🏇 Belmont Stakes Picks & Predictions 2026: Chief Wallabee to Win it All

Renegade was made the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the 158th Belmont Stakes following his Kentucky Derby runner-up showing, but our Belmont Stakes picks and predictions point to another Kentucky Derby alum to win the final jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.

The Belmont Stakes gates open at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.,  on Saturday as the 13th race on a 14-race card that features six Grade 1 stakes races. The upstate New York track plays host to the Belmont Stakes for the third and final time, sending its contenders 1 1/4 miles instead of the customary 1 1/2 miles. Next year, the race returns to its traditional Belmont Park home.

FOX, FS1 and FS2 bring you 10 hours of coverage on its three stations, starting at 10:30 a.m. ET. 

📈 Belmont Stakes 2026 expert picks 

Odds from FanDuel Racing on June 5; subject to change.

💰 Belmont Stakes 2026 predictions

🥇 Chief Wallabee, 3-1 to win

• Key stat: Finished a game fourth at 7.31-1 in the Kentucky Derby
• Why he can win: You’re looking at the morning-line odds and trying to figure out why the fourth-place horse in the Derby has lower odds than the winner (Golden Tempo)? Well, this son of Constitution was in position to win the Derby had he not been knocked off-stride by Ocelli in deep stretch. That gave Chief Wallabee the foundation he needed to fully unleash his stalking running style, defined tactical speed and stamina-rich pedigree on this field. Simply put, he has what it takes to win this race. That’s why.
• Best bet: Bet him to win and put him atop and in the 2 and 3 slot on all of your exotic tickets.

⭐ Renegade, 2-1 to place

• Key stat: Derby runner-up hasn’t finished outside the exacta in his last five starts
• Why he can win: Well, for starters, he’s the best, most consistent horse in the field. The best, most consistent horse with the best Belmont trainer (Todd Pletcher). And have we mentioned Pletcher’s horses hit the Belmont board nearly 41% of the time? There’s just that pesky Saratoga/Belmont bias against deep closers that keeps us from putting him atop all our tickets. The last Derby runner-up to win the Belmont was Empire Maker in 2003. But Renegade virtually has it made to finish in the money. 
• Best bet: Belongs on all your tickets, especially in the 2 and 3 slot on exactas and trifectas.

🏆 Commandment, 6-1 to show

• Key stat: Winner of five races at five different distances and margins ranging from a nose to 6 ¾ lengths.
• Why he can win: Admit it. You forgot about our Derby favorite after he finished a troubled seventh in the Derby–courtesy of the same bumping from a drifting Ocelli that spoiled Chief Wallabee’s victory hopes. We haven’t forgotten–for good reason. We remember Commandment checks the boxes of a Belmont winner: tactical speed, stalking running style, pedigree (Into Mischief) and never-quit attitude. Oh, and you’re getting all of that at 6-1. Sign us up, please.
• Best bet: Don’t be afraid to bet him to win and don’t leave him out of your exactas and trifectas, especially at or near this price.

🎯 Belmont Stakes 2026 long shot to watch

History proves that a long shot often finds the board in the Belmont Stakes. Here is our favorite sleeper value.

💵 Growth Equity, 12-1

With only nine horses and two being no-hopers (Vitruvian Man and Ottinho), this Belmont Stakes is light on true sleepers. But we keep coming back to the fact that 11 of the 26 Belmont Stakes winners this century went off at double-digit odds and, well, that keeps leading us back to this Nyquist progeny who could light up the toteboard. 

We’ve chronicled Growth Equity’s pros in my Belmont Stakes long shots and sleep picks article. His tactical speed, stalking running style, and upwardly mobile speed figures are appropriate to his name. There’s plenty of growth equity in Growth Equity’s progress to date on the speed front. And there’s plenty of freshness from a horse who captured one of the key Belmont Stakes preps: the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct on May 9.

Alas, we’ve also chronicled the cons: the weak fields he’s beaten up on, the fact Growth Equity beat only seven horses in his last two races, and the fact he hasn’t run against anyone near the caliber he’ll see Saturday. But there’s plenty of growth equity in betting Growth Equity across the board or on the lower tiers of your vertical exotics. 

🏇 Latest Belmont Stakes odds 2026

Here's a look at the updated post position list and odds from FanDuel Racing for the 2026 Belmont Stakes:

📺 How to watch the Belmont Stakes

• When: Saturday, June 6
• Post time: 7:04 p.m. ET
• Where: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
• How to watch: FOX/FS1/FS2

🧠 Belmont Stakes betting strategies

What to know for betting the Belmont Stakes

• Again, Saratoga is known as a speed-favoring track, one that rewards pace-pressers and stalkers (horses who park themselves one to four lengths off the lead). And the Belmont Stakes is known as a race favoring those running styles. This is one reason we like Chief Wallabee, a stalker.
• Here’s another. Handicapper Noel Michaels broke down the 39 1 ¼-mile races run at Saratoga since 2000. He found that stalkers won 19 of the 39 races–a 49% win rate. This bodes very well for not only Chief Wallabee, but Commandment, Emerging Market and our sleeper–Growth Equity. All four are stalkers, while Emerging Market is a hybrid presser/stalker.
• But wait. There’s more. Regardless of the venue, seven of the last 10 Belmont Stakes winners were won by horses who were within 4 ½ lengths of the lead after the first half-mile.
• Here’s why we mention “tactical speed.” Not counting the 1 ⅛-mile pandemic Belmont Stakes of 2020, every winning horse going back to Union Rags in 2012 was either on the lead or within 3 ½ lengths at the mile mark. 
• What about Renegade and Golden Tempo, you ask? We answer by telling you only two Belmont winners in the last 20 years: Jazil in 2006 and Creator in 2016, were 10 lengths or further back at any call. Only three of the last 10: Creator, Sir Winston in 2019 and Essential Quality in 2021, came from further back than three lengths. And Michaels notes closers coming from four or more lengths back are 5-for-39 going 10 furlongs at Saratoga. 

Belmont Stakes trends and stats

• It’s a good place to start on any race, but especially here. The best way to zero in on your ticket choices is by eliminating any horses who don’t have a graded stakes victory on their CV. This is as dominant a Belmont Stakes trend as you’ll find, considering 11 of the last 12 and 12 of the last 14 Belmont winners checked this box. Take it out further and we find 17 of the last 25 winners own a graded stakes score. 
• Over the 157-year history of the Belmont Stakes, favorites came home 66 times. That’s a strong 42% win rate. But there is a pronounced bias against favorites, not only in the Belmont Stakes, but at Saratoga, where favorites are 0-for-2. They’re 4-for-their-last-10, 5-for-their-last-15 and have won seven times this century. Take out Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify and 17 of the last 21 favorites failed to run to their odds.
• According to Xpressbet, the average winning odds over the last 20 years is 9.53-1.
• On the exotics front, favorites may not win, but they have a habit of hitting the board. Nine of the last 10 favorites finished in-the-money, which depresses value and shrinks those monster payouts you chase in Triple Crown races. Seven out of the last nine $2 Belmont Stakes exactas have paid $96 or less, lowlighted by last year’s $13.20 chalkfest of Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza – none of whom went off at greater than 7-2. The $1 trifecta has paid $312 or less in seven of the last nine years, again, lowlighted by last year’s $13.80 payout that wouldn’t buy you a meal at your favorite fast-food spot.
• How much does post position matter? Well, at Saratoga, it matters more, because of that speed bias. Michaels found that horses starting from the inside three posts captured 20 of the 39 Saratoga 10-furlong races. So 30-1 Vitruvian Man (Post 1, the starting gate for 24 winners since 1905), 12-1 Powershift (Post 2) and our choice, Chief Wallabee (Post 3), have that going for them. Posts 4-6, where we find Renegade, Ottinho and Growth Equity, respectively, won 13 races (33%). Outside Post 7? Only six wins (15%).
• Finally, who’s your daddy matters here as much as any race. You want bloodlines that scream stamina because 15 of the last 17 and 22 of the last 26 Belmont winners came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of 1 1/8 miles or farther. Again, as in the last two events, the cutback from 1 ½ miles to 1 ¼ may factor here. 

🎟️ How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Belmont Stakes picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.
• Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy

❓ Belmont Stakes FAQs

Who is the 2026 Belmont Stakes favorite?

Renegade (2-1) is the morning-line favorite.

How long is the Belmont Stakes track?

The race distance for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is 1 and 1/4 miles, or 10 furlongs.

When is the 2026 Belmont Stakes this year?

The 2026 edition of the Belmont Stakes will be held on Saturday, June 6.

Where is the 2026 Belmont Stakes held?

The Belmont Stakes is held this year at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.