Presidential Election Betting Odds 2024: Trump Remains Out Front as Harris Looks to Seal Nomination

Something strange is emerging that we haven't seen often during this upside down election season: clarity.

Kamala Harris is cruising toward being the Democratic nominee after Joe Biden dropped out on July 21, a little over three weeks after his disastrous debate performance that ultimately led to his undoing. She's obtained the support of the required delegates to earn the nomination, according to The Associated Press.

The party is expected to hold a virtual roll call in early August, and she would then almost certainly become the nominee at the end of that procedure. Combine that with a surge of enthusiasm and campaign donations, and Harris is gradually climbing up the oddsboards at our best Ontario sports betting apps.

She's the overwhelming Democratic party presidential nominee odds favorite at the best political betting sites (outside the U.S.), and seemingly every major voice within the party is now supporting her, including most recently Barack Obama.

However, the Donald Trump odds still show the Republican Candidate as the easy front-runner, though Harris has chipped away at his lead a bit recently. The former president still maintains his status as a heavy favorite in the U.S. presidential election odds from our best Ontario sports betting apps. His odds of -175 imply a 63.64% probability he'll win the Nov. 5 election. 

Presidential election betting odds

(U.S. presidential election odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada as of July 26. U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit social sportsbook BetRivers.net, which is available in most U.S. states | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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Latest presidential election odds updates

• July 26, 2024: After advocating for an open process to select a nominee during the Democratic National Convention, Barack Obama calls Harris to give his endorsement, according to The Guardian.
• July 21, 2024: Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California who's widely viewed as a presidential candidate someday, joins a list of leading Democrats endorsing Harris, according to the Wall Street Journal. That group also includes Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg.
• July 21, 2024: Gretchen Whitmer hasn't made a similar public statement yet, but her actions are speaking loudly. She joined a call with the Harris for President staff on Sunday night, according to Politico, and that alone is a strong indication of support.
• July 21, 2024: Biden announced via X that he decided not to accept the Democratic nomination and is endorsing vice president Kamala Harris as his potential successor.
• July 18, 2024: CNN's John King reports during the network's panel discussion at the Republican National Convention that the next 72 hours are critical for Biden. The president is currently self-isolating while dealing with COVID-19, and a group of leaders within the party are now making the strong and perhaps final push to get Biden out of the race, according to Axios. That includes Nancy Pelosi, Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, and House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries. Specifically, there's concern over post-convention polls showing a colossal blowout is coming, and worse, that the Democrats could lose any shot they have to regain the House. Axios also reports that we've entered when, not if, territory regarding Biden moving aside.
• July 17, 2024: An Associated Press poll shows that nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw.
• July 15, 2024: Trump names J.D. Vance as his running mate during Day 1 of the Republican National Convention. Vance, who hails from the battleground state of Ohio, was dubbed the "best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States."
• July 14, 2024: Biden called Trump briefly, and he addressed the awful event in a speech. "There is no place in America for this kind violence, or any violence for that matter," he said. "An assassination attempt is contrary to everything we stand for as a nation. Everything. It’s not who we are as a nation. It’s not America. And we cannot allow this to happen. Unity is the most elusive goal of all, but nothing is as important as that right now: Unity."
• July 12, 2024: At least 16 Democrats have now called on Biden to step down, according to the BBC, with several others expressing concern.
• July 10, 2024: George Clooney pens a New York Times op-ed in which he says the Democratic party needs a new nominee. Clooney is a major celebrity donor who helped the party raise $30 million through a Los Angeles fundraiser.
• July 10, 2024: Money speaks loudly, and CNN reports that Democratic donors are deeply concerned and withholding significant checks. "“Everything is frozen because no one knows what’s going to happen. Everyone is in wait and see mode,” a Democratic strategist said. Biden has fallen fast in the Democratic presidential odds.
• July 5, 2024: Mike Quigley, a Democratic House representative from Illinois, becomes the fourth member of his party to publicly call for Biden to step aside. Quigley told Chris Hayes of MSNC that Biden's "legacy is set" and "the only thing that you can do now, to cement that for all time and prevent utter catastrophe, is to step down and let someone else do this," according to The Hill.
• July 5. 2024: Biden did his first post-debate interview on July 5 on ABC News with George Stephanopoulos. Overall it was an attempt to calm the waters and quell fears about his cognitive ability. It's difficult to say how successful he was on that front, but Biden seemed far more coherent and didn't make any disastrous missteps. Despite what feels like a mounting push among Democrats to replace him, Biden remained defiant about running while saying only the "lord almighty" could make him drop out. July 4, 2024: Biden tells a Wisconsin radio station that he "screwed up" during the debate, but says he plans to stay in the race and urges voters to judge him on his work in the White House. Even more strongly, he told his campaign staffers "no one is pushing me out" and "I'm not leaving," according to a BBC report.
• July 3, 2024: Reid Hastings, the co-founder of Netflix, becomes the latest major donor to call for Biden to step down. "Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous," he said in an email to The New York Times.
• July 2, 2024: The most notable addition to at least raise questions about Biden is Nancy Pelosi, one of the most prominent Democrats. "I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode, or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate - of both candidates," the former Speaker of the House said during an interview on MSNBC.
• July 3, 2024: In the most damaging post-debate poll results yet for Biden, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows the incumbent six percentage points behind Trump. A Wall Street Journal poll revealed the same result, according to Reuters. Unsurprisingly, 80% of the respondents to the Journal said Biden is too old to run. A CBS News poll also shows that Trump holds a three-point lead in several key battleground states.
• July 3, 2024: Harris passes Biden on the odds to win the 2024 presidential election after a CNN pole found 45% of registered voters would support Harris in a hypothetical race against Trump.
• July 2, 2024: Democrat Lloyd Dogget, who represents a blue district in Austin, Texas, becomes the first sitting member of his party in Congress to call on the president to step down. "Too much is at stake to risk a Trump victory—too great a risk to assume that what could not be turned around in a year, what was not turned around in the debate, can be turned around now," he said, according to MSNBC.
• July 2, 2024: An Ipsos poll shows that nearly every potential replacement for Biden is far behind Trump in a hypothetical general election race. Harris is only narrowly one percentage point back. But Gretchen Whitmer (five points) and J.B. Pritzker (six points) trail significantly. Only Michelle Obama (11 points) is far ahead, but the former first lady has repeatedly said she's not running.
• June 30, 2024: Biden speaks at a campaign rally in North Carolina less than 24 hours after the debate, and he's noticeably more energetic, with his speech far more clear and thoughts flowing better. However, he's using a teleprompter and not speaking freely and in an unrehearsed setting, as he needed to during the debate.
• June 27, 2024: The reviews of Biden's debate performance were immediately damning, with Politico calling it the worst in American history. Beyond Biden's frequent incoherence, perhaps the most damaging part of his evening was his inability to clearly call out Trump's statements that were shaky at best. Missing the mark on Trump's ties to and activity during the Jan. 6 riots was a main example among many.
• June 27, 2024: Another was the debate over the "suckers and losers" line from Trump, which was allegedly said regarding World War I soliders. Biden wasn't as strong as he surely intended to be here as well. However, Trump claimed The Atlantic fabricated the line, but as CNN points out, John Kelly, Trump's former White House Chief of staff and secretary of homeland security, said in 2018 that Trump did use those words in reference to servicemembers.
• June 25, 2024: Predictably, Trump holds an advantage in more than just the odds. the latest post-conviction polls show his lead growing, including his four-point gap in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
• June 13, 2024: Most general election polling following Trump's conviction shows a race that's still close, but it hasn't changed substantially. Trump is usually shown with up to a two-point lead, including in polls from Ipsos and YouGov.
• June 10 2024: Biden's approval rating bottoms out to an all-time low of 37.4%, prompting pollster and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver to suggest that we may be progressing to a point where the risk of staying in the race is greater than the risk of dropping out for Biden and the Democrats.
• May 31, 2024: Trump's lawyer Todd Blanche tells CNN's Kaitlan Collins that his team was "prepared for a conviction" and now they will "vigorously fight" while filing motions to judge Juan Merchan. If that fails, he said an appeal will be launched as soon as possible.
• May 30, 2024: At long last, the jurors reached a verdict in the hush-money case against Trump: guilty on all 34 felony counts. The jury reached a verdict at 4:20 p.m. ET, shortly before they would likely have been sent home for the day, and the country waited with bated breath for roughly 30 minutes as they filled out the verdict sheet. The result is the first conviction of a former U.S. president in American history, though Trump remained the favorite by the latest election odds in the immediate aftermath of the verdict.
• May 29, 2024: Jurors in the hush-money case get their instructions before deliberations from judge Juan Merchan. A key direction is to not rely solely or too heavily on the testimony of Michael Cohen. Trump's former lawyer and fixer was a critical witness for the prosecution. Cohen testified that he was directly involved in the alleged effort to cover up the payment made to Stormy Daniels. "Even if you find the testimony of Michael Cohen to be believable, you may not convict the defendant solely on that testimony unless you find it was corroborated by other evidence," Merchan said. Cohen also said he gave Stormy Daniels the money out of his own account, and that afterward, Trump agreed to pay him back through monthly installments disguised as legal fees.
• May 28, 2024: Both parties make their closing arguments in the hush-money case, with the prosecution's presentation lasting nearly five hours. Trump voiced his complaints in all caps on Truth Social. Specifically, Trump claims he was told his team couldn't use the "reliance on counsel" defense. But his attorneys were never prohibited from using that in reference to the hush-money decision. Instead, they told the judge that defense wouldn't be leaned on during the proceedings.
• May 23, 2024: Donald Trump Jr. defends his father's decision to stay away from the stand in the hush-money trial. "There’d be absolutely no reason, no justification to do that whatsoever," he said. "Everyone sees it for the sham that it is." Keeping the defendant off the stand isn't uncommon, as the burden of proof in a case of this nature lies much more heavily with the prosecution.
• May 22, 2024: The hush-money trial is beginning to wrap up and reach the deliberation stage. The conclusion is coming with the defense having called just two witnesses, neither of whom was Trump himself. Meanwhile, the Manhattan district attorney's office brought 20 witnesses to the stand over 15 days of testimony.
• May 21, 2024: Trump shares and then later deletes a campaign video on his Truth Social account that includes the phrase "unified Reich." The video seemed typical enough at first, but in the background, there's a reference to the "creation of a unified Reich" in Trump's America, in addition to "German industrial strength." Inevitably, Biden brought up the video, saying during a Boston fundraiser that the "threat Trump poses is greater the second time around than it was the first."
• May 16, 2024: Michael Cohen's time on the stand continues, and his testimony on Thursday includes discussing comments made on his podcast, in which he said Trump is "about to get a taste of what I went through, and I promise you it's not fun." Cohen served time for tax evasion, making false statements to a financial institution, and wilfully causing an unlawful corporate contribution.
• May 15, 2024: Biden requests and is granted an early debate date, and his motivation is unclear. But one possibility is that he trails in the polls again, albeit slightly. There's surely also the goal to battle fears about mental fitness early, and to make the election about Trump vs. Biden, rather than voters focusing more on the latter's policies.
• May 9, 2024: Stormy Daniels herself takes to the stand during Trump's hush-money trial. Inevitably, lurid details about her alleged sexual encounter with Trump were laid out, prompting defense attorneys to request a mistrial, an ask that judge Juan Merchan denied. However, the root of the case lies in what happened after that encounter, and whether Trump did indeed attempt to hide a reimbursement for Daniels' hush money and classify it as "legal expenses."
• May 6, 2024: Day 12 of the hush-money trial began with a moment of contentiousness between Trump and Judge Juan Merchan. The latter is displeased with Trump continually violating gag orders for what he can say publicly about witnesses involved in the case. Trump has been given $1,000 fines, but Merchan said those penalties clearly aren't working, and being held for contempt of court is the next step. "Mr. Trump, the last thing I want to do is put you in jail," Merchan said. "You are a former president of the United States and possibly the next one, too."
• May 3, 2024: Hope Hicks, Trump's former close advisor, takes the witness stand during the hush-money trial. She described the campaign's initial reaction to the infamous Access Hollywood tape as "deny, deny, deny."
• April 30, 2024: A second week of testimony in the hush-money trial begins. First up is Gary Farro, an ex-banker for Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer. Farro discussed being misled about the purpose of a shell company, which Cohen set up as a way to hide a $130,000 hush-money payment to Stormy Daniels.
• April 30, 2024: Also testifying was Keith Davison, the lawyer for Daniels who detailed the agreement he made with the National Enquirer on behalf of Daniels.
• April 22, 2024: Opening statements are being made in the hush-money trial, with the prosecution saying a scheme began in 2015, shortly after Trump announced his candidacy to run in the 2016 election.
• April 21, 2024: Michael Avenatti, who was once Stormy Daniels' attorney, wants to testify in favor of Trump in the hush-money trial, and he recently told the New York Post that the defense has contacted him. Avenatti is currently serving a 19-year jail sentence for extortion, tax evasion, fraud, embezzlement, and other federal crimes.
• April 15, 2024: The Stormy Daniels hush-money case begins with jury selection, a process that could take up to two weeks due to the 96-person jury pool. It's now officially the first time a former president has faced criminal charges. Trump needs to be present for the trial, which will clearly hurt his campaign efforts. The trial will take place four days per week and is expected to last roughly eight weeks.
• April 7, 2024: Several new polls show the candidates are in a statistical dead heat. That includes a Marist poll, which shows Biden holding a two-point lead. Also and maybe more importantly at this stage, 40% of respondents to a different question on the same poll said they're open to changing their mind.
• April 2, 2024: Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. calls Biden a "much worse threat to democracy" than Trump, citing a Supreme Court case that will gauge how much the government can pressure social media companies to remove false posts (on theories tied to COVID-19, for example). However, while making that remark, Kennedy didn't comment on the many court cases tied to Trump, which include attempts to overturn the 2020 election result.
• March 29, 2024: The polling shift for Biden continues, with a Morning Consult poll showing him sitting in a good spot again while two percentage points ahead of Trump. The same poll showed Trump holding as much as a six-point lead not long ago in early March.
• March 25, 2024: Merchan's ruling came on the same day that a separate appeals court reduced Trump's immediate payment for a civil fraud penalty from $454 million to $175 million. Trump, who has built his brand mostly off of his elite status and extreme wealth, could have had his properties seized without the reduction.
• March 22, 2024: Biden continues to trail notably in polls, with the most recent one from Activote showing over a five-point advantage for Trump.
• March 20, 2024: Trump is struggling to finalize a payment for his $464-million civil fraud penalty that's the result of a ruling from late February. He needs to post a bond before a March 25 deadline, and in a filing his attorneys called doing that a "practicle impossibility." Failing to do so could result in the state of New York seizing some of Trump's bank accounts or properties.
• March 12, 2024: Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who's well-known for his authoritarian policies, says after meeting with Trump that the Republican candidate would cut off military funding and "not give a penny" to Ukraine if re-elected.
• March 11, 2024: Alabama senator Katie Britt gave the rebuttal to Biden's State of the Union address for the Republicans, and she continues to face a backlash regarding an apparently distorted story told about a young woman who was sex trafficked. Britt used the story to criticize Biden's border policies. However, Jacinto Romero, the trafficking victim, said it took place in Mexico between 2004 and 2008 and not in America. That was also when Republican George W. Bush was president.
• March 5, 2024: Mitch McConnell endorses Trump following the candidate's dominance on Super Tuesday, saying he looks forward to working with the former president again. The two have often sparred publicly, making this endorsement even more significant.
• March 4, 2024: A ruling that felt inevitable was made official, with the Supreme Court ruling that Trump can stay on the ballot in Colorado. The state's highest court had ruled to remove Trump in a case that leaned on the "insurrectionist clause" included in the 14th Amendment. However, during deliberations in February, it became clear that the Supreme Court judges were skeptical of how far-reaching a state's power could be in this instance. Even the liberal-leaning judges joined that chorus, resulting in a unanimous 9-0 vote in favor of keeping Trump on the ballot. The decision is a massive win for Trump, as the case was the most significant legal election hurdle he faced, though other criminal proceedings are ongoing.
• Feb. 27, 2024: Biden speaks at the border and challenges Trump to back a bill that would improve border security. "Instead of playing politics with the issue, join me, or I’ll join you in telling the Congress to pass this bill," he said. "You know and I know it’s the toughest, most efficient, most effective border security bill this country’s ever seen.”
• Feb. 12, 2024: Who would've thought the Super Bowl would be a stomping ground for seeing the odds swing for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? After the Super Bowl, Biden sent a tweet out that did not age well with the public for various reasons. Also, independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. saw a Super Bowl advertisement that drew some controversy regarding the use of his family's images. As a result, Biden's odds have lengthened while Kennedy, Obama, and Newsom all saw their odds shorten.
• Feb. 9, 2024: Biden's age is now becoming a concern for voters, which has seen the odds move accordingly for both him and Michelle Obama. Robert Hur's report, which was released Thursday, asserted that Biden was elderly and forgetful. This comes on the heels of Biden referring to the Egyptian president as Mexico's and confusing recent European leader names with those he interacted with in the 1980s.
• Jan. 21, 2024: DeSantis suspends his campaign and endorses Trump as the Republican nominee. The New Hampshire primaries on Jan. 23 will probably shift odds.
• Jan. 8, 2024: The big news entering the new year is out of Maine and Colorado. The ripple effect is taking place as everyone awaits the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court. Maine's Democratic Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is facing a possible though highly unlikely impeachment for removing Trump's name from the voting ballot. Meanwhile, Trump himself is warning about "big trouble" if Maine and Colorado leave him off the ballot. All while this is going on, both Haley's and Vivek Ramaswamy's odds for the Republican party continue to grow closer to Trump's price. We'll await the U.S. Supreme Court decision, but it appears Haley or Ramaswamy could threaten Trump for the Republican nomination.

Favorites to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

It had been a wild ride since the first debate between Biden and Trump, and that very much includes the odds at our best sportsbooks. And now Trump has recently lost a little bit of ground while going from -200 to around -175, though he's still comfortably leading.

Trump is mostly staying stagnant while the Kamala Harris odds keep shortening. She's gone from around +175 recently to now sit as short as +135 through BetVictor.

It's returned to being a two-candidate race, though the Michelle Obama odds still sit laughably high on the board, even after she was on the call when her husband endorsed Harris.

She's never been a candidate or held any interest whatsoever in the job. Her high odds previously were a product of the lack of energy surrounding Biden, and Republican-based rumors.

Donald Trump's odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Trump has been the front-runner for months. He hit a roadblock for a bit but has been gradually rebounding for a while now, and the challenger benefitted from a sudden fundraising push after his hush-money trial conviction. That decision is now in doubt too after the Supreme Court ruled that he maintains absolute immunity as a former president.

The challenger began soaring even more after the first debate against Biden on June 27 when the president imploded, and then again following the attempted shooting.

But he then gave a speech during the Republican National Convention that may have done more dividing than unifying with the political temperature in the country sizzling. With that possibly a factor, Trump has maintained his status has a heavy favorite, but he's been stagnating. And now his campaign needs to quickly pivot in a way no opposing team has in American election history while dealing with a new opponent this late in the process.

Trump may be wildly popular within his own party. But nationally his approval rating sits at just 38.6%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Best odds: -175 via bet365 | Implied probability: 63.65%

Kamala Harris' odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election

Harris unofficially sealed up the Democratic nomination, with only the formality of the delegate roll call remaining. Usually that would happen during the convention, but everything needs to move at warp speed during this bizarre campaign.

That includes naming her running mate, and the U.S. presidential election Democratic VP nominee odds show a tight race at the top between Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro.

New polling from the New York times and Siena College also shows a near dead heat between Harris and Trump, with the former president up one percentage point, according to Politico.

A winning bet through our best sports betting sites at +150 would return a profit of $25 on a $10 wager.

Best odds: +150 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.0%

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Presidential election odds: Non-political candidates

The 2024 election could feature the most prominent third-party candidate in 32 years. Robert Kennedy Jr. holds a legitimate chance to steal votes from each major party candidate and make a serious impact, which both Trump and Biden have acknowledged.

His main role will be that of disruptor and vote-splitter though, as Kennedy's odds remain lengthy.

(non-political candidates odds via BetMGM, last updated July 26)

2024 president prediction

A new look could lead to renewed hope for the Democrats. Gone is the candidate who seemed to be fading quickly with age, and in comes one potentially in Harris who's more untested on the national scene, and therefore could have room to grow.

But even if Democrats are feeling a touch of optimism for the first time in a long, long time, there's still a stark contrast between a party forced to find a new candidate in late July, and the raucous celebration atmosphere we witnessed during the Republican National Convention.

The Republican party is heavily unified, and that includes former Trump opponents like Nikki Haley who spoke at the convention in support. The party also now boasts a vice presidential candidate in JD Vance who's from Ohio and can work to firm up support in the key rust belt swing states.

Uncertainty remains the overall theme of a truly unique election cycle that's now gone through courtroom haggling involving Trump, and an incumbent in Biden dropping out. That vibe will continue, as it's difficult to forecast how the late Democratic shakeup will affect the electorate.

However, combine the Democratic party's issues with Trump being well-positioned on the map - and by the presidential odds by state - to again earn an electoral college win even if he loses the popular vote, and it feels increasingly likely that Trump wins the 2024 presidency.

Winning party odds

(winning party odds updated July 26 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

U.S. presidential election winners

Trump was the first candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win an election as the underdog. Trump was the heavy dog to Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Carter was a small dog to incumbent Gerald Ford in ‘76. Trump’s win is the clear outlier based on recent data, and going back as far as 1872, Trump was the second-biggest underdog to win a presidential election, behind only Harry Truman’s improbable defeat of Thomas Dewey in 1948 at +1500 odds.

Odds among the top candidates will move frequently until the election in November, but bettors should keep in mind that the favorite has won in 25 of the last 30 presidential elections.

Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?

Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".

Most books currently offer odds for only the presidential election winner and the winning party, but some offer additional prop markets. Expect to see more markets open over the coming months as the campaign trails truly heat up.

U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?

Former president Donald Trump remains the betting favorite with odds of -175 to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, representing an implied probability of 63.64%.

Who won the last U.S. presidential election?

Joe Biden became the 46th President of the United States after defeating incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.

When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

The 2024 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2024. Ultimately, voters will decide who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will be covering the results of the 2024 United States presidential election.

2024 presidential election betting odds pages

Here are our best political betting sites:

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