Italian Grand Prix Odds & Betting Favorites 2026: F1 Picks & Best Bets
Kimi Antonelli will start at the back of the grid for this weekend's race, shaking up the Italian Grand Prix odds. The action gets underway on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET, airing on ESPN.
The drivers’ championship leader would have been the clear betting favorite on his home track, but the penalty has seen Lando Norris jump to the top of the odds leaderboard.
I’m backing the Brit to win his third straight race as I profile the race and offer my best bets for Monza, the fastest track on the F1 grid.
📊 Italian Grand Prix odds & betting favorites 2026
Top Italian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +150 | 40% | $15 |
| George Russell | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Charles Leclerc | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +900 | 10% | $90 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Max Verstappen | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Liam Lawson | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
All other drivers are trading at +25000 or longer
🏁 Early pick to win Italian Grand Prix
Lando Norris (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The stage is set for Norris to secure his third straight victory. The Brit’s soaring confidence correlates directly to the notable improvements McLaren has made to its MCL40.
The recent upgrades are bearing fruit, and McLaren is expected to further reduce its drag for the fastest track on the grid. With Antonelli forced to start adrift of the front row due to the enforced grid penalty, Norris is the clear go-to option.
Norris finished second at Monza last season behind winner Max Verstappen, and he’ll be hellbent on improving upon that result.
💰 Early picks & best bets for Italian Grand Prix
Here's a look at the best alternatives on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Lewis Hamilton (+700)
At the moment, there isn’t much to choose between Ferrari teammates Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc. Both are racing consistently, with the former finishing fourth at the Dutch GP and the latter fifth.
That result broke a string of three races in which Leclerc finished above Hamilton.
The seven-time champion had a strong performance at Circuit Zandvoort, but missed out on a podium finish by less than a second.
Ferrari’s SF-26 is exceptional at cornering and getting off to fast starts, the former of which won’t be as much of a factor on a track renowned for long straights and lightning-quick speeds.
Still, Hamilton has been better than George Russell and Oscar Piastri for most of the season, and I’m giving him the slight advantage over Leclerc.
George Russell (+200)
Let me first preface this by saying Russell’s +200 odds are slightly too short for my liking. That said, he’s been given a 33.33% chance to win the race because of Monza’s numerous long straightaways, which favors Mercedes’ W17.
Mercedes still has the fastest car despite Ferrari and McLaren making inroads.
And Russell has been improving since his early-season struggles, finishing on the podium four times in the previous six races. He can definitely win this race, but I’m more confident in Norris getting the job done.
🏆 Past Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren |
| 2020 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri |
| 2019 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Italian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 4 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 4 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 5 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 5 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 6 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Italian Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 6
- Time: 9 a.m .ET
- Location: Autodromo Nazionale Monza (Monza, Italy)
- How to watch: ESPN
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