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MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Thursday, Aug. 13

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for today's MLB slate.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 13, 2026 7:22 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Pictured: Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto at bat as we make our best home run predictions today. Photo by Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

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Aaron Nola toeing the rubber at the hitter-friendly Field of Dreams in Dyersville, Iowa, has me backing two Minnesota Twins sluggers as part of my home run predictions today.

In addition to fading the home run-happy Nola, I also oppose another struggling veteran pitcher, Max Scherzer, while expecting a Boston Red Sox slugger to belt his first home run since coming over at the trade deadline. The last of my four MLB home run picks backs Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto to go yard for the third time in his career off of Jacob deGrom.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 13

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

💣 Home run pick	💵 Units	📝 Notes
Kody Clemens to hit a home run (+375 via bet365)	0.25u → 0.94u	Aaron Nola’s 29 home runs allowed are an MLB-high
Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+500 via FanDuel)	0.25u → 1.25u	Scherzer has allowed nine homers in 22 innings at home
Josh Bell to hit a home run (+470 via FanDuel)	0.25u → 1.18u	Bell has three career home runs off Nola
Zach Neto to hit a home run (+500 via bet365)	0.25u → 1.25u	Neto has a career 1.583 OPS against deGrom

Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.62 units

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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Kody Clemens (+375)

No MLB pitcher has allowed more home runs this season than Aaron Nola, whose 29 long balls against are one worse than Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (though Nola has pitched 12 ⅓ fewer innings).

Nola has allowed at least one home run in 10 of 11 starts, and multiple home runs a whopping seven times in that span. Optimists will say he has pitched to a 3.24 ERA over his last three starts, but he has still allowed four home runs and induced 26 fly balls to 19 ground balls in that span.

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Netflix

📡 SBR Edge: Field of Dreams bandbox

The inaugural Field of Dreams game in 2021 between the Yankees and White Sox was a 9-8 slugfest that featured eight combined home runs.

🔥 More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Adley Rutschman (+500)

Adley Rutschman made his Red Sox debut on Tuesday, and promptly reached base three times. I expect him to hit his ninth homer of the season, and his first with Boston.

Following Toronto’s 5-3 win on Tuesday, it had won eight of its last 10 games against Boston. However, Max Scherzer is a far cry from the other Blue Jays starting pitchers who looked dominant in that stretch, as he has pitched to a 9.82 ERA and allowed nine home runs in 22 home innings.

Rutschman has a .500 or better slugging percentage or xSLG against three of the four primary pitches he has seen. That includes four-seam fastballs and sliders, which opposing hitters are slugging .455 and .711, respectively, off Scherzer.

Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited

Home run pick: Josh Bell (+470)

Josh Bell is my second Twins pick to go yard off Nola, as the switch hitter has belted 11 of his 16 home runs off of right-handed pitchers. Bell is 8-for-41 in those head-to-head matchups, but three of the eight hits have been homers.

Bell has logged a ridiculous 1.069 OPS in August, comprised of a .375/.444/.625 slash line. His three home runs already matched July’s total, and I expect him to take aim at the gettable Field of Dreams dimensions that are 335 feet down the lines.

Bell is a great value play who ranks in the 73rd percentile in xSLG. He’s also on pace for a career-high 20% pull air percentage, obliterating his previous single-season high of 17.8%.

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Netflix

Home run pick: Zach Neto (+500)

Zach Neto was a popular name surfacing at the trade deadline, as he is looking for his third straight season with a 5.0-plus WAR, and has already turned in his third consecutive 20-home run season.

Neto has sacrificed some of his hard-hit rate numbers (40.1% is down from a career-high 46.6% last year) for a more consistent fly ball rate that is up 5.4% from last year.

Four of Neto’s five career hits off Rangers ace Jacob deGrom have gone for extra bases, including two home runs. That has resulted in a 1.083 slugging percentage, while the righty has been inefficient with his pitch count of late. deGrom has recorded 15 or fewer outs in five straight starts, while the Rangers bullpen ranks 20th in HR/9 rate and ERA.

Time: 10:07 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

Kody Clemens to hit a home run (+375)
Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+475)
Josh Bell to hit a home run (+400)
Zach Neto to hit a home run (+500)

Best odds: +81838 via bet365 (0.1u -> 81.8u)

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

Bet type	Record	Net profit	ROI
Overall	222-354-1	+46.97 units ✅	+12.9% ✅
Game picks	87-67-1	+13.13 units ✅	+7.7% ✅
Player props	135-287	+33.84 units ✅	+16.2% ✅

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado (12) looks to make a pass against the UNLV Rebels during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium.

MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Thursday, Aug. 13