MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, Aug. 12
The balls were flying deep into the night for us yesterday, with Matt Olson going yard and cashing at +357, and Joc Pederson doing the same at +258. Now we look toward the mashing Pete Crow-Armstrong to keep the momentum going in my home run predictions today.
Crow-Armstrong is always a fine choice for my MLB home run picks while sitting ninth leaguewide in homers at 27, and second in OPS at .932. He bats leadoff for us today, with Jac Caglianone and Elly De La Cruz following while also drawing highly appealing matchups.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 12
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+286 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.57u | Has been experiencing little to no drop in power against lefties. |
| Jac Caglianone home run (+332 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Boasts one of the highest hard-hit ratees in the majors. |
| Elly De La Cruz (+335 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.67u | Should see plenty of sliders, a pitch he crushes. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.9 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+286)
You simply do not want to be a rookie with questionable command making his debut against the Chicago Cubs and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Jackson Kent is that rookie tonight. Great days may lie ahead for him, but a 3.1 BB/9 in Triple-A is concerning short term. That contributed to his fine yet unimpressive 4.38 ERA at that level.
It matters little that he's a lefty, as Crow-Armstrong hits same-sided pitching well and is actually producing a slightly better OPS against southpaws (.939 compared to .929 against righties). He's also been blazing recently, with a 1.150 OPS over the past week.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Willing to walk
Walks aren't nearly as much fun as dingers, but improved plate discipline has been greatly contributing to Crow-Armstrong's sustained success this season, as he's getting more pitches to drive as a result. His walk rate has risen from a lowly 4.5% last year to 12.2% now, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Jac Caglianone (+332)
Eric Lauer has gone from being horrendous with the Blue Jays to somewhere between serviceable and fine with the Dodgers. But despite his recent success, Lauer's approach is still plenty appealing when you're dinger hunting.
That's especially true when we can roll with Jac Caglianone, whose hard-hit rate of 55.2% sits seventh leaguewide, ahead of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, and lots of other more established sluggers. Like Crow-Armstrong, he's also been sizzling recently while posting a 1.264 OPS in August.
Caglianone can do plenty of damage against a fastball, and Lauer throws one of the league's slowest at 91.1 mph (which sits in the seventh percentile). But the real opportunity lies in exploiting Lauer's slider. He throws that 25% of the time to lefties, and Caglianone is slugging .796 against that pitch.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB props for Wednesday
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Corey Scott's best NRFI bets today.
Home run pick: Elly De La Cruz (+335)
Luis Castillo is becoming further removed all the time from the threatening presence he once was at his peak. Now a member of the Chicago White Sox, he's often getting lambasted while allowing a 9.7% barrel rate that rests in the 17th percentile leaguewide.
The veteran leans heavily on a fastball-slider mix against lefties, and the switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will hit from that side. The run value on Castillo's four-seamer has been declining rapidly, falling from 11 last year to minus-5 now, per Baseball Savant.
That's a dangerous offering to throw De La Cruz, whose 93.8 mph average exit velocity rests seventh MLB-wide. De La Cruz, whose hard-hit rate has risen from 44.3% last year to 52.4% now, also excels against sliders while posting an .828 slugging percentage this season.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+286)
- Jac Caglianone home run (+332)
- Elly De La Cruz home run (+335)
Best odds: +7607 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 70-190-2 | -0.86 units β | -0.9% β |
| Home run picks | 38-127-0 | -0.41 units β | -0.01% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-48 | +0.48 units β | +0.49% β |
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