Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Aug. 13

The Seattle Mariners are arguably MLB’s biggest disappointment this season after finishing one game away from a World Series berth last year, and they look to avoid being swept by the New York Yankees this afternoon. My Mariners vs. Yankees prediction eschews New York’s steep moneyline odds and backs Max Fried to limit Seattle’s run-scoring potential. That means Cal Raleigh should be in for another poor day at the plate, and I also add a play on Luis Garcia to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

Opposing Fried on the mound is Logan Gilbert, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Yankees are -140 betting favorites.

⚾ Mariners vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Mariners vs. Yankees?

Seattle has lost six of its last seven series, and does not inspire any confidence to avoid a sweep in the Bronx while amid a six-game losing streak.

Score prediction: Yankees 4, Mariners 1

💰 Mariners vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Mariners team total Under 3.5 (-110)

Entering yesterday, Seattle’s offense managed one run per game over its last five. Over those 45 innings, four of the team’s five runs came via solo home runs. Homers are not something the Mariners should count on often when facing Max Fried, who has allowed by far the lowest HR/9 rate of any pitcher who has thrown a minimum of 80 innings this season (0.11). 

Seattle’s offense has struggled all season, but even more so against left-handed pitching. The Mariners rank 29th or worse in BABIP, batting average, and wOBA, and are 28th in on-base percentage against southpaws.

🔥 Best Mariners vs. Yankees player prop bet

Cal Raleigh Under 0.5 hits (+112)

Cal Raleigh’s downgrade from a 60-home-run slugger a year ago to one of the worst qualified hitters in the Majors this year is perplexing. After Raleigh finished second in WAR among position players behind just Aaron Judge last season, the “Big Dumper’s” WAR this season is -0.4. In the process, his hard-hit rate dropped from 49.6% to 34.5%, and his strikeout rate is an astronomical 32%.

Raleigh had just one hit in his previous 14 at-bats entering Tuesday. To make matters worse, he is in his worse hitting split as a switch hitter, with lower slash line numbers across the board against left-handed pitchers.

Fried’s 2.39 FIP is second only to Jacob Misiorowski (min. 80 IP), and I love these odds for him and Yankee relievers to hold Raleigh hitless, especially since the catcher is 1-for-9 lifetime against Fried.

💣 Mariners vs. Yankees home run prediction

Luis Garcia to hit a home run (+400)

Logan Gilbert has allowed just one home run in 54 road innings this year, while his ERA away from home is 1.51 runs lower. But the righty has also allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two starts at the hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park, and that spells doom when facing a Yankees lineup that has belted the most home runs in the AL this year.

Luis Garcia entered yesterday still ranked in the top 20 in the Majors in homers despite only homering once in his first game as a Yankee. He added two extra-base hits in Monday’s series opener, and his 92nd-percentile xSLG and .584 slugging percentage against fastballs give him a great chance to go yard again this afternoon.

🚀 Mariners vs. Yankees same-game parlay

The first two legs of this same-game parlay go hand in hand, as Raleigh’s season-long struggles are a microcosm of Seattle’s light-hitting offense. While backing Garcia Jr. to homer certainly would add value as a third leg of this SGP, I am going the conservative route given Gilbert’s ability to keep the ball in the yard in road starts. Garcia Jr. has hit safely in 10 of his last 14 games, with six multi-hit games mixed in.

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💡 How I'm betting Mariners vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

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New York has not exactly been tearing the cover off the ball of late, as it has been held to three or fewer runs in 16 of 24 games since the All-Star Break. That is a big reason why I am not more keen on its moneyline or run line odds. Also, Seattle’s depleted bullpen has no trusted arm outside of closer Andres Munoz at the moment, which is why I am passing on the full-game Under. 

Given that I like Seattle’s team total Under to cash, I also wouldn’t put anyone off backing the Under on Fried’s earned runs allowed, which one can get for +101 odds at Under 1.5 at DraftKings.

📊 Live Mariners vs. Yankees odds

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🚑 Mariners vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Mariners vs. Yankees

• Date: Thursday, August 13
• First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Mariners starter: Logan Gilbert (8-7, 3.42 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Max Fried (4-3, 2.88 ERA)