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U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during an event to celebrate the 2023 Stanley Cup victory of the Vegas Golden Knights as we look our 2024 U.S. presidential election odds.
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks during an event to celebrate the 2023 Stanley Cup victory of the Vegas Golden Knights. Photo by Saul Loeb/AFP.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election odds place the candidates in a nearly dead-even race at our best sports betting sites (outside the U.S.) prior to November's election.

Donald Trump was listed at minus odds across our best sports betting apps not long ago. He was surging and dominating, and although it was very early, Joe Biden's campaign seemed to be falling deeper into a hole.

Now there's been a swift role reversal, and the Donald Trump odds show the challenger is stuck in quicksand. Biden once trailed significantly, but now one of our best sportsbooks lists the two candidates as even. Even worse for Trump, this is all coming with negative headlines on the way and the Stormy Daniels hush-money trial beginning.

Here's our look at the top 2024 U.S. presidential election odds (odds available only from Ontario sports betting sites).

2024 Presidential election betting odds

(U.S. presidential election odds as of April 15)

Donald Trump+100 ❄️+110+110+110 
Joe Biden+110+120+125 🔥+110
Michelle Obama+1600+2500 🔥+1600+1600
Robert Kennedy Jr.+1600+2000+2800 🔥+1600 
Gavin Newsom+2800+3000 +3300 🔥+2800
Kamala Harris+3500 +4000+4000+3300 ❄️
Gretchen Whitmer+6500+5500 ❄️+6600+7000 🔥
Nikki Haley+5000 +5000 +6600 🔥+5000 
Elizabeth Warren+15000+20000 +20000+15000

Latest presidential election odds updates 2024

  • April 15, 2024: The Stormy Daniels hush-money case begins with jury selection, a process that could take up to two weeks due to the 96-person jury pool. It's now officially the first time a former president has faced criminal charges. Trump needs to be present for the trial, which will clearly hurt his campaign efforts. The trial will take place four days per week and is expected to last roughly eight weeks.
  • April 7, 2024: Several new polls show the candidates are in a statistical dead heat. That includes a Marist poll, which shows Biden holding a two-point lead. Also and maybe more importantly at this stage, 40% of respondents to a different question on the same poll said they're open to changing their mind.
  • April 2, 2024: Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. calls Biden a "much worse threat to democracy" than Trump, citing a Supreme Court case that will gauge how much the government can pressure social media companies to remove false posts (on theories tied to COVID-19, for example). However, while making that remark, Kennedy didn't comment on the many court cases tied to Trump, which include attempts to overturn the 2020 election result.
  • March 29, 2024: The polling shift for Biden continues, with a Morning Consult poll showing him sitting in a good spot again while two percentage points ahead of Trump. The same poll showed Trump holding as much as a six-point lead not long ago in early March.
  • March 25, 2024: Merchan's ruling came on the same day that a separate appeals court reduced Trump's immediate payment for a civil fraud penalty from $454 million to $175 million. Trump, who has built his brand mostly off of his elite status and extreme wealth, could have had his properties seized without the reduction.
  • March 22, 2024: Biden continues to trail notably in polls, with the most recent one from Activote showing over a five-point advantage for Trump.
  • March 20, 2024: Trump is struggling to finalize a payment for his $464-million civil fraud penalty that's the result of a ruling from late February. He needs to post a bond before a March 25 deadline, and in a filing his attorneys called doing that a "practicle impossibility." Failing to do so could result in the state of New York seizing some of Trump's bank accounts or properties.
  • March 12, 2024: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who's well-known for his authoritarian policies, says after meeting with Trump that the Republican candidate would cut off military funding and "not give a penny" to Ukraine if re-elected.
  • March 11, 2024: Alabama senator Katie Britt gave the rebuttal to Trump's State of the Union address for the Republicans, and she continues to face a backlash regarding an apparently distorted story told about a young woman who was sex trafficked. Britt used the story to criticize Biden's border policies. However, Jacinto Romero, the trafficking victim, said it took place in Mexico between 2004 and 2008 and not in America. That was also when Republican George W. Bush was president.
  • March 5, 2024: Mitch McConnell endorses Trump following the candidate's dominance on Super Tuesday, saying he looks forward to working with the former president again. The two have often sparred publicly, making this endorsement even more significant.
  • March 5, 2024: Haley gave a speech in her home state of South Carolina while officially dropping out. She didn't endorse Trump, instead saying "I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be president."
  • March 4, 2024: A ruling that felt inevitable was made official, with the Supreme Court ruling that Trump can stay on the ballot in Colorado. The state's highest court had ruled to remove Trump in a case that leaned on the "insurrectionist clause" included in the 14th Amendment. However, during deliberations in February, it became clear that the Supreme Court judges were skeptical of how far-reaching a state's power could be in this instance. Even the liberal-leaning judges joined that chorus, resulting in a unanimous 9-0 vote in favor of keeping Trump on the ballot. The decision is a massive win for Trump, as the case was the most significant legal election hurdle he faced, though other criminal proceedings are ongoing.
  • Feb. 27, 2024: Biden speaks at the border and challenges Trump to back a bill that would improve border security. "Instead of playing politics with the issue, join me, or I’ll join you in telling the Congress to pass this bill," he said. "You know and I know it’s the toughest, most efficient, most effective border security bill this country’s ever seen.”
  • Feb. 26, 2024: Haley has repeatedly said that she's staying in the race at least through Super Tuesday. However, it's often true that a lack of funds forces candidates to drop out more so than poor results. If that's the case in 2024, then Haley has been dealt multiple massive financial blows since the South Carolina loss, including billionaires Reid Hoffman and Charles Koch pulling their funding.
  • Feb. 20, 2024: Biden was asked if he would rather run against Trump or Haley. The president nonchalantly waved off the question and said "I don't care."
  • Feb. 19, 2024: Haley remains steadfast in her determination to continue in the Republican race despite being far behind in polling and trailing 63.5% to 33.5% in South Carolina. She said that many members of her party who now embrace Trump publicly dread him privately. Haley added that she doesn't fear retribution from Trump and feels no need to "kiss the ring."
  • Feb. 12, 2024: Who would've thought the Super Bowl would be a stomping ground for seeing the odds swing for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? After the Super Bowl, Biden sent a tweet out that did not age well with the public for various reasons. Also, independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. saw a Super Bowl advertisement that drew some controversy regarding the use of his family's images. As a result, Biden's odds have lengthened while Kennedy, Obama, and Newsom all saw their odds shorten.
  • Feb. 9, 2024: Biden's age is now becoming a concern for voters, which has seen the odds move accordingly for both him and Michelle Obama. Robert Hur's report, which was released Thursday, asserted that Biden was elderly and forgetful. This comes on the heels of Biden referring to the Egyptian president as Mexico's and confusing recent European leader names with those he interacted with in the 1980s.
  • Feb. 5, 2024: Biden destroyed the South Carolina primary playing field with an overly impressive 96.2% of the votes to secure 55 delegates. Dean Phillips saw his odds lengthen over the weekend as he secured only 1.7% of votes.
  • Jan. 29, 2024: There hasn't been much news over the last week, with the South Carolina primaries coming up for the Democratic party on Feb. 3, 2024. For the Republicans, Trump currently leads with 35 of the needed 1,215 to win the nomination. Hayley is behind Trump with 17 delegates.
  • Jan. 23, 2024: The New Hampshire primaries concluded Tuesday night with Trump and Biden win their respective party votes. Trump took over 50%, as did Biden, but Haley was able to secure six delegates with an impressive 44%.
  • Jan. 21, 2024: DeSantis suspends his campaign and endorses Trump as the Republican nominee. The New Hampshire primaries on Jan. 23 will probably shift odds.
  • Jan. 16, 2024: Trump took the Iowa caucus with ease on Monday night, winning over 50% of the vote while reeling in 20 delegates. The odds haven't shifted much, although bet365 did shorten DeSantis to 25/1 after he placed second despite Haley's recent push.
  • Jan. 15, 2024: Florida Senator Marco Rubio recently endorsed Trump. That's surprising because Haley, who endorsed Rubio in 2016, has been climbing the odds to possibly challenge Trump in the Republican primaries. The odds haven't experienced much movement, as oddsmakers believe Haley is still a great pick should Trump not run for any reason.
  • Jan. 8, 2024: The big news entering the new year is out of Maine and Colorado. The ripple effect is taking place as everyone awaits the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court. Maine's Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is facing a possible though highly unlikely impeachment for removing Trump's name from the voting ballot. Meanwhile, Trump himself is warning about "big trouble" if Maine and Colorado leave him off the ballot. All while this is going on, both Haley's and Vivek Ramaswamy's odds for the Republican party continue to grow closer to Trump's price. We'll await the U.S. Supreme Court decision, but it appears Haley or Ramaswamy could threaten Trump for the Republican nomination.

Favorites to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

For the first time in a long while, Trump isn't getting minus odds. He's almost universally at +110 and only narrowly ahead of Biden on the oddsboard after once being a dominant force and the faraway front-runner.

The incumbent was listed as long as +185 through BetMGM on the day after Super Tuesday. And even during the last week of March, he was still at +165 through DraftKings. Now bet365 is listing the two candidates with even +110 odds, and Biden is only a half-step behind at DraftKings while featured at +110 to Trump's even money. The longest price tied to Biden is the +125 at BetMGM. In the winning party market, the Democrats are also now getting better odds than the Republicans through FanDuel.

Biden has been chugging along steadily and gaining ground in the odds since his State of the Union speech. Trump has been coming back to him just as gradually, perhaps in part due to the continued negative headlines tied to his legal entanglements, with the Daniels matter taking center stage now.

This has been a two-candidate race for a while, and the prices for those beyond Biden on the board indicate both the books and the public agree on that reality. But the Michelle Obama odds still curiously sit far ahead of actual active politicians, and her prices have even been shortening considerably at some books while plunging from around +2500 to +1600. She's never been in the race in any capacity and has expressed no public interest in the presidency. In early March a representative from her office even emphatically said Obama won't be running.

Obama Speech

Meanwhile, a looming question hovers over both the election campaign, and by extension the U.S. Presidential election odds from our best sports betting apps: How much will voters care about Trump's legal issues come election day?

A recent Ipsos poll showed that a significant portion of respondents said the results of the hush-money trial (42%) and the potential election subversion case (44%) wouldn't impact their likelihood of voting for Trump in either direction.

Still, a basic yet core aim during a campaign is to keep your name in the headlines for positive reasons, and to minimize negativity. Trump certainly isn't positioned to do either.

Republican vice presidential candidate odds

With the Republican field settled and the early days of a general election campaign now beginning, attention is turning to who will be Trump's running mate. Kamala Harris remains in place alongside Biden on the Democratic side.

Currently, two of our best sports betting apps are posting odds for who Trump will pick this time. Mike Pence served as the vice president during Trump's first term.

Tom Scott+300+400
Kristi Noem+450+700
Tulsi Gabbard+450+450
J.D. Vance+850+1000
Elise Stefanik+950+1100
Ben Carson+1000+1000
Nikki Haley+1200+1400
Marco Rubio+1500+1800
Vivek Ramaswamy+1500+1400
Sarah Huckabee Sanders+2500+1800

Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, and Vivek Ramaswamy have long been highly visible and vocal supporters of Trump. They tied for the highest percentage of votes during a CPAC straw poll when the audience was asked who should be Trump's running mate, with each receiving 15% of the votes.

Ramaswamy enjoyed a moment in the spotlight as one of the Republican presidential candidates. Trump didn't participate in any of the debates, and Ramaswamy's comments drew attention during one of the early events when he praised Trump repeatedly, with many of his policy ideas aligning with the former president's stances. He was among the leaders here until falling off recently, with the likes of Tim Scott and Tulsi Gabbard soaring up to join a clear breakaway pack.

The most significant recent change in these odds is Gabbard dropping from +1800 all the way down to +450, joining Noem and Scott to form a trio that's ahead significantly.

Caesars is also offering a "will the vice presidential Republican nominee be a woman?" market, with "yes" the favorite at -170. "No" is getting +140 odds.

Presidential election odds: Non-political candidates

The 2024 election could feature the most prominent third-party candidate in 32 years. Robert Kennedy Jr. holds a legitimate chance to steal votes from each major party candidate and make a serious impact, which both Trump and Biden have acknowledged.

His main role will be that of disruptor and vote-splitter though, as Kennedy's odds remain lengthy.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.+2000+2800
Kanye West+25000+20000
Tucker Carlson+425000+20000
Meghan MarkleN/A+20000
Oprah WinfreyN/A+20000
Mark ZuckerbergN/A+20000
Michael BloombergN/A+30000
Joe RoganN/A+30000
George ClooneyN/A+50000

2024 president prediction

There's still a long, meandering road ahead to election day. That journey may seem even longer in 2024 because the primary process ended much earlier than usual. The top candidates from both sides went into general election campaigning mode earlier, and far ahead of the Democratic and Republican conventions.

That's important to note when trying to forecast a likely rematch between two candidates who are prone to public stumbles of various kinds. Let that function as a caveat here, because plenty can happen to disrupt the trajectories of Trump and Biden.

Trump Hats

However, Biden's path is increasingly feeling like a difficult one for someone who isn't as nimble at the stump as in past years. Public perception about his age and the economy have been hardening. It's certainly possible he can still function at a high level while aging, and the economy has been rebounding for a while. But polls repeatedly show voters are stuck on a negative view of both, leading to a steep uphill battle for Biden. 

Combine his issues with Trump being well-positioned on the map to again earn an electoral college win even if he loses the popular vote, and it feels increasingly likely that Trump wins the 2024 presidency.

Winning party odds

Democrats-120+110-115-120 ❄️
Independent+2500+2500+2500 +2000 ❄️

Winning gender odds


Popular vote winner odds

Any other party+2500

U.S. presidential election winners

Year(Election #)Winner (Party)Winner OddsRunner-up (Party)Runner-up Odds
2020 (59)Joe Biden (D)-175Donald Trump (R)+150
2016 (58)Donald Trump (R)+375Hillary Clinton (D)-550
2012 (57)Barack Obama (D)-450Mitt Romney (R)+360
2008 (56)Barack Obama (D)-900John McCain (R)+800
2004 (55)George W. Bush (R)-188John Kerry (D)+138
2000 (54)George W. Bush (R)-175Al Gore (D)+125
1996 (53)Bill Clinton (D)-1000Bob Dole (R)+600
1992 (52) ++Bill Clinton (D)-800George H. W. Bush (R)+500
1988 (51)George H. W. Bush (R)-700Michael Dukakis (D)+400
1984 (50)Ronald Reagan (R)-700Walter Mondale (D)+450
1980 (49)Ronald Reagan (R)-110Jimmy Carter (D)-110
1976 (48)Jimmy Carter (D)+100Gerald Ford (R)-120

Trump was the first candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an election as the underdog. Trump was the heavy dog to Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Carter was a small dog to incumbent Gerald Ford in ‘76. Trump’s win is the clear outlier based on recent data, and going back as far as 1872, Trump was the second-biggest underdog to win a presidential election, behind only Harry Truman’s improbable defeat of Thomas Dewey in 1948 at +1500 odds.

Odds among the top candidates will move frequently until the election in November, but bettors should keep in mind that the favorite has won in 25 of the last 30 presidential elections.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump remains the betting favorite (+110) to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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