Emmy Odds, Favorites & Picks 2026: Hacks, Widow's Bay Battle for Major Awards

I'm diving into the Emmy odds for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards that are set to take place at the Peacock Theater on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET. "The Pitt" leads all shows with 25 nominations, while "Hacks" earned 24.

Below, I discuss all the main Emmy categories, and explain who could get upset, who's a lock, and more.

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🏆 Emmy odds 2026

Here are the favorites via Kalshi, along with my predictions. You can use our Kalshi promo code for up to $500 in bonuses by signing up today. Market subject to change.

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😂 Outstanding Comedy Series odds & prediction

• Hacks: 58%
• Widow's Bay: 40%
• Margo's Got Money Troubles: 3%
• Shrinking: 1%
• The Bear: <1%
• Only Murders in the Building: <1%
• Nobody Wants This: <1%
• Abbott Elementary: <1%

My prediction: Widow's Bay

Every season of "Hacks" has been nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series, and yet, the show has only won this award once. "Hacks" took home this award for Season 3, but in two of the other three years, it lost to a Season 1 show. I think the same thing is about to happen again.

Last year, "The Studio" won Outstanding Comedy Series. While "Widow's Bay" hasn't picked up as much traction with Emmy voters, I think Kalshi traders are seriously underestimating the horror-comedy.

"Widow's Bay" does a phenomenal job of balancing tone, being both laugh-out-loud hilarious and also downright terrifying. While it may not resonate with every voter, those who do enjoy it, love it. I think Kalshi traders are going with the safe option that they know for now, but I expect "Widow's Bay" to close the gap significantly before the Emmys. And in the end, I expect showrunner Katie Dippold to be accepting this award.

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🎬 Outstanding Drama Series odds & prediction

• The Pitt: 89%
• Pluribus: 10%
• A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: 5%
• Slow Horses: 1%
• The Gilded Age: <1%
• Your Friends & Neighbors: <1%
• Paradise: <1%
• The Diplomat: <1%

My prediction: Pluribus

"The Pitt" managed to win Outstanding Drama Series last year against what I believe was a much more competitive field than this year. Defeating "Severance" definitely surprised some, while "The White Lotus" and "The Last of Us" also had die-hard backers. Yet, while this year's field isn't as crowded, I do think that Kalshi traders are once again too heavily favoring the show they know and undervaluing two Season 1 programs.

While "A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms" will certainly have some backers, I doubt it has enough support to really make any noise in this category. But "Pluribus" does. Apple TV's latest show from Vince Gilligan ("Breaking Bad") has caught the attention of voters and has made Rhea Seehorn a lock for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series.

While "The Pitt" is rightfully favored here, you can't underestimate how much Emmy voters love Gilligan. He's won four Primetime Emmys, and though "Better Call Saul" never won the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series, it was nominated for every season. In a year where most favorites seem likely to win, I'll take a shot on a huge underdog in a category that could spring a surprise.

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👨‍🎤 Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series odds & prediction

• Matthew Rhys (Widow's Bay): 84%
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building): 6%
• Jason Segel (Shrinking): 4%
• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Wonder Man): <1%
• Steve Carell (Rooster): <1%

My prediction: Matthew Rhys (Widow's Bay)

Other than Jean Smart winning (more on her in a moment), this is the biggest lock of the night. Rhys was incredible in the first season of "Widow's Bay," perfectly capturing all of the weirdness necessary while also managing to stay grounded. 

Rhys was an Emmy favorite for his time on "The Americans," even winning Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series in 2018. And frankly, without last year's winner, Seth Rogen, in the mix, there's no one who's even worth considering for an upset. 

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🕴️ Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series odds & prediction

• Noah Wyle (The Pitt): 89%
• Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat): 25%
• Sterling K. Brown (Paradise): 7%
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses): <1%
• Mark Ruffalo (Task): <1%

My prediction: Noah Wyle (The Pitt)

Kalshi has seen very little trade volume for this category, which is why the percentages currently add up to way more than 100. But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. This is Wyle's award to win.

Last year, Wyle defeated Brown and Oldman, while also taking Adam Scott ("Severance") and Pedro Pascal ("The Last of Us"). Not to sound like a broken record, but the competition is weaker this year, and Rufus Sewell and Mark Ruffalo replacing Scott and Pascal doesn't really do anything to Wyle's chances.

While Sewell's odds are sitting at 25% right now, expect the number to drop to below 10% once more traders start investing in this category. After all, Sewell wasn't even nominated for the first two seasons of "The Diplomat."

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👩‍🎤 Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series odds & prediction

• Jean Smart (Hacks): 89%
• Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback): 9%
• Elle Fanning (Margo's Got Money Troubles): 6%
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary): <1%
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear): <1%

My prediction: Jean Smart (Hacks)

I wish that I could create some fake drama around this category, but if there's one thing that has been a lock since the first season of "Hacks," it's that Jean Smart is going to win the Emmy. She has won the Emmy for her role as Deborah Vance for all four seasons of the show, and I wouldn't be surprised if she was given a greater than 90% chance of winning by the time the Emmys roll around.

Smart's biggest competition is Lisa Kudrow for "The Comeback." Kudrow first brought Valerie Cherish to our TVs in 2005, and there's no doubt that some voters will have a soft spot for Kudrow, who took on the role again for the first time in 12 years. But "The Comeback" didn't pick up enough nominations to be taken seriously anywhere, so I don't expect Kudrow to get nearly enough support to dethrone Smart.

Really, Elle Fanning probably has the best chance of pulling the upset, but I wouldn't make any trades related to her.

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👸 Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series odds & prediction

• Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus): 78%
• Zendaya (Euphoria): 12%
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat): 11%
• Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age): <1%
• Chase Infiniti (The Testaments): <1%

My prediction: Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus)

This is another category where the favorite feels like a lock. However, with very little trading volume on Kalshi at this time, there may be a way to invest elsewhere to earn a profit.

To start, I firmly believe Seehorn is winning this award. She never really got the credit she deserved for "Better Call Saul," and I think that will resonate with Emmy voters. That said, I'm a little surprised by the percentages for Zendaya.

I actually recommend backing her at "No." I believe that her odds being listed at 12% has a lot to do with name recognition and the fact that she's fresh on all traders' minds thanks to The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. But realistically, I don't think she can win this award, and I think her odds for "No" will increase to greater than 90% before long, meaning backing "No" now could lead to profits in the near future.

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❓ Emmys FAQs

When are the Emmys?

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards will be at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 14, 2026.

Where are the Emmys?

The Emmys will be at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Emmys?

Mariska Hargitay will host the Emmys.

How to watch the Emmys

The Emmys will air live on NBC and stream on Peacock.

Who votes on the Emmys?

National Active members of the Television Academy vote on the Emmys.

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