Phillies vs. Braves Prediction & Picks: Game 3 NL Wild Card Odds, Betting Splits

The Braves squandered a 3-1 eighth-inning lead Wednesday with a chance to win their first postseason series against the Phillies, and my Phillies vs. Braves prediction for Game 3 backs the road favorite given its huge pitching edge in this win-or-go-home tilt.

My MLB picks also expect Alec Bohm to stay hot after his Game 2 heroics and call for Bryce Harper to add to his gaudy career postseason home run total. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 8 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock), with the Phillies entering as a -115 betting favorite.

(Editor's note: This article was originally published before the Phillies announced Aaron Nola as their starter and the Braves announced Ray Kerr as their opener.)

⚾ Phillies vs. Braves picks & odds: NL Wild Card Game 3

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.11 units

💰 Phillies vs. Braves prediction & best bet

Phillies ML (-115)

Philadelphia limped into the playoffs and hasn’t inspired much confidence with a 2-5 record in its last seven games. But Atlanta is also just 3-9 in its last 12 postseason games, and is in a much worse position to win this elimination game.

The arms Atlanta will have available at the back end of the bullpen is questionable as Dylan Lee, Raisel Iglesias, and Didier Fuentes each pitched in Games 1 and 2. Grant Holmes will be asked to eat a bulk of the innings, and Atlanta lost his two September starts against Philadelphia by a combined score of 10-4.

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Braves player prop bet

Alec Bohm Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-108)

Alec Bohm entered the playoffs on a tear for more than a month at the plate. Through Aug. 9, Bohm was slashing .227/.288/.359 with a 70.8 mph average bat speed. When his bat speed increased to 72 mph from Aug. 10 to the end of the regular season, his slash line numbers increased to .313/.393/.451. In his final 40 games, he had 15 extra-base hits, 25 RBI, a .393 on-base percentage and a .451 slugging percentage.

Bohm hasn’t missed a beat in this series, following a 1-for-4 with an RBI performance in Game 1 with his first career extra-inning home run and third career postseason homer on Wednesday. Thus, it seems like light-years ago he went 0-for-13 over the final four games of the regular season against Brewers and Rays pitching.

There is great value on this wager at DraftKings, as Bohm has as high as 54.55% implied odds to cash this Over through the -120 price at the high end of the market.

💣 Phillies vs. Braves home run prediction

Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+525)

Bryce Harper tied Game 2 with his 18th career postseason home run, which tied him with five other sluggers for the 10th most in MLB history. It was also his 13th playoff homer with Philadelphia, which is the second most in franchise history.

Kyle Schwarber and Harper have now homered in the same postseason game on five occasions, which is tied with Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve for the third most among a pair of teammates. 

If Harper can homer off Dylan Lee, there isn’t another Braves arm that is guaranteed to keep him in the yard. Lee had faced 102 left-handed batters and allowed zero home runs before Schwarber and Harper went back-to-back off him.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Braves odds

🤑 Phillies vs. Braves betting splits

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🚑 Phillies vs. Braves injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Braves: Game 3

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 1
• First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (Regular season: 7-12, 4.67 ERA)
• Braves starter: Ray Kerr (Regular season: 0-0, 1.47 ERA)