🎾 French Open Prediction 2026: Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva Final Best Bets
After both No. 8 seed Mirra Andreeva and qualifier Maja Chwalinska each won their respective semifinal matchups as underdogs, it sets up arguably the most surprising women's French Open final of all-time, with the winner being crowned a first-time Grand Slam champion.
My French Open prediction for the Chwalinska vs. Andreeva final backs the seeded Russian, who has been the much more polished player over her career. Andreeva is a -400 betting favorite with 80% implied odds, while Chwalinska had massive +20000 pre-tournament odds to win the title.
Along with my pick for Andreeva to win outright, I am making a prop wager on her total games won market.
💰 Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva predictions
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Mirra Andreeva Moneyline (-375 via BetMGM) | 5u → 1.35u | Chwalinska's run finally comes to an end against her first top 10 opponent |
| Mirra Andreeva Under 12.5 games won (-138 via bet365) | 1u → 0.73u | These are better odds for this wager than for Andreeva to win in straight sets |
Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 2.08 units
🎾 Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva odds
French Open odds via bet365.
| Wager | Maja Chwalinska | Mirra Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +300 | -400 |
| Spread | +5.5 (-138) | -5.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under | Over 19.5 (-125) | Under 19.5 (-110) |
🆚 Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva pick to win
Here's my pick to win the French Open women's semifinal, and why I'm choosing Andreeva:
Mirra Andreeva ML (-375)
To ignore Chwalinska's chances simply because she came through qualifying would be naive, considering she has beaten the likes of Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari, Diane Parry, Anna Kalinskaya, and Diana Shnaider to get to this point. However, none of those were the top 10 opponent that Andreeva is.
Andreeva's semifinal opponent, Marta Kostyuk, entered their meeting amid a 17-match winning streak, and having not lost on clay this season prior to that point. It may have been an understatement that Andreeva described herself as "in the zone" these past two matches, particularly against Kostyuk, while only losing four games and only having her serve broken once.
Only once before in women's tennis history has a qualifier gone on to win a Grand Slam title (Emma Raducanu at the US Open in 2021), and I am not about to predict that this will be the second such occurrence across the sport's vast history.
🔥 Best Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva prop pick
Mirra Andreeva Under 12.5 games won (-138)
Mirra Andreeva seemingly has three key ways to cash this Under. She can either win in straight sets without either set going to a tiebreak, lose in straight sets, or lose in three sets with her not being very competitive in the two set losses.
Compared to the -150 odds (carrying a 60% implied probability) at FanDuel and bet365 for Andreeva to win in straight sets, I'm getting slightly better value from this wager, with the expectation she will dominate in two tidy sets much like she did against Kostyuk.
Chwalinska will undoubtedly use her craftiness to change tempo, ball spin, and mix in drop shots in an attempt to frustrate Andreeva and tire her out. But experience has to be a factor with this being just Chwalinska's third Grand Slam main draw ever. Beating four top 50 players like she has to get to this point is a much different task, and ask of this qualifier, than beating a top 10 opponent for the first time on this stage.
📺 French Open Final match info: Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva
- When: Saturday, June 6
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Roland-Garros (Paris)
- How to watch: TNT Sports
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