Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu Predictions & Odds: Middleweight Preview
Our Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu predictions show Spence as a -140 betting favorite to beat Tszyu on Saturday at Afterpay Arena in Sydney, Australia. The card airs on PBC pay-per-view via Prime Video and DAZN, with the main card at 9 p.m. ET and the ringwalk around midnight ET.
It was signed at a 158-pound catchweight before Spence asked to move the limit to 160. Tszyu, the home fighter, is getting +110 betting odds.
🥊 Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu Predictions
See all of our boxing picks for this weekend's fights; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Market | Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick to win | Spence to win | -140 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 1.07u |
| Method of victory | Spence by decision | +275 via DraftKings | 1u -> 2.75u |
| Best bet | Over 9.5 Rounds | -120 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.67u |
🏆 Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu fight pick
See all of our boxing picks for this weekend's fights.
Errol Spence Jr. to win fight by decision (+275)
This isn't boxer against brawler. Both men walk forward, wear on the body, and drag opponents into ugly exchanges. Spence has more tools to get there, like the way he handled Danny Garcia by controlling early with the jab before outworking him inside.
I like Spence’s southpaw jab to trouble his opponent here. Tszyu advances in straight lines behind a high but reachable guard, doesn't move his head much, and accepts damage. Spence can jab to interrupt him, touch the body to pull the elbows down, hide the straight left upstairs, and turn him before he ever settles.
Tszyu's route is the orthodox right hand, which fits naturally here against a southpaw, plus the left uppercut if Spence bends over his lead leg to the body. It's a real path, and Spence isn't untouchable there. Ugas hurt him with his right hand in 2022 when he got greedy in the pocket. But Tszyu tends to load up often, and a sharp Spence can roll under it and go back downstairs.
At an older age, Spence could struggle against a pressure guy like Tszyu, who’s likely to make him work every minute. I still like Spence as the more complete fighter. I just don't have him as an absolute lock to win. The -140 odds are well placed.
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💰 Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu best bet
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Over 9.5 Rounds (-120)
The round total is the cleanest way to bet this fight. Spence hasn't fought since Terence Crawford stopped him in July 2023. This marks his middleweight debut, and he's 36 under a new trainer in Ronnie Shields. A fighter in that spot doesn't hunt a first-half knockout on the road. Expect a bit of rust early.
Tszyu is durable enough to make that necessary. He's been stopped, but by a giant in Sebastian Fundora and a monster puncher in Bakhram Murtazaliev, not by a returning welterweight in his first fight up with some bigger boxers. The likeliest version of the fight here is Spence building an early lead, Tszyu pressing late, and the cards deciding it.
📊 Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu odds
Odds via DraftKings; subject to change.
| Errol Spence Jr. | Tim Tszyu | |
| -140 | Win outright | +110 |
🆚 Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu tale of the tape
| Errol Spence Jr. | Tim Tszyu | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 72" | Reach | 70½" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 28-1 | Record | 27-3 |
| 22 | Wins by KO | 18 |
| 160 lbs | Weight | 160 lbs |
| DeSoto, Texas | Hometown | Sydney, Australia |
| First meeting | Head-to-head | First meeting |
📺 How to watch Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu fight: Middleweight
- Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: Afterpay Arena (Sydney, Australia)
- TV: PBC PPV on Prime Video and DAZN
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