Mariners vs. Astros Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, August 16

Sunday’s series finale between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros feels like Seattle’s last chance to remain in contention for an AL West division title, as they begin the day five games back of the first-place Astros. My Mariners vs. Astros prediction backs Houston to widen that division lead, as Seattle’s stars like Cal Raleigh continue to struggle. I also make the case for Triple Crown threat Yordan Alvarez’s home run odds to be a great value play with the last of my MLB picks.

The starting pitching matchup is between Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown, and first pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET (NBC). The Astros are -135 betting favorites.

⚾ Mariners vs. Astros picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Astros?

Bryan Woo’s home and road splits are egregious, and his road struggles are a big reason why I expect Houston to win tonight’s series finale.

Score prediction: Astros 6, Mariners 4

💰 Mariners vs. Astros prediction & best bet

Astros ML (-129)

Seattle took a gut punch on Friday after squandering two two-run leads in the first and 10th innings.

Bryan Woo’s road struggles squashed any notion of him taking home Cy Young hardware this season. Woo is 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in 10 home starts, while pitching to a 0.75 WHIP and 69:11 K:BB ratio. But Woo is also 1-8 with a 6.22 ERA in 12 road starts, while logging a .292 OBA.

Seattle entered the weekend 10-22 since July 7. Only the Athletics had a worse record among all MLB teams in that span.

🔥 Best Mariners vs. Astros player prop bet

Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 hits (-125)

Cal Raleigh’s downgrade from a 60-home run slugger a year ago to one of the worst qualified hitters in the Majors with just 51 total hits on the season this year is perplexing. After Raleigh finished second in WAR among position players behind just Aaron Judge last season, the “Big Dumper’s” WAR this season is -0.5. In the process, his hard-hit rate dropped from 49.6% to 34.8%, and his strikeout rate is an astronomical 32.3%.

Raleigh has just two hits in his last 27 at-bats. To make matters worse, he has poor career numbers against Hunter Brown, going 3-for-18 (all singles) with six strikeouts. Meanwhile, Brown has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his last six starts.

💣 Mariners vs. Astros home run prediction

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+290)

This may be the obvious home run play considering Yordan Alvarez’ 36 homers lead the AL, but the Triple Crown threat hadn’t hit one since July 28 (spanning 65 plate appearances) prior to Friday’s series opener.

That 368-foot blast brought him within two of setting a new single-season high (he hit 37 in 2022). And Alvarez has long been a thorn in the Mariners’ side. Through 74 games against the division rival entering the weekend (including playoffs), he batted .315 with 21 home runs, 71 RBI, and a 1.029 OPS.

In just 3 ⅔ more innings on the road than at home, Woo has allowed nine of his 13 home runs in road starts, which raises Alvarez’ ceiling for a long ball tonight.

🚀 Mariners vs. Astros same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping the Astros win outright. Recent trends also support each of the two player props in this SGP. Raleigh is batting just .156 and has gone hitless in seven of his last nine games. And even though Alvarez had a recent long home run drought (by his standards), he went Over this hits/runs/RBI total in eight of his last 13 starts.

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Had I not been able to find Houston at better than -130 moneyline odds (the -129 odds at DraftKings carry a 56.33% implied probability), I likely would’ve looked to play its -1.5 run line odds for a plus-money payout. But as it is, these are great odds for an Astros team that has won seven of eight games against AL West opponents. 

All things considered, I wouldn’t put anyone off Houston’s -1.5 run line odds (+160 is the best price at FanDuel), as it has covered the run line in 29 of 50 games (+10.75 units/17% ROI). Meanwhile, Seattle’s team total Under has cashed in 31 of its last 50.

📊 Live Mariners vs. Astros odds

📈 Mariners vs. Astros betting trends

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📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Astros

• Date: Sunday, August 16
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mariners starter: Bryan Woo (8-8, 4.18 ERA)