Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions & Odds 2026: NASCAR Picks, Props, Best Bets at Sonoma

We cashed three top-10 slips last week at Naval Base Coronado - Michael McDowell (-150), Ryan Blaney (+180), and Zane Smith (+1200) - to score a massive 9.27-unit profit. Let's keep the road course momentum rolling as we dive into my NASCAR predictions at Sonoma. 

The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is scheduled for Sunday, June 28 at 3:30 p.m. (TNT, truTV, HBO Max) at Sonoma Raceway. Shane van Gisbergen is once again a sizeable favorite for this weekend's race, clocking in at odds of -160 (61.5% implied probability) on BetMGM.

📈 NASCAR odds at Sonoma: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Latest NASCAR odds at BetMGM as of Friday, June 26; subject to change.

💡 How to bet NASCAR at Sonoma

Sonoma, one of the two permanent road courses that has been a mainstay of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule for decades, measures about two miles in length and features 110 laps. While street courses still offer some predictive value for Sonoma, traditional venues with permanent surfaces, especially recently repaved ones like Sonoma, produce less tire wear. 

A quick look at the two traditional road course events and the one street course reveals that just two drivers ranked inside the top 10 by average green-flag speed across all events: Tyler Reddick (1st, 4th, 10th) and Ryan Blaney (2nd, 5th, 5th). Shane van Gisbergen (2nd, 1st, 27th) misses the cut largely due to an accident suffered early in last weekend's race.  

🏆 Best bet to win Toyota/Save Mart 350

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing (No. 97)

• Shane van Gisbergen to win: -150 via bet365 (3u)

I can't recall the last time I recommended laying an outright winner with odds this short, but with some books willing to sell SVG for -150 (60%), you've got to consider buying it. The New Zealander dominated this race last year, leading 97 of 110 laps after starting from the pole, marking one of three wins on permanent road courses on the year. He also led the event in average green-flag speed.

SVG doesn't have the same dominant results this year that he did last year, but when you look under the hood, everything else is still there. He posted the third-best average green-flag speed at COTA en route to a runner-up finish. Then, he posted the best average green-flag speed at Watkins Glen by 0.68 mph - a larger gap than the one between second-ranked Michael McDowell and seventh-ranked Ryan Preece.

While last weekend's race at Naval Base Coronado was a good reminder that bad luck can come for anyone, including SVG, he has started no worse than second in three career Cup and O'Reilly Parts Series starts at Sonoma, and he should be able to drive away from the risk of danger with far more ease than at a narrow, barrier-bounded street course.

🔥 More NASCAR picks & prop bets

While I usually recommend fading SVG, I can't this week, but there are a couple of drivers that stand out as smart plays further down the board. Blaney (+2000 at BetMGM) and Reddick (+900) are good contrarian outright picks, but there is almost no value on them to score top-10 results. As a result, I've found two names further down the board who are worthy of your consideration.

Chris Buescher, RFK Racing (No. 17)

• Chris Buescher to win: +2500 via DraftKings (0.18u)
• Chris Buescher top 10: -120 via DraftKings (2.4u)

While he didn't get a win to show for it, Buescher paced the field in average green-flag speed at Naval Base Coronado last week. That marked an important recovery after he struggled to a 12th-place finish (on the 24th-ranked average green-flag speed) at Watkins Glen. Ford's lack of pace is a well-noted issue this year, but I trust Buescher to build on his strong showing last week.

In the Next Gen era, Buescher has three top 10s - all of which were also top 5s - at Sonoma. He couldn't put it all together here last year, finishing just 16th, but last week's top 10 at Naval Base Coronado marked his 18th top 10 over the 26 road and street course races since 2022, good for a hit rate of 69.2%, edging out the price of -120 (55.4%) on DraftKings. 

Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports (No. 38)

• Zane Smith top 10: +500 via DraftKings (0.67u)

NASCAR betting is all about timing. Last week, we cashed Smith to score a top 10 on a road course at +1200 for a six-unit profit, but this week, the same wager is +500. But as I wrote last week, it appears increasingly likely that Smith has finally turned a corner on road courses and is showing the talent with which he scored a pair of Truck Series wins at COTA (in addition to two runner-up finishes at Mid-Ohio and another at Sonoma). He was sixth by average green-flag speed last week and 13th at Watkins Glen. 

💰 My NASCAR bets at Sonoma

Here are the actual NASCAR bets I'm making for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 with the best odds from our best sports betting sites for Sunday's race at Sonoma.

Total wagered: 6.25 units | Max profit: 7.17 units (Shane van Gisbergen win)

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Sonoma

Here is a list of every NASCAR race winner at Sonoma in the Next Gen era:

Three of the four Sonoma winners in the Next Gen era also led the most laps. The lone exception came in 2024, when Tyler Reddick won the first stage and led 35 laps, Chris Buescher won the second stage and led 32 laps, but both ultimately lost to Kyle Larson, who still posted the best driver rating in the race.

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Sonoma: 2026 Toyota/Save Mart 350

• Date: Sunday, June 28
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Sonoma Raceway (Sonoma, Calif.)
• TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max
• Track: 1.99-mile permanent road course (110 laps, 218.9 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (25 laps), Stage 2 (30 laps), final stage (45 laps)