Sparks vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, Aug. 13
My Sparks vs. Liberty prediction fades the home team tonight, with tipoff from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., set for 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
New York, which began the year with the third-shortest WNBA championship odds, is an 8.5-point betting favorite. But the Liberty have struggled of late, going 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games.
🏀 Sparks vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Sparks +8.5 (+100 via BetMGM) | 0.5u → 0.5u | New York is 6-9 ATS when favored by 7.5 points or more this year. |
| Over 186.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 0.5u → 0.44u | These two teams have combined for 417 points in two head-to-head meetings this year. |
| Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+124 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.24u | Breanna Stewart has dished 11 dimes in two matchups against the Sparks, who rank 14th in assists allowed. |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.18 units
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🏆 Who will win Sparks vs. Liberty?
I predict the Liberty to win by seven points against the Sparks on Thursday. New York has a 6.5-game lead for the No. 8 seed, so it doesn't have to worry about missing the playoffs. But the Liberty are running out of time to figure things out after being preseason championship favorites. It's difficult to trust them too much right now.
Score prediction: Liberty 98, Sparks 91
💰 Sparks vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Sparks +8.5 (+100)
Taking the points with the Sparks costs as much as -118 at FanDuel, indicating that BetMGM offers a bargain with its +100 value for the same spread.
New York shouldn't be trusted as a big favorite. The Liberty are 6-9 against the spread when favored by 7.5 points or more this season. They have split the season series with the Sparks thus far, with neither matchup decided by more than four points.
Given that the Liberty are 12th in defensive rating over the last month, I can't trust them to get enough stops to win by margin.
🔥 Best Sparks vs. Liberty player prop bet
Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+124)
Breanna Stewart has been having a stellar season despite New York's overall struggles. It can be difficult to find value on her props, as her scoring line is rightfully trading at 22.5.
However, I like the plus-money price on Over 3.5 assists for Stewart. She's dished 11 dimes in two matchups with the Sparks this season. Los Angeles ranks 14th in assists allowed this year.
Across the last 19 games with Sabrina Ionescu in the lineup, Stewart is averaging 3.6 assists on 7.4 potential dimes. She's cleared this line 11 times.
🚀 Sparks vs. Liberty same-game parlay
I didn't find much of an edge on the main markets, so I've turned to player props for tonight's Sparks vs. Liberty parlay. For Stewart to clear her assist line, Ionescu will likely benefit the most as a scorer. Los Angeles has struggled against opposing guards this year. I've also settled for the Liberty's moneyline value in a game they should win.
💵 Sparks vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Breanna Stewart Over 3.5 assists (+124)
- Sabrina Ionescu 20-plus points (+105)
- New York ML (-375)
Best odds: +360 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.36u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 96-109-1 | +14.65 units ✅ | 10.2% ✅ |
| Player props | 33-22 | +8.3 units ✅ | 15.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 7-42 | -1.75 units ❌ | -35.8% ❌ |
📊 Live Sparks vs. Liberty odds
📺 How to watch Sparks vs. Liberty
- Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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