Fire vs. Mercury Prediction: WNBA Picks for Sunday, Aug. 16
My Fire vs. Mercury prediction likes the Under in a game featuring two teams with no WNBA championship odds aspirations.
Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite in a battle between two non-playoff teams. Tipoff is 7 p.m. ET on Sunday at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on ESPN.
🏀 Fire vs. Mercury prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury -5.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.47u | Phoenix is back home and playing with four days of rest. |
| Under 176.5 (-104 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.96u | The total closed at 159.5 the last time these two teams faced off. |
| Bridget Carleton Under 18.5 points + assists (-107 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.93u | Bridget Carleton has only cleared this line in 10 of her 33 games, recording six points and two assists in her last contest vs. Phoenix. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.36 units
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🏆 Who will win Fire vs. Mercury?
For Sunday's nightcap, I project the Mercury to win by six points against the Fire. Phoenix will be without Kelsey Plum for the second straight game, but that shouldn't be as much of a problem against Portland. The Fire haven't beaten anyone other than the Seattle Storm and Toronto Tempo in a month.
Score prediction: Mercury 89, Fire 83
💰 Fire vs. Mercury prediction & best bet
Under 176.5 (-104)
The total for Sunday's matchup is trading as low as 175.5 at Caesars, whereas FanDuel offers -104 odds for Under 176.5. For comparison, the total closed at 159.5 the last time the Fire and Mercury faced off on June 5. Phoenix earned a 78-72 win, by the way.
Plum's absence has a larger impact on the Mercury's offense. They rank 12th in offensive rating this season, averaging 83.9 points per game. The Fire, meanwhile, are 10th in offensive rating and have averaged 86.7 points per contest.
Basically, all signs point toward this total dropping before tipoff.
🔥 Best Fire vs. Mercury player prop bet
Bridget Carleton Under 18.5 points + assists (-107)
Bridget Carleton was the top pick in this year's expansion draft, but there were legitimate concerns about her ability to lead an offense as the No. 1 option.
I'd say those concerns have been validated, despite the strong season. Carleton is averaging 14.6 points and 2.1 assists per game, but has generally succeeded in her spot-up role. Carleton has only cleared this combo line 10 times in her 33 games.
In her lone matchup against Phoenix, Carleton finished with six points and two assists. Those types of performances are always on the table, especially on a day where the total is inflated.
🚀 Fire vs. Mercury same-game parlay
The market has overrated Plum's absence, especially considering she hasn't been with the team for very long. We have a much larger sample size of who the Mercury are without Plum. I expect this to be a classic Mercury game, one that's dictated by their ability to defend the Fire. The odds for this parlay being just +326 suggest that it's a plausible game script.
💵 Fire vs. Mercury SGP picks
- Mercury -5.5 (-118)
- Under 176.5 (-104)
- Bridget Carleton Under 18.5 points + assists (-110)
Best odds: +326 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.32u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 102-111 | +17.67 units ✅ | 12% ✅ |
| Player props | 35-22 | +10.21 units ✅ | 18.4% ✅ |
| Parlays | 8-43 | -1.49 units ❌ | -29.3% ❌ |
📊 Live Fire vs. Mercury odds
📺 How to watch Fire vs. Mercury
- Date: Sunday, Aug. 16
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Disney+
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