🏁 Brickyard 400 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Indianapolis

After a profitable night at North Wilkesboro (thank you, Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs), we're onto the Brickyard 400 for the third "Crown Jewel" race of the season. Let's dive straight into my  NASCAR predictions at Indianapolis for the 2026 Brickyard 400.

The action is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, July 26 at 2 p.m. ET (TNT) from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Qualifying is slated for Saturday, July 25 at 1:30 p.m. ET (truTV).

📈 NASCAR odds at Indianapolis: Brickyard 400

Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Friday, July 24; subject to change.

💡 How to bet NASCAR at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

The Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval is one of the easiest tracks to handicap on the circuit. As a 2.5-mile flat oval, there aren't many tracks like it. That said, Pocono is an exception, and its second corner is directly modeled after all four corners here in Indianapolis. As a result, there tends to be considerable correlation between success there and success here.

Last year, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas dominated at Pocono before their 23XI Racing counterparts (two of whom were knocked out early at Pocono) dominated at Indianapolis. Four of the top eight drivers by average green flag speed ranked inside the top eight at both events: Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, Austin Cindric, and Carson Hocevar.

🏆 Best bet to win the Brickyard 400

Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing (No. 11)

• Denny Hamlin to win: +360 via FanDuel (0.7u)
• Denny Hamlin vs. Tyler Reddick: -130 via DraftKings (1.3u)

You may roll your eyes at me backing Hamlin two weeks in a row, but it helped us cash a matchup bet and nearly netted us an outright, too. At +360 on FanDuel, the odds aren't great, but the process points to him as a deserving favorite. Hamlin dominated at Pocono. He may not have led the most laps, but he posted the fastest average green-flag speed by 0.2 mph. 

It's also worth noting that Toyotas are expected to win this race handily. You'll find the manufacturer posted at odds of -200 (66.7%) or shorter to win this event. Pocono reveals why: the top four cars by average green-flag speed there were all Toyotas, and six of the top 10 cars in the metric were, too. Only one Chevrolet driver, Kyle Larson, led double-digit laps there; four Toyota drivers managed to accomplish that feat.  

I'm backing Hamlin to win outright and to finish ahead of Reddick. Note an interesting arbitrage betting opportunity here -- Hamlin is -130 (56.5%) to beat Reddick at DraftKings, but Reddick is +155 (39.2%) to beat Hamlin at bet365, creating just under 5% of free value to exploit.  

🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets

After Hamlin, we've got one other Toyota driver who stands out among sharp betting targets at his current odds. I've got another dart to throw on the board as well, who we targeted here a year ago but weren't rewarded despite his impressive speed.

John Hunter Nemechek, Legacy Motor Club (No. 42)

• John Hunter Nemechek to win: +8000 via BetMGM (0.13u)
• John Hunter Nemechek top 10: +280 via FanDuel (1.37u)

It hasn't been a great season for John Hunter Nemechek, but he came out of nowhere and led the most laps at Pocono (42) with the second-best average green-flag speed. He only finished fourth, but that's a very solid result for the No. 42 camp. Nemechek has led laps in both races at Indianapolis since the Cup Series returned to the oval in 2024, and I think there's plenty of value to exploit both on the outright and top 10 markets here. 

Chris Buescher, RFK Racing (No. 17)

• Chris Buescher top 10: +145 via bet365 (2u)

What an absurd price for one of the sport's most consistent drivers to have another consistent run. Buescher ranked eighth by average green-flag speed at Pocono before finishing seventh. In 2025, he ranked second in the metric and finished fourth at Pocono before ranking fifth but only finishing 14th here at Indianapolis. That's bad luck, not a lack of speed or talent. Buescher will cost you -110 to score a top 10 at DraftKings and BetMGM, which is a far more reasonable price. Lock in the extra 10% of value by playing this one at bet365.  

💰 My NASCAR bets at Indianapolis

Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the Brickyard 400 with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Total wagered: 5.5 units | Max profit: 17.44 units (Nemechek win)

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Indianapolis

Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in the Next Gen era - I'm not counting winners on the road course:

The leader of the most laps at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval has yet to win here, although this asterisk is far more applicable to Kyle Larson's 2024 win (which ended after a caution that should've been called wasn't). Tyler Reddick led 40 laps of that race and posted the best driver rating. Austin Cindric led the most laps in 2025, also with 40, but Wallace posted the best driver rating. 

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Indianapolis: 2026 Brickyard 400

• Date: Sunday, July 26
• Time: 2 p.m. ET
• Location: Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Speedway, Ind.)
• TV: TNT/HBO Max
• Track: 2.5-mile flat oval (160 laps, 400 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (50 laps), Stage 2 (50 laps), final stage (60 laps)