Cardinals vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, August 16

Edward Cabrera comes off the IL to make his first start for the Chicago Cubs since June 23, and is tasked with trying to lead the team to a series win over the rival St. Louis Cardinals. My Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction calls for Chicago to lead early given the value with its first five innings moneyline. Following Joshua Baez’s most impressive debut for any hitter in MLB history, I was compelled to back one of his player props, while Seiya Suzuki to homer rounds out my MLB picks.

Opposing Cabrera on the mound is Hunter Dobbins, and first pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). The Cubs are -160 betting favorites.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Cubs picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Cubs?

Chicago is 4-2 in its last six games against St. Louis, and it should have the advantage with this being the third time this season facing Hunter Dobbins.

Score prediction: Cubs 6, Cardinals 4

💰 Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Cubs first five innings ML (-158)

Most will expect rust from a pitcher making his first start in nearly two months. But Edward Cabrera shined in his latest rehab assignments, throwing five no-hit innings last week. And over his last two rehab outings, Cabrera pitched to a 15:1 K:BB ratio while allowing one unearned run over nine innings.

I am giving a pass to Cabrera for his 7.55 ERA over his final seven starts prior to landing on the IL, as those were marred by blister and leg issues. The Cubs won six of his first seven starts prior to injuries creeping in. 

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Cubs player prop bet

Joshua Baez Over 0.5 RBI (+180)

Joshua Baez cashed lottery types of tickets with his player props yesterday after becoming the first player in MLB history to homer three times in their debut. It started with Baez homering on the first pitch he ever saw from Matthew Boyd, and promptly delivered two more home runs in his next two at-bats, one to each field.

Baez entered June with the fourth-most home runs of any player in the minors. Thus, there was never a doubt about his potential for power, but it was his strikeout rate that was north of 30% that was keeping him from being called up.

Baez batted fifth in his debut, which is a prime RBI spot behind Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson. He is on pace for 14,930 RBI if he plays as many games as Barry Bonds, but I’ll settle for just one today. 

💣 Cardinals vs. Cubs home run prediction

Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+425)

Seiya Suzuki entered the weekend as one of two outfielders in the Majors with a batting average of at least .270 and both 70-plus RBI and an OPS of .830+. The other was teammate and NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong.  

Suzuki also entered yesterday leading MLB with 25 RBI since the All-Star Break. He has eight extra-base hits (including three home runs) in 50 August at-bats, and is on pace to finish his third separate month with at least a .300 batting average.

Hunter Dobbins has allowed three home runs in his last three starts, and a .469 slugging percentage or worse on two of his three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and sweeper).

🚀 Cardinals vs. Cubs same-game parlay

The Suzuki to record an RBI leg of this same-game parlay pairs nicely with helping Chicago build an early lead. I wanted to go a more conservative route with this play than backing him to homer, as Dobbins does rank in the 61st percentile in ground ball rate. Meanwhile, backing Baez to record a hit doesn’t necessarily contradict the Cubs play as much as my prior wager of the slugger to drive in a run would.

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Edward Cabrera threw 64 pitches in his latest rehab start, which followed pitch counts of 55 and 43 in his previous two outings. It is not reasonable to expect the team to ask much more of Cabrera in his first start off the IL, which is why I’m taking relievers out of the equation and expecting Chicago to simply lead after five innings.

Cabrera’s fastball touched 99 mph and averaged between 97 and 98 through his rehab assignments. That has me confident in bucking the trend of the Cardinals entering the weekend going 26-24 on the first five innings moneyline in their last 50 road games (+12.05 units/23% ROI).

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Cubs odds

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🚑 Cardinals vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Cubs

• Date: Sunday, August 16
• First pitch: 3 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Cardinals starter: Hunter Dobbins (2-3, 3.40 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Edward Cabrera (5-4, 5.10 ERA)