Padres vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: Game 1 NL Division Series Odds, Betting Splits
The likely NL Cy Young Award winner and Milwaukee Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski looks to cool down the red-hot San Diego Padres, but my Padres vs. Brewers prediction expects San Diego to weather the early storm and stay close in this matchup while covering the run line.
First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, airing on FS1. The Brewers are the biggest favorites of any team in the Division Series openers with massive -225 moneyline odds.
⚾ Padres vs. Brewers picks & odds: NL Division Series Game 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Padres +1.5 | -123 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 0.81 units |
| Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 outs | -113 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 0.89 units |
| Jackson Chourio to hit a home run | +518 via DraftKings | 0.25 units to win 1.3 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.0 units
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💰 Padres vs. Brewers prediction & best bet
Padres +1.5 (-123)
You don’t have to sell me on why Milwaukee is such a big favorite after winning a franchise record 103 games. The Brewers are 22-8 in Jacob Misiorowski’s starts with an active nine-game winning streak and recent stretches of a 12-1 record and 20-4 record when he toes the rubber.
But to dismiss San Diego’s chances in Game 1 after needing the minimum of two games to get the better of the Chicago Cubs is a mistake. The Padres went 41-18 from July 24 to the end of the regular season, and that was not only the best record in the Majors over that span, but it was also tied for the best 59-game stretch in franchise history.
📡 SBR Edge: Head-to-head success
San Diego won four of the six games between these teams in the regular season, and was one of just four National League teams to win the season series against Milwaukee.
🔥 Best Padres vs. Brewers player prop bet
Jacob Misiorowski Over 17.5 outs (-113)
Milwaukee took a very conservative approach with Misiorowski towards the end of the regular season, as he didn’t record more than 16 outs in four of his five September starts. But in the lone home start he made against a playoff team in that span, he was rather economical with his 93 pitches, getting through 6.1 innings while recording nine strikeouts for the only time among his final eight starts.
Misiorowski has only been asked to throw 112 pitches in his last two starts combined, so I’d expect his fastball to be more lively than usual and for him to empty the tank against a Padres lineup that entered ranked ninth of 12 playoff teams in runs per game.
💣 Padres vs. Brewers home run prediction
Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+518)
It may seem blasphemous to pick a batter from a team that hit the second-fewest home runs in the regular season as my top home run wager, compared to a Padres team that ranked in the top half of the league in home runs. But that is the respect I’m giving Misiorowski to keep the ball in the yard, as his 0.72 HR/9 rate was the fourth-lowest among qualified starters.
While it hasn’t yet been announced, there is speculation that Robbie Ray will get the ball for San Diego in Game 1. Ray has an ERA nearly two runs higher in his nine starts with the Padres than his start of the year with San Francisco, and his HR/9 rate has worsened from 1.1 to 1.5 in that span as well.
If it is Ray toeing the rubber, Jackson Chourio belted a team-high nine home runs against southpaws this season.
📊 Live Padres vs. Brewers odds
Even with the likely Cy Young winner getting the ball for Milwaukee, its moneyline odds have shortened from -225 to -220 at several of our best sports betting sites. That movement comes despite 60% of the wagers backing the Brewers, as there are plenty of believers in San Diego entering this road series opener.
Perhaps the more surprising split is that 56% of the wagers have backed the Over, which is current at 7 runs across all the best sports betting sites except for FanDuel's O/U of 6.5. BetMGM was the only sportsbook to see its total drop as low as 6 before returning to its original number, and it's fair to wonder if that uptick was because of rumors that Ray was starting for the Padres instead of them using a bullpen game.
🚑 Padres vs. Brewers injuries
📺 How to watch Padres vs. Brewers: Game 1
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- First pitch: TBD
- Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
- TV: FOX/FS1
- Streaming: FOX One
- Padres starter: TBD
- Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (Regular season: 16-5, 1.80 ERA)
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