Yankees vs. Rays Prediction & Picks: Game 1 AL Division Series Odds, Betting Splits
The Tampa Bay Rays look to slow down the New York Yankees’ momentum in the opening game of this AL Division Series between two AL East rivals, and my Yankees vs. Rays prediction gives the edge to the home favorites in Game 1 behind Drew Rasmussen’s arm.
Tampa Bay narrowly won the season series 7-6 while finishing 4.5 games ahead of New York in the AL East. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). The Rays are -140 betting favorites.
⚾ Yankees vs. Rays picks & odds: AL Division Series Game 1
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| Pick | Best Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Rays First Five Innings ML | -148 via FanDuel | 1 unit to win 0.68 units |
| Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs | -122 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 0.82 units |
| Yandy Diaz to hit a home run | +790 via FanDuel | 0.25 units to win 1.31 units |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: +3.11 units
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💰 Yankees vs. Rays prediction & best bet
Rays First Five Innings ML (-148)
New York is getting a lot of betting support after clobbering the Red Sox by a combined score of 18-to-2 in the two-game sweep. But the Yankees were only winning those games by scores of 2-0 and 1-0 when Boston went to the bullpen early, and I’m limiting this wager to just the first five innings since Tampa Bay’s bullpen ERA ranked 10th out of the 12 playoff teams.
Perhaps the Yankees merely faced a Red Sox team that reverted back to their 32-46 start and not the one who ripped off 32 wins in 37 games after that. Tampa Bay was the best home team in the AL by a full six games.
📡 SBR Edge: The unbeatable Rasmussen
After the All-Star Break, Tampa Bay went a perfect 12-0 in Drew Rasmussen's 12 starts while covering the run line seven times (including his final start against the Yankees which was a 6-1 victory).
🔥 Best Yankees vs. Rays player prop bet
Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs (-122)
I’m not doubting a New York offense that got hot and exploded for 18 runs in the sweep of the Red Sox. But much of the Yankees’ success in that series came against Boston’s left-handed pitching, as they went 15-for-34 with two extra-base hits, five RBI, and a 5:2 K:BB ratio against Red Sox southpaws.
Rasmussen was one of four pitchers this year with at least five starts of seven or more shutout innings. He went 7-0 in his first seven starts after the All-Star Break with 62 strikeouts and a 2.07 ERA, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors in that span.
Rasmussen’s .577 OPS allowed is the fourth-lowest among all pitchers since 2023 (min. 350 IP). He had an historic season become the third different pitcher in Rays history with 15 wins and a sub-2.75 ERA in a single season, and I expect him to cruise early in this game.
💣 Yankees vs. Rays home run prediction
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+1300)
If Gerrit Cole is named New York’s starter in Game 1, that raises Rays’ hitters chances of going deep considerably given his struggles of keeping the ball in the yard down the stretch.
Cole had a two-start stretch in September where he allowed seven home runs, which were tied for the most allowed in a two-start span in Yankees history (he had allowed 13 home runs over his previous 18 starts).
Cole finished the regular season with at least one home run allowed in four consecutive starts (nine home runs allowed total in that span). He hasn’t had the best success against Yandy Diaz either, allowing a .340/.389/.520 slash line to the righty with two of his five extra-base hits going for home runs.
📊 Live Yankees vs. Rays odds
There hasn't been much line movement in the moneyline odds for this matchup since its opening, and there's only a small seven-cent gap between the -134 odds at FanDuel at the low end of the market and the -141 (58.51% implied odds) on the high end at DraftKings. The splits are near dead-even with 52% of the wagers backing the Rays, but it will be interesting to see where the money lands once New York officially makes its decision on a Game 1 starter between Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon.
FanDuel is the only of our best sports betting sites currently offering an O/U of 6.5 runs, while the rest of the market is slightly higher at 7. Both BetMGM and bet365 had dropped their totals to 6.5 on multiple occasions over the last 24 hours, but were always bet back up to the opening number of 7. That aligns with the betting splits that are slightly in favor of the Over (57%).
🚑 Yankees vs. Rays injuries
📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Rays: Game 1
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
- First pitch: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Fla.)
- TV: TBS/truTV
- Streaming: DIRECTV
- Yankees starter: TBD
- Rays starter: Drew Rasmussen (Regular season: 16-5, 2.67 ERA)
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