🏝️ Who Will Win Survivor 50? Best Odds at Prediction Markets
Another episode of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans is in the books, and another former winner has seen their dreams of repeating come to an end. Savannah Louie, winner of Season 49, was unanimously voted out by her tribe, leaving Dee Valladares (Season 45) as the only remaining victor.
With 21 players left heading into Episode 3: Did You Vote For a Swap, we're looking at prediction markets for who will win Survivor 50. After a rough first episode, Cirie Fields, generally considered the best player to never win, was able to convince her tribe to move the vote off Ozzy Lusth and onto Louie. But with a tribe swap imminent, how will the games of Fields and the remaining players be impacted?
📊 Who will win Survivor 50?
Following episode 2 of Survivor 50, Aubry Bracco is still a huge favorite, trading at 87 cents to win. Bracco certainly had a better second episode than her first, as Christian Hubicki elected to gift her the Billie Eilish Boomerang Idol. The odds still look stacked against Bracco, but with an idol in her pocket, she's well-positioned to survive any potential hiccups after the swap.
You can currently buy Bracco "yes" for 87 cents, but the value seems to be decreasing by the day. In most cases, the price in cents for the "yes" directly matches the chance an option has of being successful. However, in rare instances, there is a cent or two discrepancy.
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
What do those percentage chances mean?
For many who are new to prediction markets, it's handy to put the Kalshi percentage chances into American odds. We do this by using an odds converter, converting the percentage chances into implied odds. Here's a snapshot of all the player's chances of winning after the premiere, along with their American odds.
| Player | Kalshi percentage chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 87% | -669 |
| Cirie Fields | 4% | +2400 |
| Jonathan Young | 3% | +3233 |
| Joe Hunter | 3% | +3233 |
| Rizo Velovic | 2% | +4900 |
| Coach Wade | 2% | +4900 |
| Christian Hubicki | 2% | +4900 |
| Angelina Keeley | <1% | +10000 |
| Charlie Davis | <1% | +10000 |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | <1% | +10000 |
| Colby Donaldson | <1% | +10000 |
| Dee Valladares | <1% | +10000 |
| Emily Flippen | <1% | +10000 |
| Genevieve Mushaluk | <1% | +10000 |
| Kamilla Karthigesu | <1% | +10000 |
| Mike White | <1% | +10000 |
| Ozzy Lusth | <1% | +10000 |
| Q Burdette | <1% | +10000 |
| Rick Devens | <1% | +10000 |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | <1% | +10000 |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | <1% | +10000 |
🔮 Survivor 50 prediction
Bracco is the leader here, and there are plenty of reasons for that. She has plenty of experience with three seasons under her belt (32, 34, 38), including a runner-up finish in her debut and a final five showing in her second appearance. However, at 87 cents, there's almost no value in backing her. Therefore, I'm looking to beat her.
Jonathan Young might only be trading at 3% following the second episode, but he's my pick to win the game. Young finished 4th on his first season, and though he hasn't gone to tribal council yet, he seems dead set on playing a different game than the one he played on Season 42.
With a tribe swap taking place in the next episode, Young is probably the safest person on the island as the ultimate challenge beast. But it also seems as though his social game has improved. We've seen him bonding with members of his tribe, while others, like Chrissy Hofbeck, rub people the wrong way. There's a lot of game left to be played, but Young being voted out any time soon would be shocking.
Long-shot pick
14 of the 21 remaining contestants are currently being given a less than 1% chance to win the game. One of the players who recently saw their odds increase after an incredible second episode is Christian Hubicki.
The fan-favorite made a strong alliance with Rick Devens in the premiere, and their bond only grew in episode 2. After an unfortunate "evacuation," Hubicki used the tribe's perception of him as the class clown to fake a fall at tribal council so that Devens could plant a fake idol clue. It was a brilliant move, and one that could set up both players for success down the line.
🏝️ Who is competing
Here is a look at the 24 players that took to the beaches of Fiji to compete in season 50, listed alphabetically.
| Contestant | Age | Appearances (season number) | Best finish | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 39 | 3 (32, 34, 38) | Runner-up season 32 | |
| Quintavius "Q" Burdette | 31 | 1 (46) | 6th jury member season 46 | |
| Charlie Davis | 27 | 1 (46) | Runner-up season 46 | |
| Rick Devens | 41 | 1 (38) | 13th jury member season 38 | |
| Colby Donaldson | 51 | 3 (2, 8, 20) | Runner-up season 2 | |
| Tiffany Ervin | 34 | 1 (46) | 10th jury member season 46 | |
| Cirie Fields | 54 | 4 (12, 16, 20, 34) + Australia (13) | 8th jury member season 16 | |
| Emily Flippen | 30 | 1 (45) | 5th jury member season 45 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | Winner season 48 | Medically removed Episode 1 | |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | 54 | 1 (35) | Runner-up season 35 | |
| Christian Hubicki | 39 | 1 (37) | 7th jury member season 37 | |
| Joe Hunter | 45 | 1 (48) | Second runner-up season 48 | |
| Kamila Karthigesu | 31 | 1 (48) | 8th jury member season 48 | |
| Angeline Keeley | 35 | 1 (37) | Second runner-up season 37 | |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | 45 | 3 (10, 11, 20) | Runner-up season 11 | |
| 47 | 2 (1, 8) | 7th jury member season 8 | Voted out Episode 1 | |
| 31 | 1 (49) | Winner season 49 | Voted out Episode 2 | |
| Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth | 43 | 4 (13, 16, 23, 34) | Runner-up season 13 | |
| Genevieve Mushaluk | 34 | 1 (47) | 7th jury member season 47 | |
| Dianelys "Dee" Valladares | 28 | 1 (45) | Winner season 45 | |
| Rizo Velovic | 25 | 1 (49) | 8th jury member season 49 | |
| Benjamin "Coach" Wade | 53 | 3 (18, 20, 23) | Runner-up season 23 | |
| Mike White | 54 | 1 (37) | Runner-up season 37 | |
| Jonathan Young | 32 | 1 (42) | 8th jury member season 42 |
The season features three previous winners, all from recent seasons: Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49. We also have eight runners-up, and two second-runners-up.
Cirie and Ozzy both return for a fifth season of the American version of the game, although Cirie also has an Australian season under her belt.
🗳️ Fan votes
Two fan votes have already been revealed: the tribe colors will be orange, teal, and magenta, and the finale will return to be done live in Los Angeles.
We found out during the premiere that fans voted not to give the tribes rice or supplies. We also saw an idol appear, showing fans voted for them to remain in action, and we saw a dynamic advantage to come out.
While the immunity necklace wasn't revealed, we did see the tribal immunity idols come in the shape of birds.
Here are a look at some votes remaining to be disclosed:
- Final four fire-making -> "Keep it" or "Lose it"
- Final four challenge -> "Pinball Wizard" or "The Obstacle Course" or "Simmotion"
- Tribe switch -> "Yes" or "No"
- Immunity necklace design -> "A medallion" or "A decorative bird"
- Twists -> "I don't list twists - keep them rare!" or "I love twists - bring them on!"
📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
💡 Why should I wager on Survivor 50 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Survivor 50 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is trading as the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi, with odds sitting over 85% following the second episode.
When does Survivor 50 start?
Survivor 50 started on Feb. 25, 2026.
How do I watch Survivor 50?
You can watch the Survivor 50 live on CBS, or stream on Paramount+. Episodes air at 8 p.m. ET.
Which returning winners are appearing on Survivor 50?
Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49 are the three previous winners returning for Survivor season 50.
Who was the first player voted out on Survivor 50?
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty was the first player voted out. She was the lone contestant from Season 1.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
