College Football ATS Picks Week 9: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks went 2-1 on best bets last week (and 4-3 overall), including three outright wins from four total plays on underdogs (UCF, Boston College, and Syracuse all won straight up).

Given the success I had with underdogs last week, more creep into my college football predictions for Week 9, including why Florida Atlantic and Navy are catching too many points against North Texas and No. 23 Missouri, respectively.

College football picks against the spread: Week 9

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 9 based on the latest college football odds.

Picks submitted: Oct. 27 at 10:10 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.   

Best college football ATS picks

Florida Atlantic +13.5 (-107 via bet365) vs. North Texas

While special teams is often an overlooked aspect of a football game, it’s one of Florida Atlantic’s biggest strengths. The Owls have combined for four punt and kick return touchdowns, the most among FBS schools this year.

North Texas is one of two undefeated teams left in the American Conference, but it will have its hands full when it faces Owls wide receiver Easton Messer. Messer accounted for 30 points on five touchdowns last week, tying a single-game program record and setting the mark for the most against an FBS opponent. He ranks in the top 10 in the country in receptions and receiving yards per game, while quarterback Caden Veltkamp can keep the chains moving with the most completions per game of all FBS quarterbacks (26.8).

Play to: +12.5

Indiana -20.5 (-108 via BetMGM) vs. Minnesota

Minnesota likely remained a big underdog despite beating then-No. 15 Iowa last week, as oddsmakers view its four turnovers forced against the Hawkeyes unsustainable (Iowa had only committed three total turnovers entering the week). Iowa didn’t have the weapons in the passing game to challenge Minnesota’s secondary when ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate entering the week. But Hoosiers quarterback Josh Hoover entered last week with the most passing touchdowns (18) without an interception.

But this wager is largely predicated on Indiana’s defense limiting Minnesota to 10 or fewer points. It ranks second in the country in scoring defense (12.0 points per game allowed), and is fourth nationally in run defense (73.1 yards per game) and sacks (28).

Play to: -22.5

Arkansas +9.5 (-103 via bet365) vs. Missouri

Arkansas has been outscored by 22.7 points per game against three ranked opponents this year. But its latest game against a ranked team (then-No. 15 Tennessee) on Oct. 10 was a step in the right direction. In that seven-point loss, the Razorbacks were plus-two in turnover margin, had a more than four-minute time of possession advantage, and ran for almost four yards per carry against a stingy Volunteers defense.

Missouri’s offense ranks a poor 130th in Rush Success Rate. If Arkansas can continue to win the early downs and force the Tigers into obvious passing situations, that is a big advantage for a defense that leads the country in Passing Downs EPA Allowed.

Play to: +8.5