🏇 Belmont Stakes AI Prediction & Picks 2026: Claude's Notes & Full Projected Simulation

Ahead of the third and final leg of the Triple Crown, I've once again turned to our trusty robot companion for our Belmont Stakes AI predictions to project the full finishing order for Saturday's race at Saratoga Race Course, which is set for approximately 7:04 p.m. ET over 1 1/4 miles.

A month ago, our Kentucky Derby AI predictions flagged Golden Tempo as a 30-1 long shot before he ran down the field on the final stretch to win the Run for the Roses. Our headline pick came up just short in the Preakness, but we're turning back to Claude - Anthropic's AI model known for advanced logic and reasoning skills - who is fading Golden Tempo as one of the Belmont favorites this weekend.

Here are our Belmont Stakes AI picks with full analysis on every horse in the race:

🤖 How we trained Claude for our Belmont Stakes AI predictions

In order to properly train Claude to execute these AI projections, I started by initializing the chat with a full scope of the project before training the model on a wealth of historical Belmont Stakes data and recent form for every horse in the field.

For this year's projection, Claude analyzed the field across six dimensions:

• Speed figures: Beyer, Equibase, and Brisnet ceilings, with weight on horses who fit the 1 1/4-mile trip
• Class & head-to-head form: Who has beaten whom on the Triple Crown trail, and by how much
• Pace projection: How each running style fits a race that lacks a clear pacesetter
• Post position: Trip implications from each gate at Saratoga's two-turn, 1 1/4-mile configuration
• Trainer & jockey patterns: Belmont and Saratoga records, including the Peter Pan-to-Belmont angle
• Value identification: Where the market price diverges from the analytical case

To be clear: these are AI projections, which should always be taken in context. I am not necessarily advising you or anyone to do anything with these projections. I've been training AI to make projections for major sporting events for years, and my standard is always that I will not publish AI predictions that I would not trust myself.

So, as I have all spring, I will be placing my own bets on the following picks at FanDuel Racing to close out the Triple Crown.

🏆 Claude's AI pick to win the Belmont Stakes

Claude's prediction: Chief Wallabee (No. 3)

Chief Wallabee (3-1) is the horse this race is built for. The last two Belmonts run at Saratoga's 1 1/4 miles were won by horses racing on or near the lead, and this year's field has no committed pacesetter beyond a lightly raced maiden winner — a problem for the two deep closers the market likes most, and an opening for a tactical stalker. Chief Wallabee fits that mold exactly. He carries a top Equibase Speed Figure of 99, ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby despite being knocked off stride when Ocelli ducked in near the eighth pole, and is making just his fifth career start, the least-exposed of the true contenders.

The connections seal it. Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado won this exact race a year ago with Sovereignty, who sat just off the pace at this same trip. Renegade did beat Chief Wallabee by about two and a half lengths in the Derby — but Chief Wallabee was the one knocked sideways when Ocelli ducked in, and both were closing into a comfortable Churchill pace that won't repeat at Saratoga. By Constitution out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare, he's bred for 1 1/4 miles, and from post 3 Alvarado can sit a few lengths off the speed and pounce where deep closers run out of room. At 3-1, he's priced like an afterthought to the two closers above him, and he's the one horse the track is set up to reward.

💰 Best Belmont Stakes long shot

Claude's best long shot: Growth Equity (No. 6)

Growth Equity (12-1) is the rare long shot whose running style fits the race better than the favorites'. He won the Peter Pan (G3) — the traditional local Belmont prep — by two lengths on May 9 with a stalking trip, and that Peter Pan-to-Belmont path produced Arcangelo in 2023 and Tonalist in 2015. His Equibase figures have climbed with every start, up to a 98, and unlike the closers above him in the market, he has the tactical speed to sit just off the lone pacesetter and inherit the lead turning for home — the exact trip that wins at Saratoga.

There's a real knock: he hasn't faced anyone close to this caliber, so the class question is fair. But Chad Brown saddles three runners here, and this is the one with the perfect setup, with Manny Franco staying aboard for a barn that knows how to win at the Spa. At 12-1, Growth Equity doesn't need a pace collapse or a wide-trip miracle; he just needs to break alertly and take the trip the race is handing him. That makes him the best value on the board beneath the top of the market.

🎟️ Best Belmont Stakes exotic picks

Beyond the win pick and long shot, three more horses warrant inclusion in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas based on Claude's analysis.

Renegade (No. 4, 2-1)

The most talented horse in the race, in the wrong spot. Renegade owns the field's best Equibase Speed Figure by seven points (107) and was beaten only a neck in the Kentucky Derby from the rail after a nightmare trip — on raw ability, he may be the one to beat. The catch is style and price: he's a deep closer in a race with no pace to run into, at a track that has rewarded forward types two years running, and he'll be no better than 2-1. Todd Pletcher, a four-time Belmont winner, insists he's adaptable enough to lay closer, and Irad Ortiz Jr. should get a much cleaner trip from post 4. I can't leave the class of the field off my tickets — I just won't take a short price that he beats the setup.

Golden Tempo (No. 9, 9-2)

I'm fading the Kentucky Derby winner on top and using him everywhere underneath. Golden Tempo ran down the Derby field from near-last at 23-1, and the Curlin–Bernardini pedigree is all stamina, so he belongs on every ticket. But everything that made him a brilliant Derby price works against him here: he's another deep closer who now has to do it with no pace, from the outside post, as one of the shortest prices on the board rather than a forgotten long shot. He beat exactly these rivals at Churchill, so I'll use him underneath in exactas and trifectas. I just think the Saratoga trend and the 9-2 number make him a far better key in the minor slots than a win bet.

Commandment (No. 7, 6-1)

The trip horse, and the best value of the bunch. Commandment was our Derby win pick and checked in seventh only after Ocelli's stretch move cost him room — and he didn't quit. The 1 1/4-mile distance is squarely in his wheelhouse: he won four straight stakes, capped by the Florida Derby (G1), rallying from off the pace each time. John Velazquez, a two-time Belmont winner, takes over for the first time. With four Derby foes who beat him drawing more of the betting attention, Commandment is the kind of 6-1 that can anchor a trifecta or fill out a superfecta if he finally gets the clean run he was denied at Churchill Downs.

📊 Belmont Stakes AI simulation & projected finish order

See the latest Belmont Stakes odds across the best horse racing betting sites.

How the race sets up

The pace is the whole story, and there isn't much of it. Powershift is the only horse in the field with a natural inclination to be on the lead, and he's a maiden graduate stepping into a Grade 1. Everyone else projects to stalk or close: Renegade and Golden Tempo from the back, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Commandment, and Emerging Market from mid-pack or nearer. That points to a slow, uncontested early tempo, which at Saratoga's two-turn 1 1/4 miles — with a shorter stretch than Belmont Park's — is the opposite of what a deep closer wants. Powershift could even get loose and prove hard to catch.

History backs the read. Both Belmonts run at this Saratoga trip went to horses on or near the pace — Dornoch pressed the lead to win in 2024, Sovereignty stalked just off it in 2025 — while the closers trying to rally from the back came up empty both years. Renegade and Golden Tempo are the two best horses on paper, but a deep closer needs a fast, contested pace to run into, and this field doesn't have one. Take that away, and the edge swings to a horse who can lay close.

🏇 Belmont Stakes horses & full field profiles

Here is Claude's read on all nine horses in the 2026 Belmont Stakes field in order of the Belmont Stakes post positions.

1. Vitruvian Man (30-1)

A bay colt by Vino Rosso — the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic winner at 1 1/4 miles — out of the Bernardini mare Caradini, a homebred for Glenn Sorgenstein and WC Racing who RNA'd for $47,000 at the 2025 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. The celebrity-backed Run Fast Racing group, which includes Lil Wayne and Lil Yachty, also has a stake. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O'Neill and ridden by Antonio Fresu — the only jockey in the field who has never ridden in the Belmont. Vitruvian Man is 1-for-6 ($142,345) and comes off a distant third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), 9 1/2 lengths behind So Happy. His top Equibase Speed Figure of 86 sits about 15 points below the leaders here, and he adds an Australian ring bit to address bearing-in issues. He's bred for the trip; the figures are the problem.

2. Powershift (12-1)

A dark bay or brown colt by Constitution out of the Quiet American mare Free Flying Soul, owned by Repole Stable and trained by four-time Belmont winner Todd Pletcher. Luis Saez rides. Powershift is 1-for-3 ($81,896) and lightly seasoned: he debuted with a second, beaten three-quarters of a length by Emerging Market at Tampa Bay Downs, ran a non-threatening sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) after missing the break, then dominated a 1 1/16-mile maiden on the Kentucky Derby undercard by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:41.86. He breezed a half-mile in :49.80 in tandem with stablemate Renegade on May 21 at Saratoga. As the projected lone speed, he could set the table for Renegade's rally — but he steps up enormously from a maiden win to a Grade 1 classic, and a loose, uncontested lead at this trip is the only way he hangs on.

3. Chief Wallabee (3-1)

A bay colt by Constitution out of the Medaglia d'Oro mare A La Lucie, bred and owned by Michael and Katherine Ball. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado — the same connections that won last year's Belmont at Saratoga with eventual Horse of the Year Sovereignty. Chief Wallabee is 1-for-4 ($466,600) with a top Equibase Speed Figure of 99 and is making just his fifth career start. He was second by a neck to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and third, beaten a half-length, in the Florida Derby (G1), then ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby, knocked off stride when Ocelli ducked in late before recovering to nip Danon Bourbon. He has been training steadily at Saratoga, and the Constitution–Medaglia d'Oro cross is bred to relish 1 1/4 miles.

4. Renegade (2-1)

A bay colt by Into Mischief out of the Curlin mare Spice Is Nice, owned by Robert and Lawana Low in partnership with Repole Stable and trained by four-time Belmont winner Todd Pletcher. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides. Renegade owns the field's top Equibase Speed Figure by a wide margin — a 107 — and is the most accomplished colt here at 2-3-1 from six starts ($2,031,500). He won the Arkansas Derby (G1) by four lengths, then ran second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten a neck by Golden Tempo from the rail (post 1) after being bumped repeatedly early and settling more than 12 lengths off the pace. The lone knock is style: he's a deep closer in a race that projects to lack pace, but Pletcher calls him adaptable, and post 4 in a nine-horse field should mean a far cleaner trip than the Derby allowed.

5. Ottinho (20-1)

A bay colt by Quality Road out of the Giant's Causeway mare Quiet Giant, owned by Three Chimneys Farm and trained by Hall of Famer Chad Brown, one of three runners he saddles in this race. Dylan Davis rides. Ottinho is a half-brother to two-time Horse of the Year and elite sire Gun Runner, and the pedigree is tailor-made for added distance. He's 1-for-4 ($324,700, top Equibase Speed Figure of 93) and earned his way here with a distant second in the Blue Grass (G1), 11 lengths behind runaway winner Further Ado, before his connections bypassed the Derby to point at Saratoga. That gives him more than two months between starts, the freshest horse in the field. His works since the Blue Grass have been steady and methodical, much like his one-paced running style. The freshness and the Gun Runner family are the draw, but a top figure of 93 against rivals running 99 to 107 is why he's 20-1.

6. Growth Equity (12-1)

A bay colt by Nyquist out of the Wildcat Heir mare My Dear Venezuela, owned by Klaravich Stables and trained by Chad Brown. Manny Franco rides. Growth Equity is 2-for-4 ($187,600) and the field's true wild card, having never faced any of these rivals. He broke his maiden at Aqueduct by 4 1/4 lengths in March, then took the Peter Pan (G3) — the traditional local Belmont prep — by two lengths on May 9 with a stalking trip, pushing his Equibase Speed Figure to an ascending 98. The Peter Pan-to-Belmont path has produced Tonalist (2015) and Arcangelo (2023). His best attribute is tactical speed, an asset in a field without a confirmed pacesetter, and if he improves again he can outrun his price. If his figure keeps climbing the way it has every start, 12-1 will look generous.

7. Commandment (6-1)

A bay colt by Into Mischief out of the Orb mare Sippican Harbor, owned by Wathnan Racing and trained by Brad Cox. Two-time Belmont winner John Velazquez takes the mount for the first time. Commandment won four straight stakes — capped by the Florida Derby (G1) on March 28 — rallying from off the pace each time, before checking in seventh in the Kentucky Derby, where he was jostled by Ocelli in the stretch in the same incident that cost Chief Wallabee. He's 4-for-6 ($1,017,339) with a top Equibase Speed Figure of 99. The 1 1/4-mile trip suits a colt who closed his Florida Derby with a 12.32-second final furlong, and with four Derby foes who beat him drawing more attention, he could offer value. A clean trip puts him right in the mix late.

8. Emerging Market (6-1)

A chestnut colt by Candy Ride out of the Empire Maker mare Wild Empress, owned by Klaravich Stables and trained by Chad Brown, with Flavien Prat staying aboard. Emerging Market is 2-for-3 ($618,880, top Equibase Speed Figure of 96). He beat Powershift by three-quarters of a length in his Tampa Bay Downs debut, then jumped up to win the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby (G2), handing Golden Tempo a defeat there. Sent off at 8.78-1 in the Kentucky Derby off just two starts, he enjoyed a trouble-free trip in fifth but came up empty when asked and faded to 10th. Brown wheels him back here, and the Candy Ride pedigree handles 1 1/4 miles. He had his chance in the Derby and he didn't take it — the ability isn't the worry, the finish is.

9. Golden Tempo (9-2)

A bay colt by Curlin out of the Bernardini mare Carrumba, a homebred for Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stable, trained by Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Jose Ortiz. Golden Tempo is the Kentucky Derby winner, having rallied from near-last at 23-1 to run down Renegade by a neck and make DeVaux the first woman to train a Derby winner. She could become the second woman to win the Belmont, after Jena Antonucci in 2023. He's 3-for-5 ($3,433,000, top Equibase Speed Figure of 100) with a Lecomte (G3) win and thirds in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, where he finished a length behind Emerging Market. The Curlin–Bernardini cross is pure stamina. He's had five weeks to recover and has trained well at Keeneland; the deep-closing style is the only worry at this Saratoga trip.

🌦️ Belmont Stakes weather forecast

Forecasts for Saratoga Springs point to a warm but unsettled Belmont day, with a high in the low 80s and scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon — a few potentially strong — and roughly a 50% chance of rain around the 7:04 p.m. ET post. If storms hit, the Saratoga main track could come up wet or sloppy, which would scramble the pace projection and reward horses that handle an off track; if they hold off, expect a fast track. I'll update this section as the forecast firms up closer to post.

📺 How to watch the Belmont Stakes 2026

• When: Saturday, June 6
• Post time: 7:04 p.m. ET
• Where: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
• How to watch: FOX