby long shots, a nice fact to know when you consider the last six winners went off at average odds of 29.6-1 and that a favorite hasn’t won the Derby since Justify began his Triple Crown campaign in 2018. But the best way to bet long shots is to liberally include them in your vertical exotic wagers: exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

There are two ways to bet exactas, trifectas, and superfectas: straight and box. A straight wager requires a “key” horse or horses that sit atop your ticket, with other horses underneath in the second, third or fourth positions. A straight exacta means you pick the horse or horses you think will win, then the horse or horses you think will finish second underneath. For example, Commandment over Renegade, Further Ado and Golden Tempo. You win your bet if Commandment wins and either Renegade, Further Ado, or Golden Tempo finishes second. This is good when you like a particular horse to win.

📦 Kentucky Derby box wagers

With a box, you can throw all four on a ticket, and if any combination finishes first or second - in any order - you win the bet. It works the same for a trifecta or superfecta. A box wager offers flexibility, but that comes at a price. Understand the more horses you throw in a box, the more expensive the wager. A box wager is good for beginners and good if you like several horses, but aren’t quite sure on the order of finish.

If you’re really bullish on a horse, bet them “across the board.” That is a wager where you bet a set amount–$2 for example–to finish first, second and third. If your horse hits the board, you cash and if he wins, you cash three ways. A $2 across-the-board wager is $6 and you can increase it in any amount north of that. It will cost you three times your unit price to make this bet.

❓ Kentucky Derby FAQs

Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby 2026?

Kentucky sports betting is up and running, so Kentucky horse racing fans should be able to bet from anywhere in the state for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. You can also check out our list of the best Kentucky Derby betting sites here.

Who is the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite?

The current favorite is Renegade (4-1).

How long is the Kentucky Derby track?

The race distance for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby this year?

The 2026 edition of the Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 2.

Where is the 2026 Kentucky Derby held?

The Kentucky Derby is held annually at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.