Orioles vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Aug. 16

The Baltimore Orioles will look to post a road sweep against the top-ranked team in the American League when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays in this series finale early Sunday afternoon. Every win matters for the Orioles, who are currently in a four-way tie for the final Wild Card seed. It's Trevor Rogers vs. Freddy Peralta in today's A.L. East tilt.

My Orioles vs. Rays prediction includes a run line, two player props, and an SGP. Lock in my latest MLB picks before streaming the first pitch at 12:15 p.m. ET on Peacock. Today's game will be played at Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.), with oddsmakers backing the Rays to avoid being swept at home, laying -149 odds on their moneyline. 

⚾ Orioles vs. Rays picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; 

Total wagered: 4.49 units | Max profit: 4.39 units

🏆 Who will win Orioles vs. Rays?

Freddy Peralta is due to lose a game for the Rays. Since being acquired from the Mets at the trade deadline, Peralta has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs, bailed out by the Rays' lineup. Trevor Rogers has been stout down the stretch for Baltimore, holding four of the past five lineups he's faced to 2 earned runs or less. Ultimately, the Orioles lose this matchup 5-4 in extra innings. 

Score prediction: Rays 5, Orioles 4

💰 Orioles vs. Rays prediction & best bet

Orioles +1.5 (-175)

Baltimore is currently in win-now mode, while the Rays sit comfortably atop the American League. There's definitely more urgency with the Orioles, who also hold a pitching edge with Trevor Rogers on the mound.

Rogers ranks 82nd in chase rate (33.9) and 76th percentile for walk rate (6.8) in 2026. He doesn't put a lot of traffic on base, which is why he's sitting in the 58th percentile for pitching run value (4) this season. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta's pitching run value is -14 (6th percentile) for the Rays. 

Head to DraftKings and lay the juice with the Orioles +1.5 at -175 odds. 

🔥 Best Orioles vs. Rays player prop bet

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-112)

After a bit of a slow start to his Orioles tenure, Pete Alonso has been red-hot at the plate lately. Alonso carries a seven-game hit streak into today's matchup against the Rays. 

Even more impressive is that five one of these seven starts from Alonso have resulted in multiple hits. As a result, Alonso has cashed Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in six consecutive games for the Orioles.

Peralta is struggling on the mound in 2026. He's ranked sixth in pitching run value (-14) and 11th in fastball run value (-7) this year. Alonso is a matchup nightmare for Peralta, ranked in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.540), hard-hit percentage (56.4), and avg exit velo at a blistering 94.2 mph. 

Bet on Pete Alonso's Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs prop at -112 odds on DraftKings. 

💣 Orioles vs. Rays home run prediction

Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+500)

Gunnar Henderson enters this game with momentum on his side, mashing two home runs across his last four starts. The Orioles SS ranks in the 73rd percentile for hard-hit percentage (45.3) and 74th percentile for bat speed (74.4) this season. 

While Tropicana Field is known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Henderson has logged five hits in this series. He's also in a prime matchup against Peralta, who we've already highlighted as a liability on the mound.

Peralta has allowed three home runs in two starts since being traded to the Rays. He's also sitting in the 47th percentile for hard-hit percentage (38.8) and gives up 94.2 mph on his fastball velo.  

Let's head to bet365 and bet on Gunnar Henderson's home run prop at +500 odds. 

🚀 Orioles vs. Rays same-game parlay

I'm all in on the Orioles' pitching edge with Trevor Rogers against Freddy Peralta. That's why I'm rolling out a two-leg SGP with Orioles First Three Innings +0.5 and Orioles First Five Innings +1.5. This yields +115 odds on FanDuel. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.

💡 How I'm betting Orioles vs. Rays: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I've increased my unit size for a couple of my four wagers in today's Orioles vs. Rays game. It starts with 2 units on the Orioles +1.5 run line to win 1.14 units. Then, it's a 2.24 unit play on Pete Alonso to finish Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs to win 2 units of profit.

A smaller 0.25 unit play on Gunnar Henderson's +500 home run prop returns 1.25 units of profit. Then, it's a 1 unit wager on an Orioles First Three Innings +0.5/Orioles First Five Innings +1.5 SGP at +115 odds. 

📊 Live Orioles vs. Rays odds

The Rays have moved from -148 to -140 since opening in moneyline betting markets. The run total has also increased from 7.5 to 8.0. 

77 percent of public money is on the Rays' moneyline, including 60 percent of run line wagers. 77 percent of total bets are on over 8.0 runs. 

📈 Orioles vs. Rays betting trends

🚑 Orioles vs. Rays injuries

📺 How to watch Orioles vs. Rays

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 16
• First pitch: 12:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Orioles starter: Trevor Rogers (7-8, 4.21 ERA)
• Rays starter: Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.33 ERA)