Why CeeDee Lamb's Contract Holdout Could Spell Betting Value on Cowboys Receiver
CeeDee Lamb wants a new contract, and he reportedly won't show up to Dallas Cowboys training camp until he gets one.
The All-Pro wideout enters his fifth season among the NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds favorites for the Cowboys, who are also trading among the top teams by the latest Super Bowl odds. Yet he isn't expected to show up to Dallas' first practice Thursday as he seeks to become the NFL's highest-paid receiver.
Some may see that contract dispute as a reason to fade Lamb, who ranked in the top three in receptions (135), receiving yards (1,749), and touchdowns (12) last season.
I see it as a value opportunity across our best sports betting sites ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
Why is CeeDee Lamb holding out?
The reason for Lamb to skip Cowboys training camp is simple: he's arguably the best receiver in football, and he wants to be paid like it. He also doesn't seem to be taking too kindly to Cowboys owner Jerry Jones saying that he doesn't "have any urgency" to get a deal done with the team's top star.
The former first-round pick set franchise records with his NFL-best 135 catches along with 1,749 receiving yards, both of which ranked in the top 10 in league history. He also scored a touchdown in each of the team's final nine regular-season games - a stretch that saw the Cowboys finish 7-2 and clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Lamb is a pivotal piece to a team with clear Super Bowl ambitions. The fifth-year wideout is set to make nearly $18 million in the final season of his rookie deal before hitting free agency in 2025, though it seems highly unlikely he'll last that long without a new deal.
That's especially true considering the Cowboys' history of shelling out big contracts. Last year, guard Zack Martin missed summer practices before earning a sizable raise. Ezekiel Elliott famously held out in 2019 before Dallas made him the NFL's highest-paid rusher.
It's only a matter of time before Lamb earns his keep.
CeeDee Lamb career stats
| Season | Receptions (targets) | Receiving yards | Receiving touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 74 (111) | 935 | 5 |
| 2021 | 79 (120) | 1102 | 6 |
| 2022 | 107 (156) | 1359 | 9 |
| 2023 | 135 (181) | 1749 | 12 |
CeeDee Lamb odds for 2024 NFL season
Here's a look at Lamb's odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns across our best sportsbooks:
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most receiving yards | +650 | +750 | +600 | +750 | +700 |
| Most receiving TDs | +900 | +1100 | +800 | +450 | +1100 |
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How to bet on CeeDee Lamb in 2024
Let's assume, as many are, that Lamb and the Cowboys find common ground between now and Week 1. What could be in store for the star receiver in 2024?
Growth isn't always linear in the NFL, but it's worth noting that Lamb has seen his receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns all increase in each of his first four seasons. Some of that is a function of games played with the 17-game schedule, but his per-game and per-catch outputs are trending up, too.
CeeDee Lamb stat projections
Projections tend to be fairly conservative by nature, as they often represent a weighted average of all possible outcomes as opposed to one true projection. But even the computer models are bullish on Lamb's outlook in 2024.
| Projected receptions | Projected rec. yards | Projected touchdowns | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model A | 118 | 1,506 | 10 |
| Model B | 122 | 1,567 | 11 |
One trusted model has Lamb projected for roughly 118 receptions, 1,506 yards, and 10 touchdowns, while another has Lamb on track for more than 122 catches, 1,567 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Consider, too, that those numbers account for his average or median outcome, which always includes the possibility of missing time.
Lamb has missed just one game in his pro career, while fellow top wideouts Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson have all battled injuries in recent years. If Lamb does suit up for all 17 games, he'll have less competition than ever after Michael Gallup retired and pass-catching back Tony Pollard left in free agency.
It all adds up to a quintessential opportunity for Lamb to put together a career season in a contract year ... or, if he gets paid in the next few weeks, prove why he's worth such a monster deal.
Should you bet CeeDee Lamb to win NFL OPOY?
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year | +900 | +1000 | +1000 | +900 | +900 |
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For all that Lamb has done in his four years with the Cowboys, he's never finished higher than third in OPOY voting.
A receiver has won the award three of the last five years, but it's gone to a quarterback or running back in every other season since 1994. Last year, San Francisco 49ers star Christian McCaffrey won it by a considerable margin after leading the NFL in total yards (2,023) and touchdowns (21).
It's tough to compete with that type of volume from the league's top dual-threat backs, even if Lamb is setting records for pass-catchers while ranking among the best in the position over the last two seasons.
That's why I'm much more intrigued by Lamb's odds via bet365 to lead all receivers in receptions (+550) and touchdowns (+1100). Those prices imply a probability of 15.38% and 8.33%, respectively, that he'll pace the field even after ranking first last year in catches and finishing one score shy of the league lead.
Whether he signs a new deal next week, next month, or next offseason, Lamb is primed for a massive campaign in the most important season of his life.
Don't let his holdout scare you away from value in the betting market for arguably the best receiver in football.
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