🏁 FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Michigan
After a thrilling (and expensive, for us) race to the finish line at Nashville, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400. I'm hoping for a better late-race run for my NASCAR predictions at Michigan.
The 2026 FireKeepers Casino 400 is scheduled for Sunday, June 7, at 3 p.m. ET (Prime Video). We're running back our biggest target from last week, Christopher Bell, after he once again showed race-winning speed, only to get foiled late.
📈 NASCAR odds at Michigan: FireKeepers Casino 400
Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Friday, June 5; subject to change.
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +375 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 |
| Tyler Reddick | +550 |
| Kyle Larson | +825 |
| Chase Briscoe | +1100 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1100 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| William Byron | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1600 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1800 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3000 |
| Ross Chastain | +3000 |
| Joey Logano | +3500 |
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💡 How to bet NASCAR at Michigan
Michigan is a 2-mile high-speed intermediate track. It's a lot like Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, and Texas in terms of tire wear and top speeds, but it's a half mile longer. High banking and a smooth surface combine to make this the fastest track on the circuit.
We'll want to target drivers who flashed impressive raw speed on other high-speed intermediates, and the list there is short. A Joe Gibbs Racing driver paced the field of drivers who completed the race in average green-flag speed at Charlotte, Texas, and Kansas. Toyota drivers controlled eight of the 12 possible top-3 spots in the metric across the four high-speed intermediate races to date.
🏆 Best bet to win the FireKeepers Casino 400
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing (No. 20)
- Christopher Bell to win: +650 via DraftKings (0.5u)
- Christopher Bell vs. Denny Hamlin: +120 via Caesars (1u)
What a difference a lap makes. With 13 laps to go, we were set to cash our Christopher Bell outright ticket at +750 - and our Christopher Bell vs. Denny Hamlin +125 matchup ticket - only for a late-race caution to force a restart that saw Bell, Hamlin, and Briscoe tangle and Hamlin emerge victorious.
The market expects another Toyota in Victory Lane on Sunday, with the manufacturer set to -150 (60%) to win at several books. We're targeting Bell to take the mantle due to the better price (Hamlin is +400 at best) and his impressive average green-flag speed.
Bell ranked second by average green-flag speed at Las Vegas, fourth at Kansas, and fifth at Texas. When we filter out cars that didn't finish the race at Charlotte (skewing their speeds higher), Bell ranked first. He also ranked first at Nashville, which uses the same high-horsepower package we'll see this weekend.
📡 SBR Edge
The last three Michigan winners all started the race in the first two rows - Denny Hamlin in 2025 (3rd), Tyler Reddick in 2024 (2nd), and Chris Buescher in 2023 (4th). Bell is traditionally a great qualifier - he ranked seventh in average starting position last year and is eighth this year. He also secured the pole here in 2023. With some weather in the forecast, Bell would also benefit from the algorithm if qualifying is rained out!
🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets
Aside from the obvious options in the Toyota camp, a few drivers stand out as particularly sharp targets for this weekend's action in Michigan, including a pair of choices from the RFK Racing stable.
Chris Buescher, RFK Racing (No. 17)
- Chris Buescher top 10: -135 via Hard Rock Bet (1.35u)
This price is tough, but when you see a number that's this off-market, you've got to click it. Buescher's top-10 odds sit between -150 and -200 just about everywhere else, and it makes a lot of sense: he and the RFK Fords are good at high-speed intermediates. Buescher has ranked 10th, eighth, seventh, and third in average green-flag speed at these tracks this year and has three top 10s to show for it. He also has an average finish of 6.3 here since 2022.
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing (No. 60)
- Ryan Preece top 10: +320 via bet365 (0.33u)
After a solid start to the year, Ryan Preece and the No. 60 Ford team need a solid finish to get back above the postseason cut line. Fortunately, Preece excelled at high-speed intermediates last year to the tune of five top 10s, including a ninth-place result here. Preece also piloted a bad No. 41 Ford to 11th here a year before and ranked top 12 by average green-flag speed at Las Vegas and Kansas.
Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports (No. 71)
- Michael McDowell top 10: +650 via DraftKings (0.17u)
McDowell hasn't been good on ovals this year, but Spire Motorsports has brought plenty of speed, with Carson Hocevar contending for the win at Texas and Daniel Suarez stealing one at Charlotte. McDowell enters this weekend following a pair of top 15s, one at Nashville and the other at Charlotte, which suggests he may have figured something out with this package. Veteran has a far better shot of finishing in the top 10 than his odds suggest.
💰 My NASCAR bets at Michigan
Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the FireKeepers Casino 400 with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at Michigan.
| Best bets | Best odds | Units → profit |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell to win | +650 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 3.25u |
| Christopher Bell vs. Denny Hamlin | +120 via Caesars | 1u -> 1.2u |
| Chris Buescher top 10 | -135 via Hard Rock | 1.35u -> 1u |
| Ryan Preece top 10 | +320 via bet365 | 0.33u -> 1.1u |
| Michael McDowell top 10 | +650 via DraftKings | 0.17u -> 1.1u |
Total wagered: 2.35 units | Max profit: 7.65 units
🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Michigan
Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Michigan in the Next Gen era:
| Race | Winner | Team | Laps led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | 5 |
| 2024 | Tyler Reddick | 23XI Racing | 15 |
| 2023 | Chris Buescher | RFK Racing | 52 |
| 2022 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing | 38 |
Although Hamlin won in 2025, he led just five of the 200 laps, with William Byron (98 laps led) dominating most of the day. Likewise, in 2024, Kyle Larson (41 laps led) and Chase Elliott (29) were faster than Reddick but did not get the results to show for it. Buescher and Harvick both won this race after leading the most laps.
📺 How to watch NASCAR at Michigan: 2026 FireKeepers Casino 400
- Date: Sunday, June 7
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Michigan International Speedway (Cambridge Township, Mich.)
- TV: Prime Video
- Track: 2-mile high-speed intermediate (200 laps, 400 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 (45 laps), Stage 2 (75 laps), final stage (80 laps)
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