🎮 Game of the Year Odds & Predictions: Can Anything Upset GTA 6 in 2026?

The Game Awards have become the video game equivalent of the Oscars since the first show in 2014. And much like how Best Picture is the crown jewel for filmmakers, the Game of the Year award is the most coveted prize for developers worldwide.

Last year, the 2025 Game Awards drew 171 million streams across all platforms, and that number figures to climb again in 2026 with arguably the most anticipated release in gaming history looming over the rest of the field: Grand Theft Auto VI.

Right now, Rockstar’s highly-anticipated blockbuster is the heavy favorite to win Game of the Year across prediction market apps, but is there any value in backing GTA 6? After the summer games showcases over the last week, I've broken down this year's market with a look at the contenders, what to make of GTA 6 as a massive favorite, and how to handicap a potential GTA delay or another sleeper hit stealing its spotlight.

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📈 2026 Game of the Year odds: Which game will win GOTY?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The latest odds at Kalshi feature Grand Theft Auto VI as the heavy favorite to win GOTY at 59% with one share at 59 cents returning $1 in total if it wins the award. Resident Evil Requiem (13%) and Crimson Desert (7%) sit at a distant second and third, respectively.

The market has been naturally volatile as the year has progressed and more games have come out, though the lowest GTA 6's odds have been since the start of the year is 39.8% on March 17. In the months since, the market’s confidence in Rockstar’s next game has strengthened as Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick recently insisted it will release on time after two lengthy delays led to the current Nov. 19 target date.

Further down the list, Pragmata and Marvel’s Wolverine sit with a 6% chance, while multiple games rated among the top 10 best games of the year on Metacritic so far - including Mina the Hollower, Forza Horizon 6, Pokemon Pokopia, and 007 First Light - aren’t even among the top options across prediction markets entering the summer.

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🌴 Will GTA 6 win Game of the Year?

Rockstar's long-awaited open-world epic has won Most Anticipated Game at the last two Game Awards ceremonies, and it's currently the runaway GOTY favorite at 59% despite the fact that, as of early June, nobody outside of Rockstar's development team has seen actual gameplay of GTA 6.

The game is supposedly five months from release, and the public has seen two trailers - the last of which dropped in May 2025, more than a year ago. Most major AAA releases have shown extensive gameplay or held preview events well before the five-month mark. Rockstar operates differently than any other studio in the industry, but the silence has been loud enough that prediction markets still price in a 17% chance of another delay despite repeated public assurances from Zelnick that Nov. 19 is THE date.

Will GTA 6 get delayed again?

GTA 6 has already been delayed twice publicly: first from Fall 2025 to May 26, 2026, then again to Nov. 19, 2026. In May, Zelnick himself admitted in a podcast appearance that the game is "18 months behind the original date," which points to an internal third delay that was never announced. Zelnick said he felt "really good" about the release date right before both prior delays. What’s to say that couldn’t happen again?

The strongest case for the Nov. 19 date holding firm has to do with financials. Take-Two's fiscal projections have almost certainly built GTA 6 revenue into its Q3 numbers. Another delay could be a catastrophic signal to investors in the company.

If GTA 6 releases Nov. 19 and delivers on its promise, it would almost certainly render the rest of the GOTY field irrelevant. The game would have roughly three weeks before The Game Awards eligibility window closes and jury ballots are due, which is a tight but workable window for critics to assess it. A 90+ Metacritic score combined with Rockstar's cultural footprint would make it extraordinarily difficult to beat.

What happens if GTA releases too late?

Essentially, backing GTA 6 in this market is a parlay on three things going right: it releases on time, it reviews well, and it clears the eligibility deadline.

If GTA 6 is delayed again past the eligibility cutoff, the entire market would reshuffle overnight. In that scenario, the 59% currently sitting behind GTA 6 has to go somewhere, and a few games that have already been released this year would become dramatically more attractive to back in this market. That's where I have my eyes entering the summer.

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🎮 Which games could win GOTY?

While GTA 6 is the obvious favorite right now, a delay or poor reviews could derail Rockstar's signature release and open the door for other top titles to steal Game of the Year honors away from the year's most anticipated release. Here are my top picks:

Resident Evil Requiem

If the deadline for submissions were today, Requiem would probably be my personal vote for Game of the Year. RE:9 was the perfect blend of the first-person survival horror gameplay introduced first in Resident Evil: Biohazard and expanded upon in Resident Evil: Village with the third-person action of the series’ recent remakes. Leon Kennedy is also a Mount Rushmore-level video game character, and seeing him walk into RPD for the first time since the events of Resident Evil 2 hit me so hard it felt like taking one of his roundhouse kicks straight to the heart.

007 First Light

I'm about halfway through the main story of 007 First Light, and it's everything I was hoping it would be. I was already a big fan of IO Interactive’s work on the Hitman trilogy, and the way the studio has iterated on the sandbox-style mission approach in 007 is really special. It’s hard to beat the feeling of sneaking into a place you’re not supposed to be, trying to bluff your way out of it, and, once that fails, hurling that nearby wine bottle straight at the security guard’s forehead before disarming him and whipping his pistol at his partner on the other side of the room. Chef's kiss.

Mina the Hollower

Mina the Hollower has unlocked a nostalgia in my body for Gameboy Advance-era games I didn’t know I had, and that was probably because I was trash at games back then and could barely beat a level of Sonic Advance 2 without turning the game off in a blind rage. Mina the Hollower also brings back some of that feeling because, well, it’s damn hard. I’ve only played a few hours so far, but I can tell why this game is the No. 1 rated release on Metacritic so far in 2026. It somehow scratches the Dark Souls itch and old-school Legend of Zelda itch all at once. Also, a slow clap to whoever put together the score for this game. I can’t recommend it enough.

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📅 Top games releasing in 2026

Much like GTA 6, there are also a whole host of games yet to be released that could contend for Game of the Year in 2026. Here's a look at some of the top upcoming releases this year and which games I think could break into the GOTY conversion:

Marvel's Wolverine

Insomniac Games has produced three consecutive PlayStation-exclusive hits - Spider-Man, Miles Morales, and Spider-Man 2 - and Marvel's Wolverine is the studio's most anticipated release yet. The game showed off extended gameplay at PlayStation's June State of Play, where Sony shared a closer look at brutal combat and new story details ahead of its September 15 PS5-exclusive launch. Planned as the first entry in an X-Men trilogy, it features Jean Grey, Sabretooth, and other classic Marvel characters alongside Wolverine as he confronts a group known as the Reavers.

I can already tell the ceiling is going to be high for this game. Insomniac has earned Metacritic scores of 87, 85, and 90 across its last three major releases. Sony has confirmed that its single-player narrative games will remain PlayStation exclusives permanently, meaning Wolverine won't reach PC players, which could limit its broader cultural footprint. But Insomniac's track record and the Marvel brand give this game the type of GOTY upside few other titles on this list can match.

Control Resonant

Remedy Entertainment's sequel to its 2019 cult classic is a quintessential sleeper hit that could crash the GOTY party later this year. Control Resonant received an extended story trailer at the June State of Play that follows Dylan Faden - deployed by the Federal Bureau of Control at the height of a reality-bending cosmic crisis - across a paranaturally warped Manhattan, wielding new abilities and a shapeshifting melee weapon in an open-ended action-adventure RPG.

The original Control won multiple GOTY awards in 2019 and built one of gaming's most devoted followings. Resonant is described as both a sequel and a new entry point, which looks to expand its audience considerably beyond the fan base of the first game. Its release date of Sept. 24 is also nearly ideal timing from an awards-season standpoint. If Control Resonant reviews at or above 90, it has a legitimate shot in this market.

The Blood of Dawnwalker

One of my most anticipated games personally is a debut release from a studio you've likely never heard of. The Blood of Dawnwalker is developed by Rebel Wolves, which is formed by former CD Projekt Red developers (Witcher 3, Cyberpunk 2077) and published by Bandai Namco. Set in 14th-century Europe during the Black Death, it follows Coen - a half-human, half-vampire warrior who must use his vampiric abilities to save his family from a powerful vampire lord.

Early preview coverage from Game Informer, which visited Rebel Wolves' Warsaw studio for a hands-on look, praised the game’s time-management mechanics, choice-driven quest design, and day/night cycle. The game takes a "narrative samples" approach where players have one primary goal - infiltrating a castle within 30 days - while all other quests act as optional missions that feed into that objective. It releases Sept. 3, making it the earliest of the three fall contenders with enough room to potentially sway voters.

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📜 Past Game of the Year winners

What makes a Game of the Year winner?

Based on historical precedent, critical consensus is the single most reliable predictor of who takes home Game of the Year. Every winner since the show launched in 2014 has scored at least an 85 on Metacritic, and 10 of the 12 sit at 90 or above. The two outliers - Dragon Age: Inquisition (85) and It Takes Two (88) - both won in years without a dominant critical frontrunner. When a game crosses 90 and generates genuine awards-circuit momentum, it has historically been very difficult to beat.

Timing matters almost as much as score. The winners list skews heavily toward spring and fall releases. God of War, Sekiro, The Last of Us Part II, Elden Ring, and Clair Obscur all released between April and November of their respective years and carried that momentum into December. It Takes Two is the notable exception, releasing in March 2021 and winning anyway. But as noted above, that was a year without a single dominant blockbuster to challenge it.

Sony is also the most decorated publisher in the history of this award, with three wins between God of War, The Last of Us Part II, and Astro Bot. That context is relevant to this year's field: if GTA 6 misses eligibility, one of the strongest remaining contenders is Marvel's Wolverine, a Sony-published release landing in September.

That history could provide Wolverine with the momentum it needs to be in the GOTY conversation. Insomniac has already delivered three consecutive critical hits under the PlayStation banner, and if Wolverine reviews anywhere near those previous efforts, Sony's jury credibility and first-party marketing muscle give it a real structural advantage over its competitors.

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💰 What should you back for GOTY?

The genuine answer is that the market has two completely different shapes depending on what Rockstar does in November. If GTA 6 releases on time and reviews well, it will likely win. While a 59% chance for an unreleased game may feel high, it makes sense for a game of this cultural magnitude hitting the window cleanly. If anything, it might be a little underpriced.

The more interesting question is where to put your money if you think the chances of a delay probability are higher than the market does. In that scenario, the value is almost certainly in the fall contenders rather than the games that have already released. Resident Evil Requiem is the safest name in the existing market, but a February release winning in a year this crowded would be historically unprecedented.

Marvel's Wolverine and Control Resonant are the stronger plays: both land in September, both come from studios with proven GOTY pedigree, and neither is currently listed at odds that reflect how viable they become the moment GTA 6 slips. If either opens in the market at favorable odds following a delay announcement, that's the window to take advantage of.

The true dark horse play is The Blood of Dawnwalker. It isn't listed at prediction markets yet, as it comes from a first-time studio and could just as easily disappoint as deliver. But it's directed by the man behind two of the greatest RPGs ever made with ideal awards-season timing in September, and early previews suggest it has the ambition to back up the pedigree. If it reviews at 90 or above, it will be in this conversation whether the market is ready for it or not. That's the game I'll have my eyes on above all else.

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📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For video game markets like the Game of the Year award, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.

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💡 Why should I trade on Game of the Year at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
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• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.