Next James Bond Odds: Lowden Now Favored to Be the Next Bond

From Sean Connery to Daniel Craig, the Broccoli family had been the sole decision-maker regarding who deserved the 007 moniker. That was before Amazon provided a billion reasons for the Brocolis to change their tune. After acquiring MGM studios for $8.5 billion, the tech giant has officially taken control of the most prestigious spy franchise in cinema history.

In their first move, Amazon MGM went against the grain to sign acclaimed Canadian director Denis Villeneuve, signalling a serious reimagining of the beloved franchise. Villeneuve was not a frontrunner for the position, and with him already involved in the Dune franchise, the move also let fans know that a new Bond wasn't going to be the director's main priority in the immediate future.

With Dune: Part Three done filming, rumors from numerous publications, including USA Today, suggested that Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) was the favorite for the role. While some sources reported that Elordi was offered the part, no such confirmation was ever announced. Now, it's Jack Lowden (Dunkirk), a relative unknown, who is favored to be the next Bond. Callum Turner (Fantastic Beasts franchise) and Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nosferatu) are also leading contenders.

Here are the latest odds from Kalshi:

Next James Bond odds

(Updated August 13 at 12:45 p.m. ET)

Next James Bond contenders

As one-time Bond Pierce Brosnan said, more people have walked on the moon than have played James Bond (Indeed that is correct, with the score 12-7 to NASA).

Elordi, Harris Dickinson, and Tom Holland were the three names dominating conversations after rumors of a shortlist surfaced. Taylor-Johnson was a heavy favorite (61%) in late September, then Anthony Boyle took over as the frontrunner (25%) in late October. Turner (61%) became the favorite in early February, and while Elordi briefly took over as the favorite in late February (44%), Turner quickly regained his spot as the frontrunner in mid-March. In May, Tom Francis emerged as the favorite (29%), but since then it's Lowden (32%) who has taken over as the frontrunner for the role.

Here's a detailed look at some of the most notable contenders for the iconic role:

Jack Lowden (32%)

Lowden has been in the mix to play Bond since the original shortlist emerged. However, he really hasn't been taken seriously as a contender until now. 

In early-August, Richard Osman, a British TV personality announced that he heard that Lowden is going to be the next Bond, and the public has listened. Lowden's odds have skyrocketed to 32%, when he was being give less than a 10% chance of earning the role for the last year and a half.

Ultimately, like what happened with Francis, I expect Lowden's space at the top of the list to be short-lived. This feels more like hearsay than anything definitive, and once articles stop coming out about Osman's claim, I expect the public to forget about one of the lesser-known actors on the shortlist. That said, Lowden is definitely a viable choice, as he's already been Emmy-nominated as an MI5 agent in Slow Horses.

Callum Turner (27%)

Until Boyle came along, Turner was the only favorite who made a lot of sense as Bond. While Turner is certainly known in pop culture - after all, he is engaged to Dua Lipa - he's yet to become a Hollywood leading man. 

Turner is best known for playing Theseus Scamander in the Fantastic Beasts series, but the general public wouldn't know him from anything else. He took on the leading role in George Clooney's The Boys in the Boat, which was released in 2023. However, the film was hardly a box-office hit, grossing $55.5 million, and the reviews were mixed.

If Amazon MGM truly wants to go away from a big-name actor, then Turner is a great option, because while he's not the reason any of his films have been box office hits, he's still played key roles in films that have crossed $400 million at the box office.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson (14%)

The name most closely linked to Bond over the last two years, Taylor-Johnson has once again emerged as a favorite, after his odds plummeted to 11% in mid-October. His action-heavy resume featuring Bullet Train, Tenet, and Nosferatu is seasoned enough to handle the weight of the Bond franchise, and Taylor-Johnson himself fits the profile perfectly. He is one English candidate who will always be mentioned in Bond casting conversations, and on paper, there’s very little standing in his way.

However, plenty of great English actors have come and gone as favorites for this role, and despite the constant noise and speculation, no rumored agreement has ever surfaced. With any prior approaches and promises now moving beyond Barbara Broccoli’s control, the reality of Taylor-Johnson’s path to Bond has only grown murkier.

There's no doubt that his name will be circling the role until someone else is ultimately crowned. While I don't think Taylor-Johnson will be the next Bond, he's the most likely of any big-name actor in this conversation.

Jacob Elordi (11%)

Elordi is the only Australian being seriously considered, though it's worth mentioning the franchise has gone Down Under before with the casting of George Lazenby. While a talented actor, his casting and body of work typically lean more towards romantic dramatic roles than anything resembling a spy thriller.

Elordi has built his reputation through roles in Euphoria and Saltburn, and though he pivoted to an auteur-driven project, earning an Oscar nomination for his role in Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein, his latest role was as Heathcliff in Emerald Fennell's Wuthering Heights.

After a slew of rumors suggested Elordi was a lock for the role, oddsmakers have since cooled on him. I always felt the timing of the news was a bit ironic, as it coincided with the release of Wuthering Heights. To me, the rumors felt more rooted in timing and promoting a hot name for clicks than in fact.

Tom Francis (10%)

Out of nowhere, Francis emerged as the favorite to play 007, after Variety announced that he auditioned for the role on May 16. If Villeneuve is truly looking for an unknown, then perhaps no one fits the bill better than Francis. He is, after all, best known for his work in Andrew Lloyd Webber's stage play of "Sunset Boulevard," though some may know him from Jay Kelly and You, the only two acting credits on his IMDb page since 2000.

Because of how much of an unknown he is, I'm not surprised that Francis' odds have dropped in recent months. It's nice to hear that someone has auditioned for the role, but there are plenty of other actors who have likely auditioned as well; the information just hasn't been released publicly. It makes sense that Francis' reps would want to make this a more public audition, as they try to build the Tony nominee's name recognition.

Aaron Pierre (6%)

As is the trend with much of this market, Aaron Pierre is a British actor whose career is peaking at precisely the right moment. The 32-year-old has been a fancast favorite in Bond circles for years, often championed as the ideal choice if the franchise chooses to introduce its first Black James Bond story. Pierre has excelled in dramatic roles like Rebel Ridge and was handpicked to lead as Mufasa in the 2024 revival, but he is still waiting for his big blockbuster moment.

Considering he wasn’t included in the rumored shortlist floating around, Pierre’s early 11% price tag was likely fueled by fan enthusiasm rather than insider momentum. However, his odds have declined in recent months.

Harris Dickinson (5%)

Despite earning critical acclaim across several recent projects, the tall Englishman lacks the resume the studio may be looking for in choosing its franchise anchor. Originally one of the favorites to play Bond, Dickinson's odds have plummeted in recent months.

Dickinson is a talented actor who is appreciated within the niche of film circles, but the Bond brand demands more than acting potential. With a role in Sam Mendes’ four Beatles films now on his plate, Dickinson could complicate his availability if Amazon wants to break ground on this long-term franchise right away.

Tom Holland (4%)

Holland is possibly the biggest British superstar to be considered. Aside from often being seen as too baby-faced to convincingly carry a license to kill, Holland is also one of Hollywood’s busiest actors, as he starred in both Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day this summer.

From a business perspective, Amazon MGM may hesitate to cast an actor so closely associated with Disney properties to be the face of their studio. Having established himself as a global icon, committing to a near-decade of filming Bond seems counterintuitive to his career trajectory. While his inclusion on the rumored shortlist suggested industry curiosity, his 4% odds reflect his unlikely prospects of juggling both the roles of James Bond and Peter Parker.