United States Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
My United States Grand Prix predictions for Sunday’s race at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) feature three picks, including who to back to win.
After winning consecutive races, Max Verstappen is the +110 betting favorite. He has my vote to make it three in a row. I’m also expecting a solid outing from Kimi Antonelli and Isack Hadjar, with the former receiving the second-shortest odds.
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United States Grand Prix odds 2026
Top United States Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +110 | 47.62% | $11 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| George Russell | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Lando Norris | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Isack Hadjar | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
All other drivers are trading at +50000 or longer.
United States Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made before P1
| Bet | Units | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Max Verstappen to win (+110 via BetMGM) | 2u -> 2.2u | Winner of two in a row, Verstappen has been historically excellent in Austin. |
| Kimi Antonelli top-2 finish (-150 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.67u | Antonelli has finished among the top 2 in 5 of the previous 8 races. |
| Isack Hadjar top-5 finish (+100 via FanDuel) | 2u -> 1.33u | Hadjar has finished among the top 6 in nine of the previous 10 races. |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.2 units
Pick to win United States Grand Prix: Max Verstappen (+110)
Verstappen enters Sunday’s race on the back of consecutive GP victories. He won the Bahrain GP in Malaysia and also took the checkered flag at the Singapore GP.
Prior to his successive victories, Verstappen had a pair of second-place finishes. And now he’s headed to the United States GP, where he has won four of the previous five, including last year.
The consistent upgrades give Verstappen even more confidence, as Red Bull has the best in-class power unit. That’s more than enough to back the Dutchman in a third straight race.
Kimi Antonelli top-2 finish (-150)
Antonelli hasn’t won in three straight races, and I don’t think he’ll be victorious in Austin. However, the Italian has finished among the top two in five of the previous eight races, and Mercedes has upgraded its car for Austin.
The extent of those upgrades and how effective they will be are still unknown, but Circuit of the Americas suits the W17.
It has many medium- to high-speed corners and a long back straight. It’s only the second time this season that Antonelli hasn’t tasted victory in three straight races. He went on to win the Belgian GP the last time it happened.
Isack Hadjar top-6 finish (-150)
This is a sneaky good bet. Hadjar has enjoyed an unassuming, yet successful season by his standards. And he’s on a run, finishing in the top six in nine of the previous 10 races.
In five of those races, he finished among the top five. The +100 odds to earn a top-five spot are enticing, and I’m inclined to make that bet as well. As discussed, Circuit of the Americas shouldn’t give the RB22 any issues.
And Hadjar has been the most consistent driver outside of the marquee names this season. He finished 10th in Singapore, not because of his performance, but because of a series of technical issues. I don’t expect those issues to resurface.
Past United States Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2020 | No Event | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercede\s |
| 2018 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
2026 United States Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Oct. 23 @ 1:30 p.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Oct. 23 @ 5 p.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Oct. 24 @ 1:30 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Oct. 24 @ 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Oct. 25 @ 4 p.m. ET
How to watch 2026 United States Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 25
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Circuit of the Americas (Austin, Texas)
- How to watch: ESPN
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