MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, August 16
Three of my home run predictions today come from players that have either been red-hot at the plate of late, or have outstanding career numbers against today’s opponent.
In the short history of the Tampa Bay Rays, few opposing sluggers have put up better numbers against them than Gunnar Henderson. I also back Miguel Vargas and Fernando Tatis Jr. to homer (as each did on Friday night) amid torrid stretches at the plate. The last of my MLB home run picks focuses on Francisco Lindor, who would make Mets history with a long ball this afternoon.
Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 16
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+425 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.06u | Lindor needs one homer to tie for sixth-most in Mets franchise history |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.25u | Only one batter has a higher career slugging percentage vs. Tampa Bay than Henderson (min. 200 PA) |
| Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Vargas entered the weekend tied for the second-most homers in the AL since July 26 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+441 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.10u | Tatis Jr.’s numbers are up considerably across the board since the All-Star Break |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.6 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Francisco Lindor (+425)
Francisco Lindor hit his 153rd career home run with the Mets on Friday. Now he’s one shy of tying Dave Kingman for the sixth-most in franchise history.
Lindor has had great career success against Jake Irvin, slashing .348/.348/.739 in 23 at-bats. Five of Lindor’s eight hits off Irvin are extra-base hits, including two homers.
Irvin has allowed four home runs over his last three starts, and at least one homer in six of seven. He has also allowed seven of his 11 home runs to lefties, and pitched to a 7.90 ERA over the last month.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited
📡 SBR Edge: A thorn in Washington’s side
Washington is one of three opponents that Francisco Lindor has hit 20-plus home runs against, and one of two from the NL.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Gunnar Henderson (+500)
With a 4-for-4 game and a 400-foot home run on Friday, Gunnar Henderson guaranteed himself a third career 20-homer season, and first since belting a career-high 37 long balls in 2024. That performance included another extra-base hit and brought his career slugging percentage to .617 against the Rays. That’s the second-highest against the division rival of any batter with a minimum of 200 plate appearances.
Henderson looks to add to those eye-popping numbers against the struggling Freddy Peralta. Despite throwing seven innings in his Rays debut, Peralta still has a 5.37 ERA, which was the second-most among qualified starters. The righty is on pace for a negative WAR and a 1.5 HR/9 rate or worse for the second time in his career.
- Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+475)
After logging his third multi-home run game of the season on Friday, Miguel Vargas entered the weekend with six home runs and 10 RBI in his last 17 games. That home run total was tied for the second most in the AL over that span (since July 26).
Vargas may see a different Tigers pitcher in most of his at-bats, with Detroit going with a bullpen game of sorts. Starting pitcher Drew Anderson is somewhat stretched out as a converted reliever, as he recorded 12-plus outs for the third time this year. But Anderson is also vulnerable to the long ball, and has reverse splits with a slugging percentage and OPS allowed that’s 105 and 151 points worse, respectively, against right-handed batters.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+441)
Fernando Tatis Jr. entered the weekend having hit five home runs and driving in seven runs in his last nine games. Those five home runs matched his total from the previous 35 games.
In 95 games prior to the All-Star Break, Tatis Jr. hit five homers in 416 plate appearances, while slugging .374. In the first 26 games after the All-Star Break, Tatis Jr. had already hit eight homers in 117 plate appearances, while driving in 21 runs, and recording a .402 on-base percentage and .616 slugging percentage.
Tatis Jr. has a great chance to go deep off Tanner Bibee, who ranks in the bottom fourth of the league in ground ball rate, and allowed three homers in his last start at Progressive Field.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+425)Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+500)Miguel Vargas to hit a home run (+475)Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+425)Best odds: +94991 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 95.0u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 229-366-1 | +48.98 units ✅ | +13.2% ✅ |
| Game picks | 89-68-1 | +13.91 units ✅ | +7.9% ✅ |
| Player props | 140-298 | +35.07 units ✅ | +16.4% ✅ |
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