Michelle Obama Odds to Win U.S. Presidential Election 2024: Former First Lady Still Lurking With Biden Out
The Michelle Obama presidential odds first started to rise fast at our best Ontario sports betting sites earlier in 2024, with the former first lady taking up a residency near the top of oddsboards.
It was primarily a product of the public lacking confidence in an 81-year-old Joe Biden maintaining the mental fitness to do such a demanding job for four more years. Those concerns grew significantly after Biden's flop during the first debate against Donald Trump on June 27, and he's now not featured in the 2024 U.S. presidential election odds after making the long-anticipated decision to drop out.
Obama maintains her high spot at the best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) after that significant and historic development. She's risen again notably in the presidential odds following Biden's decision, despite not being engaged in the campaign in any meaningful way, and explicitly saying in early March through a spokesperson in her office that she won't be running, according to NBC News.
Obama is also still among the top choices to replace Biden in the Democratic presidential odds, though Kamala Harris remains the runaway favorite.
Michelle Obama presidential election odds 2024
(Michelle Obama presidential election odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada as of July 22. U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit social sportsbook BetRivers.net, which is available in most U.S. states | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Candidate | bet365 | BetMGM | Sports Interaction | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -200 | -200 | -200 | -200 |
| Kamala Harris | +200 | +200 | +200 | +188 ❄️ |
| Michelle Obama | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1600 🔥 |
| Hilary Clinton | +3300 ❄️ | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 🔥 |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | +3500 ❄️ | +5000 | +4000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 ❄️ |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 🔥 |
| JD Vance | +8000 🔥 | +7600 | +7600 | OFF |
| Josh Shapiro | +10000 🔥 | +8000 | +8000 | OFF |
| Wes Moore | +20000 🔥 | OFF | OFF | +10000 |
Michelle Obama presidential election odds 2024 analysis
Obama isn't running, seems to hold no interest in running, and Vice President Kamala Harris feels highly likely to be the pick to replace Biden.
That's reflected in the odds movement, with Harris catapulting to second at our Ontario sports betting sites after the debate while her odds shortened from about +4000 to now around +400. She then climbed even further after Biden stepped aside and now sits at +225, with Obama back in third at +1600.
But that's still a stunningly high perch given her complete lack of involvement in the campaign or remote interest in running. The Obama fantasy lives, though her position is more so a reflection of the lack of energy around the other top Democrats.
However, recent polling does show her even with Donald Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight, even though the latter is the easy general election favorite through the Donald Trump odds.
Michelle Obama Democratic presidential nominee odds 2024
(Michelle Obama presidential election odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada as of July 22 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)
| Candidate | bet365 | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -900 | 90.0% |
| Michelle Obama | +800 | 11.11% |
| Hillary Clinton | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Gavin Newsom | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 2.94% |
| Josh Shapiro | +6600 | 1.49% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +10000 | 0.99% |
| Seth Moulton | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Bernie Sanders | +15000 | 0.66% |
Michelle Obama Democratic presidential nominee odds analysis 2024
Biden was always a deeply flawed candidate. That led to some, well, let's call it creative thinking regarding alternate options within the Democratic party.
Which is why Obama remains among the top Democratic choices by the odds, albeit while significantly trailing Harris. She's one of only two candidates listed below +2000, and Obama is far ahead of Hillary Clinton.
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It's fun to dream on Obama, especially for Democrats after an Ipsos poll in early July shortly after Biden's debate debacle showed the former First Lady a whopping 11 points ahead of Trump. Her popularity and name recognition alone would make Obama a compelling candidate.
Yet Obama has given no indication she wants to step forward. In fact, seasoned political strategists are doing the opposite.
That includes Republican strategist Karl Rove.
“No, no, look, look, she hates politics,” Rove said during a FOX Business segment. “You read her autobiography. She didn’t want her husband to run for the state senate. She didn’t want him to run for the presidency. She is not a political animal.”
Her name even being connected to the role at any point in a serious way was mostly rooted in Republican chatter, including a straw poll at CPAC. Texas senator Ted Cruz said in September that the "odds are very significant" Biden would be moved aside at the Democratic National Convention, with Obama replacing him.
David Axelrod, a CNN analyst and former Barack Obama campaign strategist, said he would be "floored" if Michelle ran.
Harris is miles ahead by the odds for a reason. She's the highly likely nominee for Democrats, especially while continuing to get key endorsements from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Gavin Newsom, and Gretchen Whitmer.
Michelle Obama presidential election odds 2024 FAQ
What are Michelle Obama's odds to win the 2024 presidential electon?
The best price currently offered on Michelle Obama is +1600 through BetVictor.
What are Michelle Obama's odds to win the Democratic nomination?
Obama is getting +800 odds to win the Democratic nomination from bet365.
Who is the favorite for the 2024 U.S. election?
Former president Trump is the favorite (-200) to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Who won the last U.S. presidential election?
Joe Biden assumed office as the 46th President of the United States following his victory over incumbent Donald J. Trump in the 2020 election.
When will the U.S. presidential election be decided?
The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
Where will the U.S. presidential election be decided?
Candidates will campaign across various cities and states leading up to November 2024, culminating in voters casting their ballots at polling booths nationwide to determine the next President of the United States.
How to watch the U.S. presidential election
Every major news outlet will cover the 2024 United States presidential election extensively.
2024 presidential election betting odds pages
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