Belgian Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
Despite suffering more car trouble at the British Grand Prix, Kimi Antonelli enters the Belgian Grand Prix as the betting favorite. And he features heavily in my Belgian Grand Prix predictions, along with Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris.
Antonelli is searching for his first win in four races, Hamilton is the in-form driver on the circuit, and Norris has a 10-place penalty to try to overcome. Sunday's race starts at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
📊 Belgian Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Belgian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +120 | 45.45% | $12 |
| George Russell | +275 | 26.67% | $27.50 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Charles Leclerc | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Max Verstappen | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Lando Norris | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Isack Hadjar | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
All other drivers are trading at +25000 or longer.
💰 Belgian Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds before the practice sessions and qualifying.
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes (+120) | 1u -> 1.2u | Due for a win, Antonelli will be a formidable threat if his car cooperates |
| Lando Norris top 6 (-138) | 1u -> 0.72u | Norris has the speed to make up four places after his grid penalty |
| Lewis Hamilton to finish in top 3 (-111) | 1u -> 0.90u | Hamilton has been among top three in four of last 5 races |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.82 units
🏆 Pick to win Belgian Grand Prix: Kimi Antonelli
I feel luck is about to turn back in Antonelli's favor, with recent car troubles hampering his campaign as they did George Russell's previously.
While the W17, with its superior power, has the advantage on Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps' long straightaways, it has been inconsistent.
Antonelli finished 16th and 15th in two of the previous three races. Those poor results are not due to anything he did wrong, but to mechanical failure. After winning the Sprint race and securing pole position at the British GP, he suffered a front-left wheel shield failure on Lap 41 while closing in on race leader Charles Leclerc.
If his car cooperates, I expect Antonelli to win for the first time in four races.
👊 Lando Norris top 6
Lando Norris will face a 10-place grid penalty at the Belgian GP after exceeding the allotted power unit allocation. McLaren says it's a necessary step to help ensure the car can finish the race efficiently.
Because of Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps' long straightaways and the abundance of passing opportunities it presents, McLaren feels like it's the best race to overcome the penalty.
And I agree. Excluding races in which he faced catastrophic car issues, Norris finished among the top five in five of six events. He should have enough speed and power to offset the grid penalty in Belgium.
And the car's power reinforcement should prevent the same issues from recurring.
🏎️ Lewis Hamilton to finish in top 3
Hamilton's exquisite run continued at the British Grand Prix. Despite not finishing on top of the pile, Hamilton secured third place, his fourth podium finish in the previous five races.
As I discussed in my Belgian GP odds and favorites, Ferrari's SF-26 is more efficient and aerodynamic than Mercedes' W17, enabling better energy conservation. That will be a critical factor in a race where so many long straightaways play havoc on a car's battery recharge cycle.
That, combined with Ferrari's advantage out of the starting gate, will be more than enough for Hamilton to finish among the top three again.
💡 How I'm betting the Belgian Grand Prix
I'm opting for three very different bets, hoping to capitalize on Ferrari and Mercedes' apparent advantages entering the race. Mercedes' power and Ferrari's efficiency should put the two favorites in a solid position.
Hamilton is racing well, and Antonelli has been unlucky recently.
By starting 10 places lower than he ordinarily would, Norris will have something to prove. And Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps is conducive to overtaking. I feel confident enough to invest one unit in each wager.
🏆 Past Belgian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2019 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2018 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Belgian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, July 17 @ 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, July 17 @ 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, July 18 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, July 18 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, July 19 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Belgian Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, July 19
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps (Stavelot, Belgium)
- How to watch: ESPN
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