Donald Trump 2024 Odds to Win Next U.S. Presidential Election: Trump Even With Harris
The 2024 U.S. presidential election odds have finally moved back in Donald Trump's favor.
The former president fell behind Democratic nominee Kamala Harris at our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) around 10 days ago. But the Kamala Harris odds dropped Tuesday morning while Trump's rose, putting both candidates back to level in the aftermath Tuesday's vice presidential debate between Democratic running mate Tim Walz and Republican counterpart JD Vance.
Still, with election day now less than five weeks away, Trump and his team will need to figure out how to stem the tide indicated through recent polling, which suggests that Harris has gained the upper hand in the majority of battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania
Overall, the Donald Trump odds show a once-dominant candidate who's now in a dead heat with his Democratic counterpart. However, some swing state polling is encouraging for him, and it could lead to an odds shift at our best Ontario sports betting sites.
Donald Trump presidential election odds 2024
(Donald Trump odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada. U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit the social sportsbook BetRivers.net, which is available in most U.S. states | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Candidate | bet365 | BetMGM | Sports Interaction | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Donald Trump | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| JD Vance | +6600 ❄️ | +10000 | +10000 | +8000 |
| Michelle Obama | +10000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 |
| Nikki Haley | +12500 ❄️ | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | +30000 | +30000 | +20000 |
| Tim Walz | +15000 ❄️ | +20000 | +20000 | OFF |
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- A group of Haitian immigrants have filed criminal charges against Trump and his running mate JD Vance, according to The Guardian. The charges include disrupting public service, making false claims, and committing telecommunications harassment. This comes after Trump claimed during the debate that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio have been eating pets.
- Trump has already nixed a second debate, which was originally scheduled for sometime in October. The Vice Presidential clash between JD Vance and Tim Walz will still go ahead on Oct. 1.
- The Republican candidate was the subject of another attempted assassination, though this time authorities spotted and shot at his would-be attacker before apprehending him. Ryan Wesley Routh was sitting along the tree line at Trump's West Palm Beach golf course with a rifle.
- Trump was safe and not harmed, and later he took to social media to blame Harris and Joe biden, according to NBC News. He said the two are taking "politics in our country to a whole new level of hatred." Both Biden and Harris regularly condemn all political violence, including both incidents tied to Trump.
Donald Trump fast facts
| Date of birth | June 14, 1946 |
| Place of birth | New York City, NY |
| Residence | Mar-a-Lago, FL |
| Political affiliation | Republican Party |
| Net worth | $2.5 billion USD |
| Education | New York Military Academy (1959-1964); Fordham University (1964-66); Wharton School (1966-68) |
| Spouse | Melania Trump (2005-present) |
Donald Trump presidential election odds 2024 analysis
It still seems like forever ago when Trump was listed at -300 or shorter through our Ontario sports betting sites.
That was at the peak of his status as the overwhelming favorite prior to Joe Biden dropping out. His high perch atop oddsboards and polls led to a raucous party atmosphere at the Republican National Convention, which came with a combination of raw emotion days after the attempt on Trump's life in Butler, Pa.
But those days are far gone now. Trump and Harris have gone back and forth in the odds from our best sports betting sites in Canada, and that will surely continue during a tight race. However, the theme of Harris gaining or regaining the edge continues.
Trump's meandering, which included pushing bizarre and baseless online rumors tied to the treatment of animals in Springfield, Ohio, contributed to him falling from being a favorite as short as -137 entering the proceedings to now sitting at -110 with Harris. The other top Ontario sports betting apps followed bet365's lead Tuesday and moved Trump even with Harris.
The current vice president is being listed at -110 across the board. A recent NBC News poll is also in her favor, as it shows Harris with a five-point lead nationally.
That comes after Daniel Dale of CNN, one of the most well-established fact-checkers, said that even by his standards Trump was "staggeringly dishonest" during the debate, and that many of his claims were "untethered to reality."
Dale counted 33 false claims, which sailed past the Over/Under of 21.5 that Sports Interaction set with its debate props.
Meanwhile, Harris both attacked when the time was right and led him off his talking points effectively at other key moments.
Trump's debate loss was reflected in overnight polling, with 43% of respondents in a YouGov poll saying Harris won compared to just 28% for Trump, and 30% undecided, via The Hill. A CNN flash poll was even more slanted toward Harris, with 63% saying she triumphed.
The race remains a tossup, though Trump still trails Harris by 3.3% in the national average, according to Nate Silver. Trump maintains a lead in several battleground states though, including a four-point advantage in Georgia and a five-point edge in Arizona, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, via USA Today.
But while the race in general and in swing states is incredibly close, perhaps the most damaging poll for Trump is coming from a state he'll likely still win.
Iowa had previously been a battleground state too. But the Republicans carried it handily during the last two elections, recording a 9.5-point win in 2016 and an 8.2-point victory in 2020, with both elections under Trump.
Now a recent poll from the Des Moines Register shows that gap is down to just 4%. More stunningly, it's a state where Trump held an 18-point lead over Biden not long ago.
(It's worth noting that Silver still gives Trump an 86.5% chance at winning the state.)
The concern for the Trump campaign – that a fresh face would lead to a rejuvenated rival – appears to have become a reality. Combine that with the Republicans needing to switch gears so abruptly this late in the process and focus on Harris, and the struggle continues.
Trump's running mate JD Vance landing with a thud while talking about cat ladies isn't helping matters. His favorability rating sits at just 34.6%.
The other issue for Trump has been constant, regardless of who's running against him. Trump may hold a firm grip on the Republican party, and that base is growing. But every presidential candidate needs support from beyond the base to win an election, and the strength of that is debatable at best for Trump.
Similar to Vance, his unfavorability rating isn't encouraging while at 52.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Donald Trump presidential election odds 2024 FAQ
Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both sitting at -110, representing an implied win probability of 52.38%.
Who won the last U.S. presidential election?
Joe Biden assumed office as the 46th President of the United States following his victory over incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.
When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?
The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?
Candidates will campaign across various cities and states leading up to November 2024, culminating in voters casting their ballots at polling booths nationwide to determine the next President of the United States.
How to watch the U.S. presidential election
Every major news outlet will cover the 2024 United States presidential election extensively.
2024 presidential election betting odds pages
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