Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga Prediction, Picks & Odds: Back AJ to Get Out Early

Welcome to our Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga prediction and The Comeback betting preview. Joshua is a -1800 betting favorite to beat Prenga on Saturday at the Jeddah Superdome in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The card streams live on DAZN pay-per-view as the main event of a 13-fight bill, with the main card listed for 1 p.m. ET, though the ringwalk will move depending on how long the undercard runs. Prenga comes back at +1000.

I like Joshua by knockout, and I think it lands in the third or fourth round. I have Joshua to win, with a stoppage doing almost all of that work. The number I like most is the round total. Under 3.5 rounds at +100 via bet365 is my best bet, and I'll explain why below.

🥊 Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga predictions: The Comeback

Total wagered: 12 units | Max profit: 3.85 units

💰 Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga best bet: Under 3.5 rounds (+100)

Even money on a fight I already expect to end in the third or fourth is the one price on the board that pays me properly.

Prenga has boxed 53 professional rounds across 21 fights. He hasn't been deep often, and he hasn't been deep against anyone capable of hurting him early. Joshua's jab is faster, longer, and more varied than his, and once Joshua starts feinting, the straight right and the uppercut arrive quickly.

Prenga's own route into the fight is his body work, which is genuinely good, but getting there means standing in Joshua's punching range long enough to load up and then exiting cleanly. He isn't quick enough with his head or his feet to do that repeatedly.

The catch is the half round. This needs the finish before the midpoint of the fourth, so a Round 4 stoppage that comes late doesn't cash. That's why it's +100 instead of a much shorter price, and why this is three units and not five.

🆚 Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga fight preview

Check our best boxing betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.

This will start with the jab because it decides everything else. Prenga has a respectable one. He stands upright, advances behind conventional straight punches, and uses the jab to set up his right hand and his body work. He is not a wild slugger. The problem is that he has mostly fought opponents who either backed straight up or stood available in front of him, and Joshua can make him reset after nearly every exchange. Once Prenga starts reaching, the straight right becomes a live threat on every step in.

Prenga's last five opponents came in at 16-14-1, 9-8-2, 11-6-2, 11-7-1 and 28-12-4. Joshua, meanwhile, has shared a ring with Usyk twice, plus Klitschko, Dubois, Parker, Ruiz and Povetkin.

The upset path is straightforward. Prenga needs to start fast, back Joshua to the ropes, invest in the body to lower his guard, fire the right hand over the jab, and capitalize if Joshua becomes disorganized. Daniel Dubois dropped him four times and stopped him in the fifth, doing a version of that. Dubois also had elite athleticism, a world-class jab and proven power. Prenga has not shown he can close distance the way Dubois did. Joshua's chin makes the upset possible. It doesn't make it likely.

Prediction: Joshua by KO (-700 via BetMGM)

💡 How I'm handicapping Joshua vs. Prenga

Joshua at -1800 is 5.0 units to win 0.28, and I understand anyone who looks at that and walks away. The implied number is about 95 percent, which is almost exactly where I have the fight, so there's no edge in it. It's a stability play to anchor the card, nothing more.

Joshua by KO at -700 is the better version of the same opinion. He has 26 knockouts in 29 wins. This is also a fighter archetype he crushes. Prenga is a big orthodox heavyweight who gives him time to see the punches coming, and the market's wider number of -2500 to -4000 on the outright tells you the industry agrees the finish is the likely outcome. Paying -700 to get the method attached is a fair trade.

Under 3.5 is my swing. If the read on the third round is right, it pays even money. If Prenga survives the early feeling-out and drags this into the middle rounds, I lose three units and still cash the other two tickets. That's a spread I'm comfortable with.

📊 Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga odds

Odds via bet365; subject to change.

Joshua is also -700 to win by KO at BetMGM, while under 3.5 rounds sits at +100 at bet365.

⚖️ Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga: The Comeback

• Date: Saturday, July 25
• Time: 1 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Jeddah Superdome (Jeddah, Saudi Arabia)
• Streaming: DAZN PPV