Rays vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: Game 1 World Series Odds, Betting Splits for Today
The top two teams from both the American and National League begin their quests for their franchise’s first ever World Series title as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the World Series tonight.
My Rays vs. Brewers prediction expects Milwaukee’s long layoff to catch up, while Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead. That means I expect another dominant performance from Drew Rasmussen, and I'm betting on a Rays slugger to go yard with the last of my MLB picks.
First pitch from American Family Field is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX), and the Brewers are -175 betting favorites. I look to build off of my 3-0 sweep of my ALCS Game 6 predictions that profited +3.53 units.
Rays vs. Brewers picks & odds: World Series Game 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Rays F5 ML | +165 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 1.65 units |
| Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs | +120 via bet365 | 1 unit to win 1.2 units |
| Yandy Diaz to hit a home run | +900 via bet365 | 0.25 units to win 2.25 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.53 units
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Rays vs. Brewers prediction & best bet
Rays F5 ML (+165)
Milwaukee is 4-0 at home this postseason while averaging 4.0 runs per game. But while its bullpen hasn’t allowed a single run, its starting pitchers have been hittable, with a collective 3.12 ERA.
Drew Rasmussen is on normal rest for the Rays while Jacob Misiorowski hasn’t pitched since Oct. 11. That will not be easy to overcome, especially after he turned in his two lowest whiff percentages of the season in his two playoff starts. Meanwhile, Rasmussen is the first pitcher in franchise history to log multiple starts of 7+ innings pitched and allow one run or fewer in a single postseason.
📡 SBR Edge: Too much rest for Milwaukee?
The Brewers are the 21st team to enter the World Series with five-plus days off (the previous 20 went just 10-10). In addition, of the three teams to sweep an LCS since 2019, two had their World Series wins pushed to a seventh game, so I don't expect the usual dominance from Milwaukee right away.
Best Rays vs. Brewers player prop bet
Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs (+120)
In 15 starts since the All-Star Break (including playoffs), the righty is 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA over 93.2 innings. He has limited opponents to a .184 average and a .474 OPS in that span.
Rasmussen’s elite changeup is a major reason for his sustained success. Through August, he used his changeup 16.7% of the time against left-handed hitters and 22.3% of the time in two-strike counts. But in Game 5 of the ALCS, he used it 33.8% of the time and 44.8% with two strikes, his highest overall usage and second-highest two-strike usage in a start this season.
That is significant because opponents are batting .158 (18-for-114) against his changeup this year. He has thrown 421 changeups without allowing an extra-base hit (the most-thrown pitch in the Majors with zero extra-base hits allowed), and opponents have struck out 39 times on the pitch, with a 35.2% whiff rate overall.
Rays vs. Brewers home run prediction
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+900)
Yandy Diaz sealed the ALCS Game 6 victory with an eighth-inning home run, his fourth career postseason home run. That tied him for the sixth-most in franchise history. Overall, he belted two home runs in the ALCS, with six extra-base hits and four RBI.
I love the experience that Diaz brings into this game, as he is the last remaining player on the team’s 2020 roster that lost the World Series. He is one of 7 players with a 110 OPS+ or better in each of the last nine seasons. And while he should face a bevy of fastballs from Misiorowski, his .543 slugging percentage against non-fastballs is the third-highest of 2026 (incl. playoffs, min. 750 pitches faced).
Live Rays vs. Brewers odds
Rays vs. Brewers injuries
How to watch Rays vs. Brewers: World Series Game 1
- Date: Friday, Oct. 23, 2026
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
- TV: FOX
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (Postseason: 2-0, 1.29 ERA)
- Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (Postseason: 0-0, 3.24 ERA)
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