🏎️ Monaco Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Best Bets for Sunday's Race
The race every F1 fan has circled on their calendar is almost here as I offer my Monaco Grand Prix predictions.
Despite winning four races in a row, Mercedes' Kimi Antonelli isn't the betting favorite, and nor is teammate George Russell. It marks the first time this season one of those drivers isn't the favorite entering race weekend.
Charles Leclerc, who is from Monaco, is the +175 betting favorite, and he's trading in front of teammate Lewis Hamilton. However, my predictions feature the team that has dominated through five races.
Sunday's race starts at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
π Monaco Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Monaco Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| George Russell | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Lando Norris | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Max Verstappen | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
All other drivers are trading at +15000 or longer.
π° Monaco Grand Prix predictions, best bets
| π° Bet | βοΈ Units | π§ Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes (+500) | 1u -> 5u | Russell endured more bad luck in Canada. His luck is about to change |
| Car to win the race: Mercedes (+225) | 1u -> 2.25u | Mercedes has been dominant, and I'm backing them until they falter |
| Top 3 finish: Kimi Antonelli (+100) | 1u -> 1u | Antonelli has won 3 of 5 poles and four races in a row |
Total wagered: 3.5 units | Max profit: 8.25 units
π Pick to win Monaco Grand Prix: George Russell
Bad luck cost Russell a chance to win in two of the previous three races. At the Japanese GP, the safety car's unfortunate timing and a battery issue derailed his chances, and a power-unit failure ended his race at the Canadian GP.
Speaking of the Canadian GP, Russell appeared to be back at his best, even on track for his first victory since the opening race in Melbourne. After winning the sprint race in Montreal, Russell also took pole position. It was his second qualifying win in five races.
Another qualifying victory will set him up nicely at a track that has seen 16 of 22 winners since 2003 enter the race in pole position.
π₯ Car to win the race: Mercedes
Mercedes hasn't lost a race yet. Other teams, namely McLaren and Ferrari, are closing the gap, evidenced by recent results. Hamilton finished second in Canada, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri were on the podium in Miami, while Piastri and Leclerc were second and third in Japan.
However, no team has proven they can beat Mercedes. Until they do, I'm backing Mercedes. As mentioned, winning the Monaco GP is often predicated on securing pole position, which Mercedes has done in all five races thus far.
That's more than enough to convince me.
💡 Monaco Grand Prix favorites
Providing the Monaco Grand Prix favorites, I offer analysis on which drivers have the best chance of winning on Sunday.
π₯ Top 3 finish at Monaco Grand Prix: Kimi Antonelli
I love Leclerc to finish among the top three, but his -212 price is too expensive for my liking. So, I'm pivoting to Antonelli, who has won four straight races and, at times, has appeared unbeatable.
He'll struggle more in a race that's almost more challenging to gain significant separation, especially if you're not first off the start.
However, Antonelli has proven he has more than enough composure. That, combined with current swagger and top-of-class car, has me confident entering pre-race proceedings. I'm not overly concerned about the much slower corners.
π‘ How I'm betting the Monaco Grand Prix
I would have liked to feature Leclerc in my Monaco Grand Prix best bets. But I don't think he will win, and his odds to finish in the top three are too short.
So, I'm going all in with Mercedes. Their dominance thus far doesn't provide any reasons for concern or hesitation. Sure, Leclerc is the betting favorite, but that has a lot to do with the Circuit de Monaco being his home track.
I'm taking a risk with Russell, giving him the benefit of the doubt over the last three races. Hopefully, his bad luck won't persist. I'm confident enough in all three wagers to invest a unit each. Each unit is $10.
π Past Monaco Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Sergio PΓ©rez | Red Bull-RBPT |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
ποΈ 2026 Monaco Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, June 5 @ 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, June 5 @ 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, June 6 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, June 6 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, June 7 @ 9 a.m. ET
πΊ How to watch 2026 Monaco Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, June 7
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit de Monaco (Monaco)
- How to watch: ESPN
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